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BUY CLEAN GREEN! BEST INVESTMENT THEME FOR DECADES

RichardSchwartz — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:24:00 GMT

CLEAN, GREEN UPDATE. THE NEXT BIG THING IS HERE & WORKING WELL!

For a FREE week of PRINCIPLES OF THE STOCK MARKET, email me at RichardStk@aol.com

Starting back in December 2006, I started writing about the next BIG THING. And have updated it for you continuously ever since. Happily I started on this theme right before the 2007 boom in solar stocks. Since I eat my own cooking, so to speak, I was able to capture some doubles and more in companies like First Solar (FSLR), Suntech Power (STP) and a couple others. Hope you were too. That solar boom is over, for the moment -- a good time to nibble, with today’s oversupply of solar but other subsectors of the greater clean green energy universe are now having their day in the sun (pun intended). “Smart grid” stocks, those that help reduce, measure and regulate power usage have recently been hot and I’ve long recommended EnerNOC (ENOC) and Comverge (COMV). Disclaimer! I own small portions of both but can and do change positions without notice. And that’s even before America really starts to modernize our national power grid. Wind and natural gas stocks have been doing well now as have battery and other storage technology after General Motors threw out that figure of over 200 miles per gallon coming with their Chevy Volt. I did publish a decently all-encompassing list back on June 6th, 2008, right in the midst of the 17-month downtrend and asked you to “print, keep handy and archive” it for future use. Last Wednesday, I listed a few additional technology companies which have one foot in clean green and before that, on September 18^th, I posted a winnowed down list of my December 2006 list of about 80 clean green companies outperforming for possible near term trades. And of course a couple times recently I’ve again recommended that new clean green global mutual fund that Steve Leuthold and crew are now offering, which I recommended to you just back in July, that’s Leuthold Clean Green Tech (symbol LGCTX).

I CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THIS IS SHOULD BE #1 THEME FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS and thus let me pound the table again today (even though it’s not Friday when I’ve gotten in the habit of giving you YOUR CLEAN GREEN WEEKEND UPDATE; I’m a man of routine my friends say.). Just want to point out that holding a bunch of clean green stocks is still working well. What I’m finding is that some good news item seems to pop every few days about one of the stocks in my own IRA portfolio, almost totally composed of small lots of lots of clean green companies, and/or also for many of those stocks on my larger shopping list of clean green. My IRA is up over +30% this year and I’m only 50% invested! (Note! I’d be much less invested if this was my fund management money. Like monies that are designated to only go into sector funds or that only can be moved around minimally or that has no clean green choices, again like the money management I do for others.) Anyway, whether it be wind, geothermal, energy storage, battery technology, fuel cells, etc. etc, whatever, there are lots of clean green niches, I’d buy ‘em all and cover all bases. Yesterday one US wind company got a big contract from a Chinese firm and popped +10% (in a ragged stock market), that’s happened numerous times as China pushes clean green too. Back a week ago a reader sent me an email that three of his very low priced clean greens were all up nicely that day when he checked. I hold one of them so I won’t mention that name but two others I used to hold, not right now but maybe I’ll buy them back on weakness down the road, were Medis Tech (symbol MDTL) up +24% and Hydrogenics (HYGS) up +13%. Schwartz View: Bottom line, pull out my original shopping list of clean green, which I’ve run in various and updated forms numerous times over the last couple of years, review it and then buy small amounts of lots of clean green stocks. That way when a breakthrough occurs, wherever you’ll benefit while the rising tide carries all ships (almost all) over time. That was my original game plan for all of us and remains so and continues working nicely. By the way I’d buy BEFORE the scheduled December Copenhagen global conference. The rationale again is the world is going clean green because it has to. We all know that. Going clean green creates new jobs which we desperately need, cuts down on oil money somehow finding its way into terrorists hands and respects and protects Mother Earth. And when we forget we have to go green for a brief moment, some report about global warming comes out and reminds us.. China knows it, Europe knows it and America, our scientists, our government, our businesses (who wants rules in place so they can move forward with capital spending plans), our venture capitalists know it and our everyday Americans know it. All except for the pure unadulterated capitalists holdout contingent who won’t admit such because in their blindered view “it hurts business.” Let me say again: There is a critical mass for going Code Green and a critical mass means there’s no stopping it, maybe something, some event, can hold it back for a time, but there’s no stopping it.

