The Room 09/19/2008

September 19, 2008

Dear Readers,

Hi, I am Olivier Garret, this week’s editor of The Room.

What a rough week out there. My mind wanders as I drive at a crawl (I am not known to be a patient driver) behind a car full of “leaf peepers,” as Vermonters affectionately call the tourists who invade our state every autumn. I wonder how my friend David Galland is doing in Portugal, sipping the local wines with no access to his emails? It may be the worst week to be without market news -- or perhaps not…

Hopefully David is enjoying himself while celebrating an old friend’s birthday with a group of other newsletter editors and industry peers.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke are not exactly having a day at the beach as they try to solve our nation’s problems. By the way, this past week, it seemed to me that Lehman drew the wrong lottery number while AIG appears to have hit the jackpot. I wonder how many other “private enterprises” will be lucky enough to get bailed out at taxpayers’ expense in the next few months: WaMu, Wachovia, and hundreds of other financial institutions, GM, Ford, Delta, United?

Where Is the Bottom of the Markets?

For several years, we have been warning about the emerging crisis in our publications, and during the past few months, The Casey Report has been emphasizing that what started as a subprime mortgage issue is now quickly evolving into a full-scale depression. I actually wish that our analysis had been flawed and that the government officials who had claimed that the subprime crisis was contained and the markets would rebound in the second half of the year had been right.

Unfortunately, the Fed’s quick fixes did not stick and current events are reinforcing our conviction that this is much more than a normal cyclical correction. It seems as though no securities are being spared these days. Of course, the financials are taking a beating as expected, but we are feeling the ripple effect in all sectors of the economy, including commodities and the junior sector.

Recession fears usually negatively affect the commodities market, as investors expect industrial activity and consumption to decline. This time, however, the very sharp correction of recent months in commodities has been amplified by the need for liquidity on the part of many hedge funds and institutional investors.

Is this the end of the commodity bull market? I am convinced that we are actually feeling the effect of a relatively short-lived, albeit very painful correction. As the Fed and the Treasury continue to intervene in the market, they continue to lose ground and credibility, caught between a sharp recession and strong inflationary pressures. In an effort to bail out the financial sector (soon to be followed by the broader insurance, auto, and airline industries), they have no choice but to start injecting hundreds of billions in liquidity into a contracting market place. This, in turn, will contribute to the makeover of a stagflation period of historical proportion that will make the ‘70s look like a tea party.


Is it time to run for the exit? My answer is a definite “No,” but don’t take my word alone for it. I would like to quote a short excerpt from a fascinating interview of one of the most respected players in the resource markets, Rick Rule. You can read the full interview in this month’s edition of BIG GOLD. Here it is:

    David Galland: Hello Rick, thanks for taking the time to talk to us. I guess the first question is, you're obviously very optimistic right now about the big picture for natural resources. Why?

    Rick Rule: Well, I'm optimistic in the sense that the prices of assets are getting down into reasonable ranges, and I think they are headed lower. I think we are in a cyclical decline in a secular bull market for resources, and traditionally that's been the second best opportunity of the entire cycle. The first opportunity, of course, is in the long lull that precedes a bull market, but the next chance that you get in a big market easily comes from secular declines. I'm reminded of the 1975 decline in the major 1970’s bull market where commodity prices fell by half and commodities-related equities fell by some greater percentage before the huge, huge, huge hyperbolic rise that occurred in the second part of that decade. . .

    DG: Are investors getting smarter, from your standpoint? The ones you're talking to? Are they focusing on quality at this point, or is there still a market for the paper trades?

    RR: There's always a market for lies, which is unfortunate. You know, "Hope springs eternal." Many people who are attracted to risk markets are people who have been fairly successful in life and are therefore quite aggressive. The prevailing market sentiment among the average retail customer right now is sell or despair. They're either frozen or they're despairing and on the sell side, which is also a very good sign. I've joked for years that the future outlook for my own personal portfolio could be determined by the current-month phone bill. When incoming calls are slow, it means twelve months out; I'm going to make a lot of money. And certainly by that indicator, these are very bullish times.



    So Why Are We Still Bullish on Commodities?

    In spite of a sharp recession, the rest of the world will not stop (although it may experience downturns for a while). The aspirations of hundreds of millions of emerging middle-class Chinese and Indian citizens will eventually be attained -- they will continue to work hard to see their standard of living climb and will increase their consumption of food, energy and durable goods. This, coupled with the inflation and debasement of the dollar, will inevitably start a new run for tangible commodities long before this crisis is over.

    It is hard not to panic in the current environment and not to run for cover. Instead, we believe it is time to adjust our strategy, taking new input into consideration, of course, but generally speaking, stay the course: continue to invest in precious metals, energy, and other commodities, and buy stocks of discounted top-quality producers and juniors. Some reallocations could also be used to minimize tax liabilities for the year.

    In the meantime, make sure that if some of your stink bids get filled, you take money off the table as soon as you can on short-term news. Over the last few weeks, we have seen some great stocks get hit hard by redemptions, then rebound somewhat (20%, 30%, or 50% in a few days). The trend could continue downward for a few months before we see a real turnaround in the resource markets; in the meantime one needs to use the current volatility to acquire great stocks cheaply and take some quick profits. Last week, our Casey Energy Confidential alert provided an opportunity for double-digit gains within a couple of days on several stocks. Subscribers were able to recover their initial investment and retain free positions on some great stocks.

