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  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 11/25/2009

    In This Issue:

    A Santa Claus Rally Seems Unlikely
    But We Could Have A Big January Bounce
    Get Your Buy List Ready
    A Dollar Obituary Is Premature
    Cash Is Still King
    It's Time To Start Building A Family Fortune
    The Bottom Line This Week

    Last month we reported that investors were starting to become very cautious. Since then, several positive earnings reports encouraged traders to add more stocks to their portfolios. The new purchases pushed the Dow and the Nasdaq up 4.7% and 3.4% respectively. It was a great start to the Holiday Season.

  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 12/18/2008

    In This Issue:

    The Economy Is Bad, But Stocks Are Priced For Worse
    Stocks Outshine Their Competition
    Behold The Halo Effect
    A January Bounce Seems Likely
    Energy And Foreign Growth Are Positives
    We May Be Halfway Through The Economic Downturn
    What Everybody Knows...
    The Bottom Line This Week

    Last week we received additional signals that a bear rally is probably in the works. During the five day period, investors were treated to a smorgasbord of bad news. Congress turned thumbs down on bailing out the Big Three automakers. Unemployment surged to a 26 year high. T-Bill returns dropped to essentially zero. Many bellwether companies issued earnings warnings. Several firms cut their dividends, and investors were shocked by a $50 billion hedge fund collapse.

    So what did the market do? It barely budged. The Dow eased down less than 0.1%. The Nasdaq actually rose 2.1%. The market was also strong during the first three days of the current week. In our opinion, such resilience in the face of disturbing economic events indicates that investors are probably getting ready to do some buying.

  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 12/11/2008

    In This Issue:

    The Long-Awaited Bear Rally May Be Starting
    Although Weak, Some Hopeful Economic Signs Are Emerging
    Credit Is Slowly Opening Up Again
    If Fear Subsides, The Outlook Will Improve Immediately
    A Recovery Will Bring Unwelcome Inflation
    The Bottom Line This Week

    As we reported in our previous issue, the sharp stock market advance over the Thanksgiving holiday came to a crashing end on December 1. However, prices have been stronger since then. Although the gains weren't enough to fully erase the earlier plunge, the Dow and the Nasdaq managed to end last week down just 2.2% and 1.7% respectively. From Monday to Wednesday of the current week, the market managed to make some additional gains.

    It's significant that the price increases occurred while more bad economic news was breaking. A manufacturing decline, an auto sales plunge, and more job losses should have pushed stocks down several more notches. The fact that investors largely ignored the negatives may indicate that the bear market is close to a bottom.

  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 11/26/2008

    Special Issue:

    When Deflation Comes,
    Cash Is King

    When everybody is certain the economy and stocks will move a particular way, usually just the opposite occurs. That's just what happened this summer when deflation suddenly overtook inflation as America's primary economic problem. Mr. Murphy, of Murphy's Law, seems to take particular pleasure in messing up the plans of investors.

    Deflation, of course, is just the opposite of inflation. Instead of seeing the value of money fall and the prices of goods rise, cash becomes much more valuable and prices decrease.

    Deflation is clearly in control today as homes, oil, and even precious metals plummet in price. Now food costs are beginning to sink. Jobs are being lost in most industries. Most experts think that wages will also begin to fall within a few months.

    The public is starting to show the effects of the deflationary squeeze. People are selling motor homes, pleasure boats, and many other big ticket items to raise badly needed cash. A disturbing 10% of Ohio's adult population is on food stamps. Of course, retail sales are also weakening.