Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics Who Is Inflating the Numbers? Honey, I Blew up the Employment Numbers A Black Swan in Food Housing Numbers Are Better Than I Wrote South Africa, Canada, and La Jolla "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." – commonly attributed...
Housing - Finding the Elusive Bottom Where is the Value in Housing? Bottom Line? There is no Bottom in Sight The Real ARMs Race Cancun, La Jolla, London, and Switzerland Existing home sales rose by 2.9% in February, the first significant rise in home sales since the housing market started to decline...
Introduction We are in a world far different than the one I learned about in economic text books. As I have written, the shadow banking system of hedge funds and CDOs, CLOs, PIPES, etc. have created a new financing economic reality far different than the traditional banking system was just 20 years ago...
Sea Change at the Fed "Of his bones are coral made: Those are pearls that were his eyes: Nothing of him that doth fade, But doth suffer a sea change Into something rich and strange" (The Tempest - Shakespeare) The term "sea change" has come to mean a profound transformation ever since...
Market Mayhem & Credit Fears - What's Next? IN THIS ISSUE: 1. The Economy - The News Is Not All Bad 2. Consumer Spending Remains Firm For Now 3. Housing & Subprime - More Bad News 4. Should The Government Come To The Rescue? 5. The Fed Needs To Act On September 18 6. BCA's Latest Analysis...
Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? The Shocker in the Employment Numbers Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? Will A Cut Make Any Difference? How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy Home Again, Home Again The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data...
Introduction Who should we blame for the problems in the credit markets? This week in Outside the Box my good friend Barry Ritholtz takes on the task of pointing his prodigious finger at the guilty parties. As he notes, there is plenty of guilt to go around. This is a problem that is going to stay with...
Stock Prices Plunge In The Perfect Storm IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Stocks Make New Record Highs, Then Plummet 2. Forget The Cheese, Just Let Me Out Of The Trap! 3. Unwinding The "Yen Carry Trade" 4. Fed & Central Banks To The Rescue 5. So What Next? - BCA's Latest Analysis 6. Conclusions -...
The Mortgage Pig in the Python Inflation is Baked into the CPI Numbers The Mortgage Pig in the Python Housing Starts Look to Stop A Few Thoughts on the Recent Credit Crisis Half of All Hedge Funds Gone? Golf, Weddings, and Europe With the economy increasingly looking like it will slow down materially...