• World War D—Deflation

    Secular Bear Markets World War D A Little Less Deflation, A Little More Reflation, Please It’s All About That Debt, ’Bout that Debt, ’Bout that Debt Here and There, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, and NYC Everywhere I go I’m asked, “Will there be inflation or deflation? Are we in a bull or bear market? Is the bond bull
  • The Third and Final Transformation of Monetary Policy

    The Fed Funds Rate: R.I.P. San Diego, Raleigh, Atlanta, New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont The law of unintended consequences is becoming ever more prominent in the economic sphere, as the world becomes exponentially more complex with every passing year. Just as a network grows in complexity and value as the number of connections in that network grows
  • Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook: First Quarter 2015

    I think it was almost two years ago that I was in Cyprus. Cyprus had just come through its crisis and was still in shell shock. I was there to get a feel for what it was like, and a number of my readers had courteously arranged for me to meet with all sorts of people and do a few presentations. A local group arranged for me to speak at the lecture hall
  • Living in a Free-Lunch World

    Nobody Understands Debt Foundational Presuppositions Debt Is Money We Owe to Ourselves – Sort of There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch Mrs. Watanabe’s Bonds Home Gearing Up for SIC “Everyone is a prisoner of his own experiences. No one can eliminate prejudices – just recognize them.” – Edward R. Murrow
  • US Dollar: American Phoenix

    “Just a little patience, yeah…” – Guns N’ Roses Lastweek the FOMC essentially removed forward guidance and placed all options back on the table, and at the end of the day they’ve opened the door for further tightening. As Yellen recently explained in advance, the removal of the word patience from the Fed’s
  • Never Smile at a Crocodile

    Never Smile at a Crocodile Strategic Investment Conference 2015 Mildred Duke Mauldin, RIP “High debt levels, whether in the public or private sector, have historically placed a drag on growth and raised the risk of financial crises that spark deep economic recessions.” – The McKinsey Institute, “ Debt and (not much) deleveraging
  • The Kingdom of Denmark

    In Thoughts from the Frontline , I am in the middle of writing a series on debt. I realized on Sunday that the second installment wasn’t ready for prime time, so I will work on it some more and send it out (hopefully) this coming weekend. In the meantime, in keeping with the theme of debt, for today’s Outside the Box we have the following
  • Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide

    There is an obsession in the marketplace over the date when the Fed will once again begin to raise rates. As if another 25 basis points is going to change the economics on tens of trillions of dollars of investments. But as we reflect on the issue more deeply, it becomes obvious that a minor bump in the fed funds rate will indeed change a great deal
  • Debt Be Not Proud

    Debt Be Not Proud Oh Debt, Where Is Thy Sting? Debt Is Future Consumption Denied Deflation Is the Enemy of Debt The Black Hole of Debt The 2015 Strategic Investment Conference Orlando, Geneva, Zürich, Dallas, and San Diego Some things never change. Here is Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founding intellectuals of the Austrian school of economics
  • What Uber Could Teach the American Economy

    When I travel around the country, one of the questions that comes up often in conversation is, where will the jobs of the future come from? I have a stock answer that I glibly offer: In 1980, the Japanese were beating our brains out. Inflation was well into the double digits, as was unemployment. Finding a job was hard (I know), as one industry after
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