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  • Bill Gross at His Best

    I normally read Bill Gross’s monthly letter the day of or shortly after when it comes out. For whatever reason, I didn’t get around to his early June letter until a few days ago. It has been a few years since I have sent his letter out as your Outside the Box for the week, but I thought this one was so good that I needed to send it on. As
  • Generational Chaos Ahead

    The Fourth Turning Attitudes Are Generational Heroes, Artists, Prophets, & Nomads A Turning Roughly Every 20 Years Guide to the Fourth Turning The Worst Yet to Come Some Final Thoughts on Brexit Before the Vote Las Vegas, Maine, and Writing Time “This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt “Each generation
  • Hot Summer Economic Weirdness

    ECB Spreads the Cash German Banks Hoarding Cash UK Eyes the Brexit Recession Warnings Galore Home for the Summer and Hopefully Cleveland? “A lost election can have the jolt of a drop through the gallows door, leading to a dark night of the soul in which the future presses down like a cloud that will never lift.” – James Wolcott “Recession
  • Life on the Edge, Continued

    Life on the Edge, Continued Final Thoughts from John First Impressions from the Strategic Investment Conference At the conclusion of my conference yesterday, I did a number of interviews and then made my way a few miles home, collapsed into my favorite chair, and thought back over the myriad of ideas, the whirlwind of friends, and the just general all
  • Welcome to the Pale Gray Dot

    The Gray Wave On Your Own The Coming Retirement Crisis Lifespan Inequality? Deflationary Future Dallas, Houston, Abu Dhabi, Raleigh, and SIC “The afternoon knows what the morning never suspected.” – Robert Frost “It's paradoxical that the idea of living a long life appeals to everyone, but the idea of getting old doesn't
  • 70 Is the New 65

    As some of us know far too well, forecasting the future with any precision is extremely difficult. There’s at least one exception to the rule, though. Population trends show themselves decades and even centuries in advance. If we know how many people were born in a given year, we can extrapolate what the population will look like far in the future
  • The Fed Prepares to Dive

    Be Careful What You Wish For If Crazy Doesn’t Work, Try Crazier Yellen & the Spirit of Prudent Planning Y2K All Over Again? Go Thou and Do Likewise The Religion of Economics “No one will lend at a negative interest rate; potential creditors will simply choose to hold cash, which pays zero nominal interest.” – Ben Bernanke
  • The Debate Over Renminbi Policy

    Longtime readers know how much I respect and rely on the Gavekal group for thought-provoking research. They have a truly unique organization, one in which even junior analysts can question conventional wisdom and ask uncomfortable questions. Moreover, they aren’t afraid to let the world (or at least their clients) see their disagreements. Today
  • $100 Trillion Up in Smoke

    Simple Math, Hard Answers Drowning in Oil Third-Order Effects Coup de Grâce? Cayman Islands and Home “We aren’t addicted to oil, but our cars are.” – James Woolsey “The greatest asset, even in this country, is not oil and gas. It’s integrity.” – George Foreman If energy powers the world, then whoever
  • Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

    I’m going to offer something a little different in this week’s Outside the Box. Nate Silver has consistently been one of the best political analysts of the past 12 years. I wasn’t terribly enamored of his move from the New York Times to ESPN – to go back to covering sports rather than politics – but he still covers politics
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