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  • The Future of Public Debt

    In This Issue:

    The Future of Public Debt
    A Bit of Background
    Drastic Measures
    The Future Public Debt Trajectory
    Debt Projections
    Phoenix, Tokyo, and London

    This week I find myself in Bangkok, and I must admit to enjoying the experience a great deal, so much so that I am going to preview a portion of my coming book, Endgame, so that I can go back out and play tourist. Next week I get back to my more or less regular schedule, but I think you will enjoy this first portion of chapter six, where we look at an important paper from the Bank of International Settlements on 'The Future of Public Debt.' It is not a pretty one. We are watching one of the last great bubbles begin to deflate - the bubble of government and government debt - all over the developed world. This is a serious weight that will be a drag on our growth, and it is interesting to contemplate as I sit in Bangkok, a city that is vibrant and teeming with opportunity.

    Endgame will be in the bookstores in a few weeks, but let me once again ask you to not pre-order the book from Amazon or online. Pre-order books do not get into the book sales numbers (long story and more information than you want to know). I encourage you to pre-order from your local book store if you have one. Let me note that in the portion below, the pronoun we is used a lot. It is not the royal we - I do have a co-author, Jonathan Tepper, and this book has very much been a collaboration. More on some Thai thoughts at the end, but let's jump into today's Thoughts from the Frontline.

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  • Whatever Happened to Decoupling?

    The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were starting to provide a consumer base for the world. And Europe's new and growing markets would be able to stave off problems from abroad and stay on their own growth path. The world, we were assured last year, would not suffer from problems in the US economy. Today, we look at evidence that this might not quite be the case. And if it is not, those who look for diversification in global markets may be disappointed. Also, I quickly look back at my January forecasts and feel it may be time for a mid-course correction. It seems I may have been a little too optimistic. It should make for an interesting letter....
  • Why Trade Deficits Matter

    Introduction We have been looking at the US trade deficit and the global trade imbalance for the past two weeks. It is currently an unsustainable trend, and thus will stop at some point. The questions are when and how? We will conclude this series today...