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  • QE3 and Thee – The AIA Advocate Newsletter

    In This Issue: QE3 and Thee But Will It Work? The Unemployment Dilemma There Are Some Economic Bright Spots What Happened To Inflation? The Bottom Line The Fed slipped a skyrocket under the stock market earlier this month when it announced QE3. Although...
  • Many Excellent Stocks Are Oversold – The AIA Advocate Newsletter

    In This Issue: The Economy, The Economy, The Economy The Poor Numbers Don’t Fit What We See There Is No Shortage Of Cash Confidence Is Everything All Eyes Are On The Fed Inflation Is Baaaaaack Many Excellent Stocks Are Oversold The Bottom Line This...
  • China’s Inflation Is Coming Our way – The AIA Advocate Newsletter

    In This Issue: If The Economy Falters, Expect A QE3 Rescue Most Blue Chip Stock Values Remain Attractive China’s Inflation Is Coming Our way TIPS Are Becoming Popular Again Another Effective Inflation Hedge The Bottom Line This Month The stock market...
  • Long-Term Investors Will Welcome A Wall Street Sale - The AIA Advocate Newsletter

    In This Issue: Stocks Are Overdue For A Correction Lock In Your Profits With Stop-Loss Orders Long-Term Investors Will Welcome A Wall Street Sale Inflation Is Baaaaack! The Bottom Line Since our last newsletter in mid-January, the stock market continued...
  • The Dollar Is On The Hot Seat – The AIA Advocate Newsletter Week of 10/28/2010

    In This Issue: Earnings Continue To Impress Investors A Second Stimulus Program Is Due To Begin The Dollar Is On The Hot Seat Many Investors Expect Rising Inflation The Bottom Line Stocks continued their happy advance during October. Since our last newsletter...
  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 07/29/2010

    In This Issue:

    Double Dip, Or Onward & Upward?
    Many Winners Should Have Further To Go
    Inflation, Deflation – Or Neither?
    Beating The Bushes For Returns
    The Bottom Line

    After nearly six weeks of uncertainty, investors finally decided the outlook for the economy was improving enough to justify higher stock prices. Since our last newsletter in June, the Dow and the Nasdaq went up 3.4% and 2.1% respectively. Nearly all the gains came during the last two weeks.

    Double Dip, Or Onward & Upward?

    The stock gains notwithstanding, the recovery is still on shaky ground. With growth at an anemic 2.5%, it would not take much good or bad news to push the economy either way.

    To make the matter even harder to call, many industries are growing strongly, but others are still losing money.

    On the positive side of growth are the multinational blue chips that do a great deal of business overseas. Their profits are rolling in thanks to the healthy global economy. China, India, Southeast Asia, much of South America and many other regions have cooled off a bit, but most analysts think that's all to the good.

  • Africa: Sleeper Investment of the Century

    In This Issue:

    No Direction Home
    The Inflation/Deflation Balance Is Precarious
    Top Investments For Core Portfolios
    Africa: Sleeper Investment Of The Century
    The Bottom Line This Week

    Since our last issue, the stock market roller coaster made several more trips around the track. At this writing, prices are nearly back where they started with the Dow up marginally 0.3% and the Nasdaq off 0.7%. Although the market appears to be taking a breather at present, we think investors should expect a volatile summer.

    No Direction Home

    The stock market's gyrations reflect similar moves in most economic indicators. Not only are the key signals mixed, they often change direction from one week to the next.

    It doesn't help that every few days or so another black swan shows up to make investors nervous. The most recent unwelcome incidents include the disastrous BP oil gusher in the Gulf of Mexico, the high profile raid on the Gaza "peace" flotilla, the torpedoed South Korean patrol ship, and the plunging euro. There is a growing feeling among millions of people that political and economic stability in many parts of the world are hanging by a thread.

    At the same time, however, many multinational companies are reporting very good earnings. In addition, consumers are still paying visits to the mall although they are being more careful with their money. The summer vacation season is also off to a good start. In short, much of the evening news is grim but the day to day reality for most Americans is pretty good.

  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 11/25/2009

    In This Issue:

    A Santa Claus Rally Seems Unlikely
    But We Could Have A Big January Bounce
    Get Your Buy List Ready
    A Dollar Obituary Is Premature
    Cash Is Still King
    It's Time To Start Building A Family Fortune
    The Bottom Line This Week

    Last month we reported that investors were starting to become very cautious. Since then, several positive earnings reports encouraged traders to add more stocks to their portfolios. The new purchases pushed the Dow and the Nasdaq up 4.7% and 3.4% respectively. It was a great start to the Holiday Season.

