Browse by Tags

Thoughts From The Frontline

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Syndication

Archives

  • The Eurozone: Collateral Damage

    Now we’re watching another Greek drama that could have significant unintended consequences – far beyond anything the market has priced in today. Then again, maybe not. Maybe the market is right this time. When we enter unknown territory, who knows what we will find? Fertile valleys and treasure, or deserts and devastation? Today we look at the situation in Europe and ponder what we don’t know. Greece provides a wonderful learning opportunity.

    ...
  • All Spain All the Time

    Last Monday I was in Paris and was asked to do a spot on CNBC London. I arrived at the studios an hour early due to a misunderstanding of the time zones, so while trying to catch up on the news I listened to CNBC. I had just written about Spain in last week's letter and guessed that was what they wanted to talk to me about, but for the full hour before I got on it seemed like every guest wanted to talk about Spain. When I had my turn and indeed got the Spain question, I smiled and noted that we were now in a period when it would be "All Spain All the Time," for at least the next year. I should have noted that there would be brief interruptions where we glanced at Portugal and perhaps Ireland, but the real focus would be on Spain.

    ...
  • Unintended Consequences

    For every government law hurriedly passed in response to a current or recent crisis, there will be two or more unintended consequences, which will have equal or greater negative effects then the problem it was designed to fix. A corollary is that unelected institutions are at least as bad and possibly worse than elected governments. A further corollary is that laws passed to appease a particular group, whether voters or a particular industry, will have at least three unintended consequences, most of which will eventually have the opposite effect than the intended outcomes and transfer costs to innocent bystanders.

    ...
  • Where is the ECB Printing Press?

    Where Can I Find €3 Trillion?
    When Leverage Comes Back to Haunt You
    The German Dilemma
    So How Do We Solve the Eurozone Problem?
    Where Is the ECB Printing Press?
    DC, Cleveland, and New York

    ...
    Filed under: , , , ,
  • European Summit: A Plan with No Details

    A Definite Plan (Minus Those Sticky Details)
    Dear Mario
    When Leverage Is the Kind-of Answer
    Meanwhile Back in Portugal
    Let’s Just Change the Rules
    San Francisco, Kilkenny, Atlanta, DC … and the World Series Loss

    ...
  • The End of the World, Part 1

    What Is the CBO Seeing (or Smoking?)
    The End of the World, Part 1
    Who Will Rescue the Rescuers?
    The Problems of Debt in the Eurozone
    Thoughts on Jackson Hole
    Some Thoughts on Getting Older

    ...
  • An Economy at Stall Speed

    In This Issue:

    An Economy at Stall Speed
    Is There a Recession in Our Future?
    What I Told the Senators
    Escalating Eurozone Interbank Liquidity Crisis: Dollar-Euro Impact?
    Time for Friends, Fish, and Wine

    ...
  • Could the Eurozone Break Up?

    Could the Eurozone Break Up?
    The EMU Has Always Fallen Short…
    Surely a Break-Up Remains Inconceivable?
    Has it Really Come to This?
    Kiev, Geneva and London

    ...
  • Economic Whiplash

    In This Issue:

    Non-Farm Payrolls Even Worse than the Headline
    Velocity Rolls Over
    Intolerable Choices for the Eurozone
    And It Just Gets Worse
    Tuscany

    ...
  • The Pain in Spain

    Last week we talked about Greece. But the problems are more than just Greece. We look at two very different views of the euro, and then opposing thoughts on Spain. Is Spain a problem or not? And how can the US keep on spending? Is there a limit? There is a lot to cover in what has been an interesting, if confusing, week.

    Before we get into the meat of the letter, I want to give you a chance to register for my 7th (where do the years go?!) annual Strategic Investment Conference, cosponsored with my friends at Altegris Investments. The conference will be held April 22-24 and, as always, in La Jolla, California. The speaker lineup is powerful. Already committed are Dr. Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Dr. Niall Ferguson, and George Friedman, as well as your humble analyst. We are talking with several other equally exciting speakers and expect those to firm up shortly.

    Look at that lineup. These are the guys who got the calls right over the past few years. They called the housing crisis, the credit bubble, and the recession. And, in my opinion, these are some of the best in the world at giving us ideas about where we are headed.

    ...