THIS IS THE #1 BEST INVESTMENT THEME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DECADES!

Come on, get on board!

We Need To Move Past Oil!

RichardSchwartz — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 13:49:00 GMT

YOUR ALTERNATE CLEAN, GREEN ENERGY WEEKEND UPDATE

With not much stock market stuff to write about since I don’t want to recommend buying or selling this morning as we all should have our portfolios hunkered down and pretty much in place for a rocky and rough summer by now. Sure, stock market aficionados can always fine tune their portfolios and do some long and short trading, trying to scalp some profits here and there while long term investors stand pat, but with not that much going on, please let me rant and rave a little about those people out there who are slow in moving forward on American’s vital energy issue. And, don’t get me wrong, we all have to change our mindsets about energy and life in America and it will take everyone their own period of time since we’re all coming from different lifestyles, histories, jobs and places. Still, change is a coming now – I agree with George Soros who writes he sees America and the world moving from an established order and certainty to great change and thus greater uncertainty -- and we’ll all have to adapt. No problem for us Americans as that’s what we’ve always done; we’ve always adapted to change well.

“Drill, drill, drill!” I almost can’t believe Larry Kudlow on CNBC this morning. That’s his mantra: Drill, drill, drill. OMG (Oh my gosh!) I have to believe Larry, “a great American” no doubt and always bullish, is living on another planet or is somewhere back decades in time. He just doesn’t get it! But then I shouldn’t be so harsh on Larry. Millions of American’s still don’t get it as well. Though I’m delighted to see T. Boone Pickens gets it as he is now paying millions for TV ads publicizing The Pickens Plan, his idea to harness America’s wind corridor running north to south from Canada to West Texas, replacing natural gas as an energy source for cities and use that natural gas to power America’s vehicles.

Anyway, Larry just will have to realize that economic growth isn’t the be all and end all. Near term growth is just near term growth. We really need long term, sustainable economic progress to make the US and world a more prosperous place. And that switching from oil today, while a big burden now, is the best thing for us and for future generations to come. Thus we shouldn’t be doing anything to drive down oil and thus gas prices today. We need to leave them be because high and higher gas prices now will help drive America in getting off oil by creating profit in developing alternative power sources. That more and more Americans see this already and those that don’t will soon wake up to this fact going forward, and are or will be willing to sacrifice for the good of the country. And that this major change over – like moving to indoor plumbing, to railroads, to cars, to electricity in generations past – can be and should be done.

So my major #1 point is that we don’t want to drill for oil any more! Certainly not lift the moratorium on offshore drilling like President Bush has just proposed and Larry got all excited about. Or go up to Alaska and ruin one of the last remaining unspoiled parts of our planet and home. For what? Temporary relief and to lower by a dollar or so gas prices now? And then a few decades from now, when we use up that offshore and Alaskan oil, we’ll just have to address the same issue once again?

You’re not convinced? You still want to know more reasoning why we shouldn’t drill for oil any longer? Well, because we have to move beyond using oil as a power source. That’s the bottom line. We immediately have to start putting any and all plans in place now, today, to stop using oil and dirty coal as well. Now, I know what some of you are thinking: “Richard, get realistic! That’s impossible.” Maybe Larry Kudlow and George Bush 2 are thinking that too, that there’s no way to get off oil and coal. But someone has to give them a (loving) slap across their cheeks and wake them up to coming change. It is a total change of mindset but it’s happening here and all over the world. It’s happening here with movies such as Wall E. Lucy saw that movie with her granddaughter Elizabeth and says it make her more into a green believer. And the influence that movies have is great, thus every kid who sees the movie will be left with the unconscious thought that they’d better live a green, clean, low carbon footprint life.

And, as I’ve consistently written since December 2006, I’ve noted a critical mass already built up supporting a change in how we live on this planet. From scientists, to governments to large and small business alike, to venture capitalists, to individuals. Supported by logic, the reasoning that using a cleaner energy source will: (1) be a major, maybe knock out blow to global terrorism, (2) create millions of new jobs in the US and globally and thus spur the whole world into a new more prosperous phase and of course, be a big step forward in leaving Mother Earth at least as clean and healthy as we found it, just the right way to live. Back in December 2006 as a result, I took my own advice to you all and started using 95% of my IRA account to just buy small allotments of any and all companies involved in inventing, using, working on alternative, clean renewable energy sources. I’ve posited here time after time that fortunes will be made by those companies and individuals pursuing this same course. Thus I’ve listed many times in this space as many companies involved in alternative power as I could find. Solar companies, wind companies, battery technology, hydrogen tech, geothermal, thin film solar technology, energy savers, and on and on and on. And I must say this strategy has worked. My Ira has risen while the stock market has been on a slide for the last year now.

