Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? The Shocker in the Employment Numbers Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? Will A Cut Make Any Difference? How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy Home Again, Home Again The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data...
Introduction This week we look at length at an outstanding new book just hitting the bookstores by good friend Paul McCulley (of Pimco fame), called Your Financial Edge . The main themes will give me an opportunity to weave in a few thoughts about some recent data, and a lengthy telephone interview with...
Introduction This week's Outside the Box is comprised of 2 smaller articles that I believe will, collectively, provide you with some interesting information to digest. The 1st article will be a follow up piece to last week's Outside the Box where I featured a commentary by Morgan Stanley's...
Introduction I am taking some time off from writing over the holidays, but good friend Barry Ritholtz offered to write this week's letter. It is a very thought-provoking piece on the importance of what he calls the "real estate industrial complex" to the economy. Loaded with charts and...
Introduction This week I am in New Orleans at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and quite frankly with so many good friends that I have given myself permission to not write a letter this week. But you will be getting an even better writer than me for this week's letter. I arranged for...
Introduction We have been told for months that the next interest rate move by the Federal Reserve is dependent upon what the data tells us prior to each meeting. If the data tells us that inflation is too high and/or the economy too strong, the Fed will continue in its pause mode or maybe even hike rates...
Introduction I had occasion to be in my car this morning, listening to CNBC, when the host of the show (Bob Pisani, a very nice gentleman on the few occasions I have had the opportunity to meet him) was arguing with a modestly bearish guest. Yes, there are a lot of reasons for concern noted by bears...
Introduction What is the relationship between housing prices and stock market forecasting? What will happen if the housing market begins to falter? Exactly what did Greenspan say about housing at Jackson Hole? We explore these topics and a whole lot more and hopefully we can tie them all together by...
Thoughts on the Housing Bubble Looking at a recent magazine covers one is left with the impression that the whole world is concerned about US real estate prices. This is borne out by the fact that if you go to Google and type in sex you get 78,000,000 hits. If you type in real estate you get 110,000...