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  • Catastrophic Success

    400 Billion Yellow Aspirins
    The US Government Is in the “No-Money-Down” Mortgage Business
    Crash Alert?
    Is Social Security a Ponzi?
    Catastrophic Success
    Europe, and Breaking the Light-Speed Barrier

    ...
  • Is That Recovery We See?

    The market, we keep hearing and reading, is telling us that there is recovery around the corner. And pundits point to data that seems to suggest the worst is behind us. The leading economic indicators, while still down significantly, seem to be in the process of bottoming. There is a large amount of stimulus in the pipeline. Mark-to-market has been modified. Housing seems to be finding a bottom, if you look at the rise in sales from January. And so on.
    In this week's letter, we look at what past recoveries have looked like in terms of corporate earnings; and we look at the continued slide in earnings on the S&P 500, which has a negative price-to-earnings ratio looming in future months (yes, that is not a typo, we have an unprecedented earnings multiple). We take a peek at housing and foreclosures. There is just so much bad news out there (like continued unemployment) that it just has to get better, doesn't it? This should make for an interesting letter....
  • A New Asset Class, Part Two

    Last week's letter was the first part of a speech I have been giving on what I think will be the rise of a new asset class. This week will be the second and final part. Let me set up this section with a few paragraphs from last week's letter and then a quick summary. If you want to read the entire letter from last week, you can go to the website archives. But first, a quick note. George Friedman from Stratfor was at my daughter's wedding rehearsal dinner last night. He had just found out about the invasion of South Ossetia by Georgia and was keeping track of the events over his Blackberry from his correspondents on the ground in Georgia....
  • Blame it on Demographics

    Blame it on Demographics Last week we talked briefly about some of the problems surrounding Social Security, and especially the possibility that the deficit problems may be worse than we thought because of the trend towards (on average) living longer...
  • Social Security's Flawed Assumption

    Social Security and Other Myths Social Security in the US (and the equivalent in Europe and Japan), as well as some pension plans, might be in far worse shape than you think. And the reason may be very good news for you, and almost certainly will be for...