Introduction "I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand now, it is more likely than not that it will be a financial crisis rather than a policy foresight that will force change." - Paul Volker How long can the United States...
Introduction Last week we looked at my 2005 Forecast. This week, we ponder the far more interesting question of where I could (or will be!) be wrong and why and what would be the consequences. This week's topic came about as I was talking on Tuesday with Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management...
Introduction Once again it's time for me to demonstrate the foolhardy part of my nature by putting to electronic pen my forecast for 2005. I spend more research time on this one letter than on any four or five combined, simply reading hundreds of pages of research, looking at mountains of data all...
Introduction From ghoulies and ghosties And long-leggedy beasties And things that go bump in the night, Good Lord, deliver us! --Old Scottish Prayer Coming back from Canada this morning, where the Canadian dollar is on a breath-taking rise, and reading several lengthy (and very conflicting) reports on...
Premise #3: A Falling Dollar In March of 2002, I wrote an e-letter entitled "King Dollar and the Guillotine," which as the title suggests was a quite negative view of the future prospects for the dollar. Two weeks earlier, I had written a bullish letter on gold, having been bearish (really...