Thoughts From The Frontline

This highly acclaimed blog is primarily focused on private money management, financial services, and investments. John demonstrates an unusual breadth of expertise, as illustrated by the wide variety of issues addressed in-depth in his writings.

Thoughts From The Frontline

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Why Investors Fail

This week I am in South Africa and am not as connected as I would like to be due to meetings and slow Internet, so we are going to look at some material from my book, Bull's Eye Investing, which I think is more pertinent than ever. And since lately there has been rather large growth in the readership, there are a significant number of new readers for whom this material will be fresh....

Published Fri, May 05 2008 1:48 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Absolute Returns, Investing, Economic Theory, Bullseye Investing
Lies and Other Statistics

If we are to believe the government statistics, the GDP of the US grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year. And unemployment actually fell. And there were only 20,000 job losses. This week we do a quick review of why the statistics can be so misleading. We also look at why I was wrong about the housing number last week, and I highlight what could be a very serious Black Swan lurking in the agricultural bushes....

Published Fri, May 05 2008 10:21 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Inflation, Housing, Unemployment, Food Prices, International Living
The Velocity Of Money

The late and great Milton Friedman told us that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. But there is an asterisk to his equation that we need to examine, namely, the velocity of money. Sometimes a fast-growing money supply is not as inflationary as you might think. Then we will take quick looks at why the banking sector is in for more and larger rounds of write-offs, as well as note that the housing industry is in a hole but is gamely digging itself deeper....

Published Fri, Apr 04 2008 10:23 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: GDP, Money Supply, South Africa, Housing Crisis, Velocity of Money, Write-Offs
The Muddle Through Question

A few weeks ago I asked for readers to send me questions and said I would try and answer them while I was in Switzerland. Some of them were quite good and have given me ideas for whole newsletters but will require a lot of research. But a lot of them fell into two basic camps. This week we look at a number of questions from readers about my thoughts on the Muddle Through Economy....

Published Fri, Apr 04 2008 11:01 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Recession, GDP, Muddle Through, Housing Crisis, Economic Outlook, Soft Depression
Is it a Bull, Bear or Cowardly Lion Market?

Bull, Bear, and Cowardly Lion Markets Market Cycle Math Where Are We Today? Analyze and Strategize Switzerland and American Airlines Are we in a bull, a bear, or a cowardly lion market? As we will see, the answer can make a huge difference in your investment...

Published Fri, Apr 04 2008 4:09 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Recession, Interest Rate, Stock Market, Economic Forecast, Economic Theory
More Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis

There is so much that is happening each and every day as the Continuing Crisis moves slowly into month 8, so much news to follow, so many details that need to be followed up that it can get a little overwhelming. Where to begin? Maybe with a "minor" change of the rules on how we value assets, then a look at the proposed changes in regulations...

Published Sat, Apr 04 2008 12:14 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Recession, Inflation, Credit Crisis, Economic Forecast, Muddle Through, Consumer Debt, Housing Crisis, Regulation, Hank Paulson
Where is the Bottom in Housing?

Housing - Finding the Elusive Bottom Where is the Value in Housing? Bottom Line? There is no Bottom in Sight The Real ARMs Race Cancun, La Jolla, London, and Switzerland Existing home sales rose by 2.9% in February, the first significant rise in home...

Published Fri, Mar 03 2008 10:10 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Interest Rate, Housing, Foreclosures, Mortgage, Economic Forecast, Housing Crisis
Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis

Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis Margin Clerks of the World, Unite! Where Do We Find New Sources of Credit? In Defense of Alan Greenspan What Now for Gold, Oil, Etc? Baseball, Mexico, and Travel Costs My essay in Outside the Box last Monday seemed to...

Published Sat, Mar 03 2008 12:51 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: The Fed, Alan Greenspan, Gold, Oil, Interest Rate, Subprime, Credit Crisis
Muddle Through and Your Long Term Returns

Muddle Through Gets A Boost Honey, I Vaporized My Customers Consumer Spending is Going, Going...South The Boomers Break the Deal Today we drop back to take a look at the economy and its long term effect on our portfolio returns. I am in Orlando this week...

Published Fri, Mar 03 2008 2:28 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: The Fed, Baby Boomers, Consumer Spending, Subprime, Housing Bubble, Muddle Through, Consumer Debt
What's That Hissing Sound?

The BS from the BLS Help Me, Obi-John A New Program for All Investors 2,500,000 "Lost Jobs" and Counting Taking a Long-Term Perspective Leverage in Reverse Gear What's That Hissing Sound? A Response from Tiffani The official number for employment...

Published Sat, Mar 03 2008 12:02 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: The Fed, Employment, Inflation, Muddle Through, Accredited Investor, BLS
Stagflation and the Fed

How Do You Spell Stagflation? Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation? The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side This week's topic was inspired by a discussion...

Published Fri, Feb 02 2008 10:47 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: The Dollar, The Fed, Ben Bernanke, Inflation, Stagflation, Euro, Credit Crisis
The Muddle Through Fed

The Muddle Through Fed Risks to the Downside Consumers Gone Wild Leaving the Ballpark After All these Years This week the Fed offered us their forecasts for 2008-10 for the economy, inflation and employment. We will look at some of the details which I...

Published Fri, Feb 02 2008 11:36 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Employment, Inflation, GDP, Savings, Muddle Through
What Would Warren Do?

Warren Buffet to the Rescue? How to Earn 20% in Tax-Free Income What Would Warren Do? A Crisis Creates an Opportunity It's All About Valuations There Are Times to Be Grateful It was only a few years ago that I use to sit down at this computer on Friday...

Published Fri, Feb 02 2008 9:46 PM by John Mauldin
Consumers, Credit and Complications

Consumers, Credit, and Complications Unemployment is Understated The Credit Crisis is Simply Getting Worse The Falling Knife of Credit Spreads Capital Ratios Are Under More and More Pressure The ISM Services Survey Simply Falls out of Bed Upgrades, Orlando...

Published Fri, Feb 02 2008 11:44 PM by John Mauldin
What Does a Recession Look Like?

What Does a Recession Look Like? The Starbucks Index Consumer Spending Slows Down Rising Unemployment Starts to Show Up It is All About Valuations Phoenix, Prime Rib and My Conference What does a recession look like? How does it feel? What does it mean...

Published Fri, Feb 02 2008 9:42 PM by John Mauldin

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Thoughts From The Frontline

Syndication

Recent Posts

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Archives

Why Investors Fail

Lies and Other Statistics

The Velocity Of Money

The Muddle Through Question

Is it a Bull, Bear or Cowardly Lion Market?

More Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis

Where is the Bottom in Housing?

Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis

Muddle Through and Your Long Term Returns

What's That Hissing Sound?

Stagflation and the Fed

The Muddle Through Fed

What Would Warren Do?

Consumers, Credit and Complications

What Does a Recession Look Like?