hi Ian I'm new to this
current market views -- as noted above unemployment is the biggest catalyst right now. Other data has been pretty good. the OECD gave the US a growth upgrade to 1.8%, productivity imporved, indicating there's little wage inflation, even inflation seems to be moderating a bit. BUt if you remember back in 2002 adn 2003, it was unemployment driving stocks down.
With that said, there are always stocks that can be bought. Though a little shorter holding period is probably a good idea
Like how short?
Traderdad, I almost missed your question. As I said, I think rising unemployment is a bigger factor than housing/financial crises right now. Once people start losing jobs, well, spending will get cut. One item that people often miss is the effect that all of the cash-out refis had on GDP back on 04 and 05. Some economists estimate it was 1 or even 2 points of GDP. So from that perspective, the economy wasn't as good as it looked. And now that the refi gravy train has ended, we're getting a much more realistic look
So just where should we be looking to buy into?
What affect do you think the election will have over-all on the economy - no matter who wins.
shorter holding periods -- ultimately it depends on the stock. You always want to watch your stocks for trading patterns that may point to problems. And when we're trading a stock like Canadian Solar which is very volatile, we keep a tight leash on it.
So there's less easy cash to go around. Okay, then what sectors are you seeing as potentials for investors these days? Commodities seem to have petered out and China's not looking as good as it did a year ago.
my stock screener TRIGR has been pulling up biotech and healthcare stocks lately. We've done great with an in-home care stock called Almost Family and I just recommended a new health care stock in my Growth Report newlstter called Sun Healthcare group
What sectors would you advise checking out for buying opportunities?
Well, the next four years are liekly to be pretty tough. the budget is 500 billion in the hole, we're losing jobs, which could take another year or more to play out. Oil's not going back to 40 a barrel and I could go on and on.
I think a key issue is going to be which candidate offers up some government backed projects. This idea was put forth by a man I respect greatly Bill Gross at PIMCO. he thinks the next candidate will need to initiate some big programs to help put people back to work. I can imagine infrastructure spending and alternative energy spending as two important ones.
Do these stocks have listings on the nyseor nasdaq?
China's market is down 60% or so. definitely not pretty. But I'm actuall starting to see Chinese stocks show up on TRIGR. We recently put china fire and security in the Growth Report portfolio. it's up around 15%.
Commodities are worrisome now that the US dollar has started to improve and the world is showing signs of slowing
As for the alt energy, Obama's been talking wind and solar, McCain's talking nuclear, and then you've got this Pickens plan out there to fill Texas with windmills. Everything I've read says that wind and solar still aren't competitive with coal on a per kW basis. What's your take on that? Any good plays here?
Sure. China Fire & Security is CFSG, Emergent Biosolutions is EBS, Canadian SOlar is CSIQ. I love that ticker because after a great run following a recent blog post here, it's been acting a little C SIQ