February 2011 - Thoughts From The Frontline

This highly acclaimed blog is primarily focused on private money management, financial services, and investments. John Mauldin demonstrates an unusual breadth of expertise, as illustrated by the wide variety of issues addressed in-depth in his writings.

Thoughts From The Frontline

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    • When Irish Eyes Are Voting

      In This Issue:

      When Irish Eyes Are Voting
      An Extra “15 Million” Homes
      Some Thoughts on the Middle East
      Tokyo, Oregon, and Dallas

      When Irish eyes are smiling,
      Sure, 'tis like the morn in Spring.
      In the lilt of Irish laughter
      You can hear the angels sing.
      When Irish hearts are happy,
      All the world seems bright and gay.
      And when Irish eyes are smiling,
      Sure, they steal your heart away.

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    • A Random Walk Around the Frontlines

      In This Issue:

      An Improving Economy
      But Where Are the Jobs?
      Time for the Fed to Declare Victory and Go Home
      Home, Fed Friday, and Tokyo


      I am on yet another plane and writing, and I'll finish this letter in Phoenix. As I start, I am not sure of a theme for this week's letter, so (with a tip of the hat to my friend Burton Malkiel, who I will see at Rob Arnott's conference in a few months), today we do a Random Walk Around the Frontlines, surveying what's going on in the world. We'll start with the Fed and interest rates, look at inflation, and see how far we get. And I might get a little controversial, but long-time readers know that is not all that unusual.

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    • The Future of Public Debt

      In This Issue:

      The Future of Public Debt
      A Bit of Background
      Drastic Measures
      The Future Public Debt Trajectory
      Debt Projections
      Phoenix, Tokyo, and London

      This week I find myself in Bangkok, and I must admit to enjoying the experience a great deal, so much so that I am going to preview a portion of my coming book, Endgame, so that I can go back out and play tourist. Next week I get back to my more or less regular schedule, but I think you will enjoy this first portion of chapter six, where we look at an important paper from the Bank of International Settlements on 'The Future of Public Debt.' It is not a pretty one. We are watching one of the last great bubbles begin to deflate - the bubble of government and government debt - all over the developed world. This is a serious weight that will be a drag on our growth, and it is interesting to contemplate as I sit in Bangkok, a city that is vibrant and teeming with opportunity.

      Endgame will be in the bookstores in a few weeks, but let me once again ask you to not pre-order the book from Amazon or online. Pre-order books do not get into the book sales numbers (long story and more information than you want to know). I encourage you to pre-order from your local book store if you have one. Let me note that in the portion below, the pronoun we is used a lot. It is not the royal we - I do have a co-author, Jonathan Tepper, and this book has very much been a collaboration. More on some Thai thoughts at the end, but let's jump into today's Thoughts from the Frontline.

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    • An Excerpt from Endgame

      In This Issue:

      The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions
      Three Structural Changes
      Lower Trend Growth
      Thailand, Phoenix, and Japan


      Tonight (Thursday) I am flying to Thailand and will 'lose' my normal Friday writing day, so I am going to give you a preview of my new book, Endgame, out and in the bookstores next month. This is the beginning of chapter four, and it stands alone quite nicely. It will print out a little longer than normal, as there are a lot of graphs. My co-author Jonathan Tepper and I deal with why there will be slower growth, more volatility, and more frequent recessions in our future.

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