SCHWARTZ SUMMING UP. Sure we still need oil and coal today and let’s find more where we can, where we’re already drilling. But we need a new mindset in America and I see it as already occurring, already in place and inevitable that it’s going to change America and the world as we know now it. Better to ride this incoming tide, open up our minds to new thinking by ourselves rather than have it forced down our throats. Some will not see this major change coming or resist it, not being able to adapt to a new world ahead, but not so my readers, I hope. There’s so much support already that there’s no going back so the sooner we all cross over to the other side of this vital energy issue the better.

Is This Your Portfolio?

RichardSchwartz — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 15:14:00 GMT

WHERE YOU SHOULD STAND TODAY. The Ideal Portfolio (another Schwartz View).

Yep, let me offer up one man’s view of what the ideal portfolio should be today and why:

· Very minimal exposure to the stock market! This major, modern day margin call on institutional investors is causing havoc. I’ve likened this margin call to the one which wiped out many individual investors quickly back after the 1929 stock market crash, only this time around its institutional investors getting slaughtered and thus the process of meeting their margin calls is being stretched out. All are deleveraging their portfolios big time and since the securitized investments killing them are so opaque and illiquid, it’s a terrible, long, drawn out process.

· Where you do have exposure, have some in the Energy Service sector. Business is going to remain strong and money is going to funnel into this sector as long as oil stays up there, even if oil tanks 50%. The world is in now in a new competitive battle to secure our energy futures. Thus companies which help countries like Brazil find and produce oil should do well.

· Where you can, hedge your long stock exposure. One does this by having some inverse mutual funds and/or ETFs (exchange traded funds). Happily today, investors have access to this modern day invention of being able to go short (bet on declines) with inverse investments. You just buy a fund or ETF which goes up as the market goes down. I would recommend having small inverse positions, especially in financials. This allows you to ride through a day like yesterday knowing that a part of your portfolio is rising while your long positions are falling. The next day you check your portfolio’s value and see how you did. That’s what I do each morning. Say the stock market fell -3.00%, like yesterday, & your account lost just -0.20% like my ProFunds managed account did you might figure your hedge is just right. Just tinker with the hedge until you get it right.

· Hold NO BONDS. I’ve been recommending this for some time now. Yes, we may get a deflationary collapse at the end of this 25 year “too much of everything” Kondratieff disinflationary economic backdrop we’ve been in since former Fed chairman Paul Volker broke the back of runaway inflation in the early 1980s. But the world is now experiencing our first return to higher inflation jolt. Thus we’ve started a new bear market in bonds. I can’t help but remember when I first became a stockbroker with Merrill Lynch back in the late 1970s, the client who say she would never, ever buy a bond again, after losing money on bonds going back two or three decades. Well, we’ve had a 25 year bull market in bonds and its over or close. Thus, my recommendation is no bonds. (Except some very short term laddered US Treasuries for income.)

· Hold a little Gold. Yes, some will keep warning of a deflationary collapse ahead, when the economy really tanks and thus say gold will collapse as well. But gold is in a long term uptrend, a bull market, and no one knows quite how it will react in various market and economic scenarios. Buy SPDR Gold Trust (symbol GLD) as opposed to the miners themselves, thus eliminating one unneeded uncertainty. FYI, I’ve seen gold rise and gold sector funds fall, so watch yourselves.

· Hold a little foreign currencies. Again, in today’s modern day investment world, the individual investor can easily bet on foreign currencies … by buying their ETFs or tracking stocks. I’ve been recommending & still am, buying Swiss francs & Japanese yen, symbols FXF and FXY. Both are Big Picture superstar guru Jim Rogers’ picks and are in long term bull markets and dipping now so it’s a good spot to buy in on weakness. Today let me add the Chinese renminbi, symbol CNY, to the buy list since there is a exchange-traded note in existence. Not a fast mover but it’s also in a long term bull market and probably is now one of the most reliable bull markets going.

