These days, be it in politics or science, things seem to
accelerate at a speed that occasionally makes us wonder what we really know. Or
if we know anything, for that matter... a humbling thought.
Take the dinosaurs, for example. We all know from biology
class that they got wiped out due to an asteroid impact and the subsequent
ecosystem disaster that spanned the globe. Right?
Maybe not. Recent scientific findings suggest the cause of
the demise of the giants that roamed the Earth 65 million years ago might be a
different one than previously thought.
Even though the asteroid-collision, swift-death theory is
still popular among scientists, in the last few years researchers found that
some of the data didn't add up.
New fossil analyses indicated that at least two of the
"Big Five" extinction periods were drawn-out processes extending over hundreds
of thousands of years, rather than a single, catastrophic strike from outer
space.
In a September 2006 article, Scientific American
stated that "A new type of evidence reveals that the earth itself can, and
probably did, exterminate its own inhabitants."
And it might have done that via the world's oceans, or
rather, sulfurous gases rising from the ocean floors.
Scientists have known for a long time that the oxygen
level in the air around the time of the mass extinctions was much lower than it
is today, but the reason was - until recently - undetermined. Some assumed it
might have been due to large-scale volcanic activity, which could have raised
CO2 levels in the atmosphere, reducing oxygen and leading to extreme global
warming.
But volcano eruptions never sufficiently explained the
large die-off of marine life or, for that matter, plant death on land, because
plants should theoretically thrive on increased CO2 levels.
Reanalyzed data from the mass extinctions has now revealed
the presence of tiny photosynthetic green sulfur bacteria - microbes that live
in anoxic, i.e., low-oxygen, conditions such as the depths of stagnant
lakes and the Black Sea.
"Those deep-dwelling anaerobic microbes," explains Scientific
American, "churn out copious amounts of hydrogen sulfide [H2S], which also
dissolves into the seawater. As its concentration builds, the H2S diffuses
upward, where it encounters oxygen diffusing downward."
For a while, the oxygenated and hydrogen sulfide-saturated
waters stay separated and their interface, called the chemocline, is
stable. But if that fragile balance is disturbed, things can get bad fast.
Calculations by geoscientists Lee Kump and Michael Arthur of Pennsylvania
State University have shown that "if oxygen levels drop in the oceans,
conditions begin to favor the deep-sea anaerobic bacteria, which proliferate and
produce greater amounts of hydrogen sulfide."
If the level of H2S were to increase beyond a critical
threshold, "the chemocline separating the H2S-rich deepwater from oxygenated
surface water could have floated up to the top abruptly. The horrific result
would be great bubbles of toxic H2S gas erupting into the atmosphere."
And if enough of this poison had been produced - which the
studies indicate it had - it might well have led to extinctions both on land
and in the sea.
According to Kump and Arthur's estimates, "the amount of
H2S gas entering the late Permian atmosphere from the oceans was more than
2,000 times the small amount given off by volcanoes today. Enough of the toxic
gas would have permeated the atmosphere to have killed both plants and animals
- particularly because the lethality of H2S increases with temperature."
The authors say that volcanic eruptions would have played
a role as well, blowing vast amounts of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere and
causing rapid global warming that encouraged further growth of the deadly
bacteria.
"But the most critical factor seems to have been the oceans.
[...] Oxygen-breathing ocean life would have been hit first and hardest, whereas
the photosynthetic green and purple H2S-consuming bacteria would have been able
to thrive at the surface of the anoxic ocean. As the H2S gas choked creatures
on land and eroded the planet's protective shield, virtually no form of life on
the earth was safe."
Could something like this happen again, wiping out most of
the world's species including humans?
Some scientists think we could again see conditions
favoring the build-up of hydrogen sulfide gas in just 200 years.
"The so-called thermal extinction at the end of the
Paleocene began when atmospheric CO2 was just under 1,000 parts per million
(ppm). At the end of the Triassic, CO2 was just above 1,000 ppm. Today with CO2
around 385 ppm, it seems we are still safe. But with atmospheric carbon
climbing at an annual rate of 2 ppm and expected to accelerate to 3 ppm, levels
could approach 900 ppm by the end of the next century, and conditions that
bring about the beginnings of ocean anoxia may be in place."
Does that mean mankind will go extinct around the year
2300 - and doesn't it mean the Global Warming doomsayers have been right all
along?
Even though we're far from having all the answers, we
recommend taking this information with a grain of salt. First of all, Kump and
Arthur's findings are still a hypothesis, not a fact. Second, even though the
existence of global warming is now accepted by many in the scientific
community, there are serious and credible countervailing views and it is far from
proven that man-made emissions, rather than natural causes, are the likely
culprits. And third, we would think that in two hundred years, humans may have
found technologies to deal with the looming threat, if there actually is one.
But we found the theory interesting, which is why we
brought it to your attention here.
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