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The Return of Muddle Through

The Return of Muddle Through The dollar reaches new lows. The housing market shows no sign of a bottom. Oil almost touches $84 before backing off. Interest rates go up after the Fed cuts. So naturally the stock market keeps climbing. But then, consumer...

Published 09-28-2007 3:13 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Dollar, The Fed, China, Recession, Inflation, GDP, Chinese Yuan, Euro, Housing Bubble, Credit Crisis, Muddle Through

Sea Change at the Fed

Sea Change at the Fed "Of his bones are coral made: Those are pearls that were his eyes: Nothing of him that doth fade, But doth suffer a sea change Into something rich and strange" (The Tempest - Shakespeare) The term "sea change"...

Published 09-21-2007 3:12 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Fed, Recession, Ben Bernanke, Inflation, Consumer Price Index, Housing, Subprime

Are We There Yet?

Introduction Summer driving season is almost upon us. I remember more than a few long road trips with young kids, who would eventually get bored and tired and lulled into sleep, and with a stop for gas would wake up and ask, "Are we there yet?"...

Published 05-18-2007 2:52 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, Oil, Inflation

Stuck in the Middle With You

Introduction Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right, here I am Stuck in the middle with you! - Stealers Wheel, 1974 The recent data on the economy is stronger than was expected. Does this mean that the slowdown we have seen for the past few quarters...

Published 05-04-2007 2:50 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, GDP, Housing, Yield Curve, Inverted Yield Curve

The 51.9% Recession

Introduction What are the odds of a recession? According to a recent Fed study, they may be 51.9%. Close enough to 50-50 for government work. We analyze this study, look at a few graphs which show a major disconnect between the housing market and the...

Published 02-23-2007 2:29 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, Inflation

Forecast 2007: The Goldilocks Recession

Introduction How has another year come and gone so quickly? It seems like someone hit the fast forward button. And once again, all too soon, it is time for me to demonstrate my masochistic nature and write a forecast issue. Rather than going into details...

Published 01-05-2007 2:18 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, Margins, Goldilocks

The Recession of 2007

Introduction One of my favorite cartoons of all time is that of a very scrawny mouse caught out in an open field with a rather large hawk swooping down on it. There is no place to run, no place to hide. All the mouse can do is face the hawk and give him...

Published 12-01-2006 2:10 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, Housing, Consumer Spending, Retail Sales, Inverted Yield Curve, Real Estate, Manufacturing

The Visible Slowdown

Introduction Yesterday the Philadelphia Fed Business Economic Survey came in at the lowest level since the recession in 2001. Some argue that it is just one month's worth of data, and "...besides, it is Philadelphia. Those numbers are always...

Published 09-23-2006 1:54 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, Bond Market, Technology, Philadelphia Fed Business Economic Survey, South Africa

Goldilocks or Micawber?

Introduction This week I write from Grand Lake Stream in Maine. It has been a long time since I have taken a week off from writing, but I think this is the week to do it. But that means, gentle reader, that you get an upgrade in quality, as my friends...

Published 07-21-2006 1:41 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, Japan, Inflation, Goldilocks

The Possibility of a Recession

Introduction The economy seems to be slowing. Will this be a mid-cycle slowdown as it has been the last two decades or will it evolve into a recession? In either event, does it presage a bear market in equities? Or is this just another oversold buying...

Published 07-14-2006 1:40 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Fed, Recession, Stagflation

Probabilities of Recession

Introduction This week we look at the possible direction of interest rates both at the long end and the short end. Bottom line: history suggests there is some serious volatility in the future on the long end of the interest rate curve later in the year...

Published 02-24-2006 12:38 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, Yield Curve

The Yield Curve, Part 8

Introduction The level of attention to the recent and mild inversion of the yield curve has bordered on hysteria in the media. Does it portend a recession? Or is, as Ethan Harris, the chief economist of Lehman Brothers suggests, the bond market simply...

Published 12-30-2005 12:22 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, bonds, Yield Curve, Yield Curve Inversion

Do Trade Deficits Matter?

Introduction "I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand now, it is more likely than not that it will be a financial crisis rather than a policy foresight that will force change...

Published 12-16-2005 12:18 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Dollar, Trade Deficit, China, Recession, GDP, Housing, Assett Inflation, The Millennium Wave

What Will Cause the Next Recession?

Introduction It's a race to see what will be the cause, or maybe better put, what will be blamed for the next economic slowdown. Will it be oil and rising energy prices? What about a slowdown in the housing market? You can't count out the Fed...

Published 08-19-2005 9:55 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Recession, Alan Greenspan, Oil

The Next Bush Recession

The Next Bush Recession This week we enter the realm controversial. The election is over, and now reality will impinge its often unpleasant odor over the political landscape of the hopes and dreams of all sides of the debates. I explore the world of Republican...

Published 11-06-2004 3:18 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Elections, George W Bush, Recession

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