· Hold a little agricultural commodity position. The middle class global world has grown tremendously, yay!, and thus the general commodity bull market has now spread out to foodstuffs. A larger global middle class, means more and better food is needed, especially increased protein. Food commodities are up so only buy on pullbacks here if you don’t own any now. My picks have been and remain symbols RJA and DBA. Again buy the commodities themselves as much as possible and not the companies which produce such although ETFs like MOO have been doing well to this point. Today, let me add iPath Livestock ETN (symbol COW) to the buy list if I haven’t already, a livestock play. Looks like with corn prices so high, cattle is being killed off (thus one can still get steak and hamburger at $1.99 a pound) because it costs too much to feed ‘em. But that will change too and red meat prices will skyrocket.

· Finally, hold small positions in lots of alternative, clean green energy stocks. I see new fortunes being made by those riding the wave of the US and globe getting off oil. The best way I’ve found to buy these is to keep the shopping list of alternate, clean green stocks I’ve compiled and posted for you back on June 6^th in this space handy. (If you don’t have it email me and I’ll send you a copy.) Buy a bunch of these stocks on weakness. I bought one for myself yesterday.

Disclaimer! I hold or plan on holding many of the ideas recommended above.

Don't Let Hot Solar Stocks Distract You!

RichardSchwartz — Fri, 23 May 2008 14:29:00 GMT

YOUR WEEKEND ALTERNATIVE, GREEN CLEAN ENERGY UPDATE

I haven’t issued a clean, green update in quite a while. Distracted by other areas. But watching my IRA consistently grow – holding almost only alternative, clean, green stocks -- in spite of today’s iffy stock market makes me desire to get back to this bullish trend. To refresh regular readers and/or to prep new readers, let me reiterate I’ve detected a critical mass now built worldwide to back any/all alternatives to using oil and coal; dirty fuels in general. Obviously one goal is to get energy prices down for the long run, a critical need to boost, not drag on, future global economic growth. But secondly, to change the awful, long established pattern of funding many of our stated enemies, rogue governments and terrorism in general by buying what they have; OIL! And thirdly, of course, to change another long-entrenched, bad habit trend of polluting and killing off planet Earth. I mean Earth is our home after all and we’re ruining it at an accelerating pace. So today we have at least three solid reasons to get rid of using oil as our power source; (1) price, (2) to win a war and (3) to live up to the responsibility of the custodianship of the planet, to leave our kids something livable. Any one of these reasons alone should be reason enough to change.

Moving on, my constant reading of investment information shows most everyone is lined up behind this goal of powering the world going forward by using clean energy sources. Businesses, governments, scientists, venture capitalists, individuals, governments, just about everyone except for President Bush and a few blinkered, therefore almost blind, “business first at all costs” advocates like the publishers of The New York Post and Investor’s Business Daily (the two primary papers I read daily; it’s awful their nearsightedness!). But “the trend is our friend” in this vital, critical global challenge, finally! As opposed to back in the 1970s when the world wasn’t worried about, there was no issue with, global warming. And we can certainly make this massive changeover! We switched from wood to oil. We build railroads from coast to coast. We invented and implemented electricity and telephones and the Internet. We now have indoor plumbing. We moved from horse and buggy to cars. And on and on. So there’s no doubt we can stop using oil and coal to power ourselves. We just need some real leadership to do so. Even without that leadership almost every day I see step by step progress being made. This morning, it’s a story about how big companies like Google, Chevron and Goldman Sachs are betting big and building solar power mirrors in the Mojave Desert to power Southern California.

What brings me to today’s investment tie in and idea. That is for investors to follow my tack since it’s proving so successful. That is to buy a little of each alternative, clean green energy company one can. And I don’t mean just the solar companies. Sure they’ve had a big boom and are therefore now on everyone’s radar screens. First Solar (FSLR) is up 885% since I first began this alternative energy theme back in December 2006. SunPower (SPWR) is still up 125% over the same time frame, after being up 287% at its peak. Most other solar stocks have soared as well and stolen all the attention. And I would still own these stocks, buying them on weakness anytime. The news almost consistently is great and when some glitch does comes along, like the last couple days in Solarfun (SOLF), it goes back on the shopping list to buy.

