THE BIG PICTURE Last Monday I presented the bull’s three pronged case , that: (1) the credit crisis is past it’s worst stages, (2) that we can skirt a recession or just experience a mild one and (3) that we have good value in stocks today. I offered the bull’s view up for balance, to...
Official Recession Or Not? And Does it Matter? Written Thursday, May 1st, 2008: Yesterday our first look at the US ’s Growth Domestic Product or GDP for short, showed a gain of +0.6%, a little above the consensus view. But the US consumer, who accounts for the bulk of economic growth with our spending...
Recessions Differ from Mid-Cycle Slowdowns in that that are Self-Reinforcing . A self-reinforcing downturn, which normally leads to a recession has begun, reports Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Basically the self-reinforcing step by step downturn process...
THE ECONOMY Monday, February 18th, 2008: Maybe I’m taking the wrong approach, updating you each Monday on the health and path of the economy. And talking about the ongoing debate about recession or not lying ahead. Maybe the best approach is to look at a couple of the classic indicators of recession...
ECONOMIC VIEW . It’s getting harder and harder to believe any data releases by the US government. We all know inflation is way up yet the government says it isn’t. For one big reason because it ignores gasoline, heating costs and food prices. That approach came a decade or so ago and has helped the US...