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Thoughts From The Frontline

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  • The Dismal Science Really Is

    There's a reason economics is called the dismal science, and weeks like this just give it further meaning. In economics, there is what you see and what you don't see. This week we are going to look at the headline data we see and take a look at what most observers do not see. Then we will try and think about what it really means. With employment, housing and the ISM numbers, there is a lot to cover. And this letter will print out longer than usual as there are a lot of charts. Warning: remove sharp objects from the vicinity and pour yourself your favorite adult beverage. This does not make for fun reading.

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  • Further Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis

    When confronted about an apparent change of his opinions, John Maynard Keynes is reported to have said, 'When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?' The earnings season for the 4th quarter is almost 80% complete, and the facts are dismal. It is worse than the current data shows, and could get uglier. Unemployment is increasing, and consumers are both saving more and spending less as incomes are not keeping pace with what little inflation there is. All in all, a very different set of facts than a few quarters ago. This week we examine some of the new facts, and start out by analyzing how Thoughts from the Frontline has done over the past two years with some of the more important predictions. It should make for an interesting letter....