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  • The Dismal Science Really Is

    There's a reason economics is called the dismal science, and weeks like this just give it further meaning. In economics, there is what you see and what you don't see. This week we are going to look at the headline data we see and take a look at what most observers do not see. Then we will try and think about what it really means. With employment, housing and the ISM numbers, there is a lot to cover. And this letter will print out longer than usual as there are a lot of charts. Warning: remove sharp objects from the vicinity and pour yourself your favorite adult beverage. This does not make for fun reading.

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  • The Case for a Fed Rate Hike

    Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a 'V'-shaped recovery. And there are signs that in fact that is the case. Today we will look at some of those, and then take up the topic of when the Fed will raise rates. We open the case and look at the evidence. Is there enough to come to a real conviction? I think there is. (And at the end of the letter I mention two conferences I am speaking at in the next few months, in Vancouver and San Francisco.)

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