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TECHNICAL VIEW . The Principle of History. Two historical technical observations today: 1. Capitulation: Where the Heck is It? CNBC keeps interviewing floor traders and reporting from the New York Stock Exchange that everyone there is anxiously looking for that big bout of capitulation, selling, to end...
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UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Witten Friday, June 20th, 2008: 6:30 a.m. Looked to me like yesterday’s stock market rally was a knee-jerk reaction to China announcing it was going to raise oil prices by 17%. Crude dove on the news while stocks jumped. But if one thinks it through, is China raising...
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Wednesda y, June 18 th , 2008 : Woke up singing this morning … “Doo-da, Doo-da”… and I don’t sing! Watched the coronation of the Boston Celtics as NBA champs last night … “Goin’ to run all night, Goin’ to run all day” … and loved this...
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The Principle of History. Knowing one’s history gives us guidelines and a basis to work from. So yesterday I began to compare the last Papa Bear market we lived through, 1973-1974, which encompassed the first really oil crisis, to today’s ongoing bear market and oil shock. I said I was printing...
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THE BIG PICTURE & THE ECONOMY Today’s Big Picture view comes down to whether the US economy is going into a severe, long lasting recession or not. My belief remains that we are, that’s where today’s slow-motion economic slowdown is leading us, but the jury remains out & lots...
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GLOBAL VIEW . Especially Important View Today! I’m looking around at as many global stock markets as possible this morning. To refresh myself as to exactly where they stand and what that bodes for the future. Broad brush thinking-wise, I want to confirm a global uptrend has now started if at all possible...
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HISTORY VIEW. Looking Back Again in History, to 1938 . Yesterday CNBC was highlighting that we have to go back to 1938 to find such a big start (1 day) to the second quarter. Then I watched Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab , say on Bloomberg audio/video that we also have...
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CHAIRMAN BERNANKE: “HOLD INTEREST RATES STEADY ON TUESDAY!” Hey, why not? What have we got to lose? Cutting interest rates sure isn’t working, right? Along with setting interest rate policy, the Fed has another role, that is being the “lender of last resort.” They’ve sure done that this past Tuesday...
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THE ECONOMY: Weekly Review: Monday, March 10th, 2008 Here’s a quote I could lead off the economy or stock market sections with, from www.comstockfunds.com : “The world is burdened by excessive debt and leverage throughout a large part of the financial system, and the working off of the debt and deleveraging...
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LONG US GOVERNMENT BOND VIEW . Bottom Fishing. Yep, I keep fishing for a bottom in the “long” US Treasury bond. I mean a bottom in yield, a top in price. All logic I can come up with says the 25-year bull market run to ever lower long term interest rates is over or ending. All but two items. One , the...