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  • The Birth/Death Ratio

    The Birth/Death Ratio Is the economy slowing down or is it getting ready to go on a new tear? Judging by the run-up in the Dow, the answer is a major turnaround for the economy in the last half of the year, from the close-to-recession numbers of the first quarter. So, what has happened to my forecast...
  • Party Like It's 1999

    Introduction The stock market liked both the retail sales and the inflation numbers that were released over the last two days, with the Dow posting successive all-time highs. This week we look behind the headlines and a little deeper into those numbers to see if there is some justification for the exuberance...
  • The Recession of 2007

    Introduction One of my favorite cartoons of all time is that of a very scrawny mouse caught out in an open field with a rather large hawk swooping down on it. There is no place to run, no place to hide. All the mouse can do is face the hawk and give him the bird, so to speak. The caption runs something...
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