The Return of Muddle Through The dollar reaches new lows. The housing market shows no sign of a bottom. Oil almost touches $84 before backing off. Interest rates go up after the Fed cuts. So naturally the stock market keeps climbing. But then, consumer spending came in strong, employment looks like it...
Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? The Shocker in the Employment Numbers Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? Will A Cut Make Any Difference? How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy Home Again, Home Again The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data...
Introduction There is an arcane debate going on in economic circles. How fast can the economy grow without inflation becoming a problem? The answer may be, not as fast as we thought. And the answer matters because the people who have their fingers on the interest-rate trigger take this arcane stuff seriously...
Introduction Are we in for a soft or a hard landing? Did retail sales slow, as the data suggest, or is the underlying data quite bullish? We will look at the arguments, and then look at the most reliable of all economic indicators to see if we can get an idea as to which view is right. But first, I want...
Introduction I had occasion to be in my car this morning, listening to CNBC, when the host of the show (Bob Pisani, a very nice gentleman on the few occasions I have had the opportunity to meet him) was arguing with a modestly bearish guest. Yes, there are a lot of reasons for concern noted by bears...