But this morning I want to raise a clarion call for investors to not forget or overlook the rest of the alternative, clean green energy stock complex. While solar and wind get all the attention there are plenty of other technologies and ideas out there and likely the real long term solution to our three –pronged, and now critical, problem with (1) the high price of energy, (2) paying our enemies for their oil and (3) to cleaning up the planet before it’s too late, will come out of somebody’s garage like Microsoft, Google and others did. Thus I would buy little pieces – no one can predict which individual company – of battery technology, natural gas for cars, electric motors, power electronics, fuel cell tech, meter reading, distributed generation, etc., etc., etc. I don’t mean to profess I deeply understand these technologies but I do know there’s lots and lots of companies in this space.

I won’t give you a list of the exact 15 or so companies I own in my IRA today. For fear of conflict of interest. But I plan to rerun the full list of alternative energy companies I used to run when I first started writing about this theme back in December 2006. And update it to include many more companies I’ve found since. For today, suffice it to say, almost daily, the news from these companies is bullish. One day it’s a signed contract to provide services or products. Another day it’s a report about how strongly revenue growth is occurring. Another day it’s about how much money venture capitalists are pouring into discovering some new energy source. Another day it’s Governor Schwarzenegger saying the changeover to clean energy will provide much needed job growth. And on & on. Stay tuned next week for more on this.

Clean & Green

RichardSchwartz — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 14:54:00 GMT

FINALLY, YOUR CLEAN GREEN WEEKEND UPDATE Don’t forget about me, says the green clean business sector. Good point. Since the blow off top in the solar stocks and my resulting recommendation to take some profits in solar and clean green alternative energy stocks in general, I’ve stopped writing about this sector as much as I was. It’s not that I don’t like the group longer term – in fact I just read where solar installation base in the US is up 70% over last year! It’s just that when the general stock market goes down, most everything will follow it down at one point or another and its recently been alternative energy’s time to slump along with oil peaking starting off 2008. I ate my own cooking and from November through early January I sold First Solar (FSLR), SunPower (SPWR), Hoku Scientific (HOKU), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Comverge (COMV), Ormat (ORA), Quantum Fuels and a number of others. But just to avoid a big decline. Hey, I’m a trader at heart and thus I hate to give any money back. I don’t want to see any large drawdowns as again the first rule in investing, drummed into my head by reading lots of stock market books over the years is: “Don’t Lose Money!” Schwartz View: On the other hand I want to get back into all the above stocks again, and more, asap. I just don’t know quite when. I’m still figuring that this first year of a bear market may show more commodity strength and thus strength in related areas like oil, coal and clean alternative plays than the bears expect so the clean green sector may hold up for awhile longer this year. But if Papa Bear really does arrive on Wall Street with ferocity, then that will be the time to buy. No matter what happens going forward, and whomever becomes the next US president, there is now a global critical mass surrounding the alternative, clean energy sector. So I want to be heavily overweight this sector for the future. Why not make a bundle on something positive, the switch away from dirty power and to clean power? A 2-fer!

Green Energy Update 12/05/2008

RichardSchwartz — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 14:35:00 GMT

YOUR ALTERNATE (CLEAN) GREEN ENERGY UPDATE Boy, I’m riding a very hot sector! And I hope you are as well. I have been pounding the table as hard as I know how about this sector, the clean, green-tech sector, ever since last December! To reiterate, my big picture theme is that a critical mass has built up behind and is now supporting a long term, global trend. A bull market has begun geared towards replacing oil & coal with solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, hydrogen technologies, batteries, hybrid cars, etc. And that just about everyone, every person, every country, most scientists, all venture capitalists and every business large and small on the planet is now behind this effort. So, please, get on board! It’s still early in the game.Every investor should have a core position in clean, green-tech! Anyway, even though the long running, bull market in stocks seems over the top to me, every day it seems like some of these solar and other clean, greentech stocks pop. This week it’s been Solarfun Power (SOLF), a Chinese solar company, Hoku Scientific (HOKU), a Hawaii based fuel-cell component company and Climate Exchange PLC, (symbol CXCHF trading in the US), a London based carbon trading exchange. A couple weeks back it was Plug Power (PLUG), an Albany, NY based maker of batteries or fuel cells. Schwartz View: Every Monday I run a list of clean, green mutual funds and ETFs and individual stocks and when I recommended them. This coming Monday I’ll run an even more inclusive list. Stay tuned and go green as soon as possible. But please remember, start small because the sector’s been so darn hot. Once you get started, keep scaling in on weakness and plan to do so for years to come. Disclaimer! I own small amounts of the above stocks and numerous other clean, green energy stocks as I’ve been following my own advice since I started recommending this sector one year ago.