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Introduction General reader, today's Outside the Box is one that you are going to want to put your thinking caps on for. My good friend Woody Brock has kindly allowed me to present you with one of the sections from his quarterly comments. In his chapter "Deconstructing Today's Ongoing Revolution...
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Introduction "Our analysis leads us to believe that recovery is only sound if it does come from itself. For any revival which is merely due to artificial stimulus leaves part of the work of depression undone and adds, to an undigested remnant of maladjustments, new maladjustments of its own."...
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Introduction Is it different this time? Can it be that trade deficits do not matter? Or is our collective debt going to end in a period of financial crisis and tears? Is Alan Greenspan right when he says periods of low risk premiums end in woe for the participants? For readers in the middle of this conversation...
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Introduction Readers know that Paul McCulley of Pimco, and his cohort Bill Gross, are two of my must read economic analysts. Pimco is in Newport Beach California and oversee more than $400 Billion in assets, predominately in fixed income. This is Paul McCulley's August 2005 Fed Focus letter. Several...
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Introduction Nearly all eyes are on the terrible devastation caused by Katrina, and rightly so. I can do little to add to the amount of news you already doubtlessly have, but in today's letter we will look at some of the economic implications from this tragedy, as well as how they fit into the larger...
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Introduction What is the relationship between housing prices and stock market forecasting? What will happen if the housing market begins to falter? Exactly what did Greenspan say about housing at Jackson Hole? We explore these topics and a whole lot more and hopefully we can tie them all together by...
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Introduction It's a race to see what will be the cause, or maybe better put, what will be blamed for the next economic slowdown. Will it be oil and rising energy prices? What about a slowdown in the housing market? You can't count out the Fed raising interest rates as source of economic slowdown...
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Introduction This week we revisit our old friend, the Yield Curve. We look at what it may or may not be telling us, how the Conference Board has changed how they look at the yield curve as part of their leading economic indicators, and muse upon what Greenspan is really doing. There's lot of very...
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Introduction "There is little doubt that, with the breakup of the Soviet Union and the integration of China and India into the global trading market, more of the world's productive capacity is being tapped to satisfy global demands for goods and services. Concurrently, greater integration of...
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Be Careful What You Ask For Be careful what you ask for, the ancient wisdom says, because you just might get it. The world markets are asking for a return to balance, where the US trade deficit shrinks, the US saves more and we balance our government budget. All laudable goals, and ones I would applaud...