  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 09/24/2009

    In This Issue:

    Will The Right Fundamentals Please Stand Up?
    The "Uncle Sam Effect"
    Small Investors Are Coming Back To Stocks
    Inflation Fears Are Increasing
    First Some Bad News, Then Some Good News
    Easy Index Gains May Be Over
    These Four Favorites Should Stay On Top
    And So Should China
    The Bottom Line This Week

    Despite all the worries about overvalued stocks, the market is continuing to advance. To be sure, the gains aren't coming by leaps and bounds anymore - but they are still adding up nicely. Since our last newsletter, the Dow and the Nasdaq rose another 1.8% and 5.1% respectively.

    Will The Right Fundamentals Please Stand Up?

    When it comes to stock fundamentals, value is in the eye of the beholder. Traditionalists believe the market is too expensive for the weak economic recovery they expect to see. The analysts argue that the economy may take over a year to justify the whopping 46% gain in the Dow since March. Some analysts think the recovery will never gain the necessary strength.

  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 12/11/2008

    In This Issue:

    The Long-Awaited Bear Rally May Be Starting
    Although Weak, Some Hopeful Economic Signs Are Emerging
    Credit Is Slowly Opening Up Again
    If Fear Subsides, The Outlook Will Improve Immediately
    A Recovery Will Bring Unwelcome Inflation
    The Bottom Line This Week

    As we reported in our previous issue, the sharp stock market advance over the Thanksgiving holiday came to a crashing end on December 1. However, prices have been stronger since then. Although the gains weren't enough to fully erase the earlier plunge, the Dow and the Nasdaq managed to end last week down just 2.2% and 1.7% respectively. From Monday to Wednesday of the current week, the market managed to make some additional gains.

    It's significant that the price increases occurred while more bad economic news was breaking. A manufacturing decline, an auto sales plunge, and more job losses should have pushed stocks down several more notches. The fact that investors largely ignored the negatives may indicate that the bear market is close to a bottom.

  • Association for Investor Awareness - Week of 11/26/2008

    Special Issue:

    When Deflation Comes,
    Cash Is King

    When everybody is certain the economy and stocks will move a particular way, usually just the opposite occurs. That's just what happened this summer when deflation suddenly overtook inflation as America's primary economic problem. Mr. Murphy, of Murphy's Law, seems to take particular pleasure in messing up the plans of investors.

    Deflation, of course, is just the opposite of inflation. Instead of seeing the value of money fall and the prices of goods rise, cash becomes much more valuable and prices decrease.

    Deflation is clearly in control today as homes, oil, and even precious metals plummet in price. Now food costs are beginning to sink. Jobs are being lost in most industries. Most experts think that wages will also begin to fall within a few months.

    The public is starting to show the effects of the deflationary squeeze. People are selling motor homes, pleasure boats, and many other big ticket items to raise badly needed cash. A disturbing 10% of Ohio's adult population is on food stamps. Of course, retail sales are also weakening.

  • Week of 08/28/2008

    In This Issue:

    Tensions Between The U.S. And Russia Are Serious
    Oil And Commodities React To The Threat
    Defense Stocks Look Even Better Than Last Week
    And So Does The Dollar
    Inflation vs Deflation Contest Heats Up
    But Inflation Should End Up With The Gold
    The Bottom Line This Week

    Last week the stock market revealed that it has more underlying strength than world events would seem to justify. If the market is once again acting as a leading indicator of the future, the outlook is brighter than is generally supposed.

    Despite the fact that a new cold war seems to be underway, the Dow was only off 0.3% last week. The Nasdaq declined 1.5%. The market dropped 242 points when it reopened on Monday, but it regained nearly half the loss on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Our feeling is that investors want to be buyers and can only be held back by disturbing news. That's a big difference from a bear market mentality when bad news drives prices and good news is ignored.

  • Week of 08/21/2008

    In This Issue:

    Inflation Spike Seems Unlikely To Last
    The Dollar Rally Gathers Strength
    Russians In Georgia Have Investors Spooked
    The Outlook Is Good For U.S. Defense Companies
    In A Low Yield World, Dividends Shine
    The Bottom Line This Week

    The stock rally lost some ground last week which made many investors worry that the run may be coming to an end. That fear was justified since the main engine behind the rally -falling oil prices- continued to play their part. Even with oil moving down to the $112 range, the Dow fell 0.6% for the week.

    Small stocks moved in the opposite direction to their larger cousins as the Nasdaq posted a 1.6% advance. In its own way, the small stock upturn also made investors nervous. The bounce was another in a long list of confusing situations that are at work in the market today.