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  • The Room – 07/10/2009

    In the June edition of The Casey Report, and again in the edition that was put to bed July 2, we warned that the U.S. equities markets were on the edge of the next leg down in the slow-motion crisis now unfolding.

    While there is no such thing as a sure thing, the idea that the worst could be behind the economy is almost unimaginable, given the deep structural flaws and governments doing what Doug Casey correctly calls the 'exact opposite' of what they should be doing.

    Namely trying to solve a debt crisis by adding more debt.

    Of course, as turmoil returns to the broader stock market, investors will again scramble for "safe harbor" investments, and that spells trouble for commodities and commodity-related equities, which are viewed by many as 'recovery' investments....
  • The Room – 03/16/2009

    This week I tripped over an old musical favorite, I'm Your Captain, by Grand Funk Railroad, which is what I'm listening to as I begin this weekly missive. While the song has a little rust on it, for those of you who haven't taken a ride on Grand Funk Railroad of late, it's a nice enough trip. Now, on to what seems important this week. This week Vikram Pandit, the CEO of Citigroup, a bank that has managed to lose $38 billion over the last five quarters, sent around an internal memorandum in which he said he was "encouraged" by the company's performance so far in 2009....
  • The Room - 10/24/2008

    I have woken in the pre-dawn to find our direst predictions coming true, with global stock markets taking yet another pounding and U.S. stock futures limit down. Serving as a proxy for the mindset now gripping governments around the world, French President Sarkozy has announced that the French government will, henceforth, buy shares in important French companies in an attempt to prop them up. 'We will intervene massively whenever a strategic enterprise needs our money,' said Sarkozy, a supposed economic conservative, as he pounded the table on behalf of nationalizing industry. The New Age of big government is upon us. Armed with Harry Potter-like magical monetary wands, they are wildly conjuring a deluge of money from thin air to bind the free market and keep it from facilitating the resolution of economic and investment dislocations created over decades. Bud Conrad tells me he is having a hard time adding up all the fiat money that has been committed to the battle for economic - and, by extension, political - survival over the past couple of months. The numbers rolling off the lips of officialdumb have progressed well past the hundreds of millions, or even hundreds of billions, and have now reached the trillions. In that theme, the Fed announced this week that it would drop over half a trillion - $540 billion, to be exact - on the purchase of suspect commercial paper now clogging the portfolios of 'safe harbor' money market funds. Given that there is a total of $3.4 trillion of your money resting in those very same funds, the commitment of $540 billion - about 16% of the total - should be taken as an indicator of just how bad the problem really is....
  • The Room - 09/26/2008

    What a world I have returned to from my cloistered retreat at the beautiful Vivenda Miranda, scenically situated on a cliff outside of the quaint port town of Lagos, Portugal. Everything has changed. Everything is changing. The storm we have so long tried to help you prepare for is upon us. At this point, I can only hope you have your sails rigged for the storm now breaking, because time is running out. The violent volatility I warned of when last I wrote has arrived, with towering waves now rising up and smashing into the economy - and as an unavoidable consequence, our personal portfolios -- from all sides. Overnight the holders of my mortgage, WaMu, failed, the largest bank failure in history. This week, the golf course that I usually play on was taken over by the government... last week it belonged to AIG. As you don't need me to tell you, that same government now wants to spend over a trillion dollars to bail out Wall Street and to shore up the money market mutual funds - which have so far flown under the radar screen despite portfolios stuffed to the brim with bad paper. While no one was paying attention, U.S. automakers used their election year leverage to win approval for $25 billion in low-interest loans....
  • Where Is the Economy Going in the Next Six Months?

    As investors, the question we have to focus most of our attention on just now is what impact the credit crisis, the bursting housing bubble and the actions of the U.S. government will have on the economy and investment markets in the next six months. We have seen the Fed and the federal government move to panic mode as they try to keep the system afloat. As expected, they have cut rates, as well as having given away checks and rearranged the Federal Reserve's entire balance sheet. The underlying problems have not been fixed with this massive bailout. There are still many credit pot holes out there and new lending remains highly constrained. Even the government tax rebate checks, rather than boosting the domestic economy, were largely absorbed by higher oil prices. The resulting cut-back in consumer spending, coupled with ongoing constrictions in lending, will cause a severe slowing of the economy....
  • The Battle for $900 Gold

    by David Galland Casey Research- International Speculator The current "battle" in the gold market is around the $900 level, a fairly steep retrenchment from the recent highs of $1,011. Some investors, their hopes dashed that $1,000 would be...
  • The Room 4/14/08

    Written: April 11, 2008 Dear Readers, No question about it, we humans like to keep things simple. And no wonder; if the world is anything, it is chaotic. And so we look for our philosophy in un-taxing nuggets, the sort, perhaps, that might grace the back...
  • The Room 3/24/08

    Dear Reader , It used to be of no little pride in the small New England town where Casey Research is headquartered that school went forward, no matter the weather. Hail, 8-foot-high snow drifts, ice rain and, should they have occurred hereabouts (which...
  • The Room 3/17/08

    Dear Reader , You don't need me to tell you, but the $1,000 mark is the latest to fall beneath gold's mighty rise. Even so, as a benchmark, the number $1,000 is meaningless. It represents no new high in the inflation-adjusted prices that count...
  • The Room 3/10/08

    Dear Fellow Global Adventurers , This past week I came across worthy comments from Dr. Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report in which he comments that, by continuing to cut interest rates, Bernanke will eventually "destroy the U.S. dollar...
  • The Room 3/3/08

    Dear Readers, It's getting to the point where even the most determined optimist is having a hard time finding a good reason to roll out of bed. Among just the smattering of news that crossed the lens this week... Producer prices rose 7.4 percent in...
  • The Room 2/18/08

    Dear Reader, Foolishly, I now realize, I closed last week's column by announcing that I would endeavor to write today's entire missive without a single mention of... okay, well, just this once... government. Some readers have suggested that I...
  • The Room 2/11/08

    Dear Readers, Good morning! And welcome to this edition of The Room! If that salutation suggests a certain snap in my step, well, you'd be right. After all, one can't let one's attitude be overly colored by the gloom and pessimism now stalking...