    More than ever, we believe in gold and quality gold stocks. I would like to share with you an article recently sent by Nicholas Pingitore, one of our readers:


      S*HUI*T Happens!

      This summer has mining and resource investors pulling out their hair and pounding their desks – heck, my computer almost ended up in the pool! Let's see… the government nationalizes Fannie and Freddie… Lehman and Washington Mutual are on the brink of collapse… the FDIC watch list of “troubled” banks grows… and… and… gold and silver are plummeting, and taking just about anything linked to them along for the ride. What the heck is going on!

      Of course, we knew this was going to happen, this is why we bought mining and resource stocks in the first place, and we were right to do so. So, instead of losing our heads and drowning our hard drives, let's figure out what’s happening to our investments.

      So, what is going on? The problem is size. And in the resource sector, it matters. Take a look at the chart below of the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI). Specifically, take note of the last column. This is the total market cap of each stock that makes up the index.


    HUI Index Components
    Company Name Symbol % Weighting Market Cap (9/11/08)
    Barrick Gold ABX 15.83% 23.35 billion
    Goldcorp Inc GG 14.98% 17.72
    Newmont Mining NEM 11.91% 16.3
    Randgold Resources Ads GOLD 6.57% 2.45
    Iamgold Corp IAG 6.43% 1.32
    Eldorado Gold Corp EGO 5.80% 2.02
    Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM 5.49% 6.31
    Gold Fields Ltd Adr GFI 5.21% 4.64
    Kinross Gold KGC 4.96% 7.29
    Harmony Gold Mining Adr HMY 4.80% 2.67
    Yamana Gold AUY 4.12% 5.27
    Hecla Mining HL 3.91% 0.54
    Coeur d'Alene Mines CDE 3.54% 0.77
    Northgate Minerals NXG 3.47% 0.32
    Golden Star Resources GSS 2.99% 0.28
    TOTAL MARKET CAP     91.25 Billion


    The total market cap of the HUI is less than $92 billion. Now compare that figure with the below chart of diversified companies.

     
    Company Name Symbol Market Cap (9/11/08)
    Johnson & Johnson JNJ 197.12 billion
    Microsoft MSFT 244.42
    Exxon Mobil XOM 386.07
    Intel INTC 111.49
    General Electric GE 270.98
    Proctor & Gamble PG 219.23


      Editor’s note: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG used to be in the above list but we had to write their market cap down to almost $0 and take them out...

      Each of the above companies has a market cap greater than the combined market caps of all the companies in the HUI index. And keep in mind, the HUI is comprised of the largest un-hedged miners in the world! This is what I mean by size – we are in a tiny sector – and the following is an example of why it matters.

      Take the case of Ospraie Management, LLC, which, according to Bloomberg, was once the largest commodity hedge fund. Controlling $9 billion in March 2008, they now have $4 billion under management, having unwound several billion dollars of losing positions. And they probably used leverage. If we assume leverage of 10:1, a modest figure for the industry, against a $5 billion loss, $50 billion of de-leveraging is not an unreasonable estimate.

      As you can see, if even a small percentage of that de-leveraging took place in the HUI, it would have a material impact – and an even greater impact on the juniors – and we're only talking about one fund. Selling that would have a negligible effect on any of the major stock indexes has taken a heavy toll on the resource sector. But our day is coming.

      The amplified effect that selling has had on our stocks, resulting in outsized declines, will work to our advantage on the way up. The fallout from the credit and liquidity crises is hitting everything, including our stocks and our sector, but this is a short-term situation. As the crises deepen, the appeal of owning precious metals and those who mine them will hit the mutual fund industry and the mass investor class. And when it does, the tidal wave of demand will swamp the size of the sector, sending share prices to the moon -- which will likely be the first refueling stop on the way to Mars.

      When Main Street finally awakes to the troubles on Wall Street, gold, silver and commodities, and almost anything related to them, will be the places to be. This hasn't happened yet. But if the history of mass investor behavior has shown anything, it most certainly is this… it happens.

      (Nick is a commodity trader and system designer. He trades 72 worldwide futures markets on 12 global exchanges, but specializes in the precious metals sector. Nick is also an expert on risk and money management and co-created the trading methodology Trend-Capturing. He trades and invests in resource equities for a private group of investors as well as himself. He is a registered lecturer for the American Association of Individual Investors, and holds a Bachelors of Engineering from SUNY Maritime College at Fort Schuyler. He is currently managing director of Commodity Trading Solutions, LLC. See http://www.commodity-trading-solutions.com/)

    Back to Olivier – as I am not a regular columnist for Casey Research, I would like to share a little bit of my personal experience.


    Can Our Government Save Us from All Evil?

    All of the rhetoric from our politicians on what our government should do to protect its citizens reminds me of a period 18 years ago when I traveled frequently on business throughout what was then Eastern Europe.

    I remember arriving in Warsaw about twelve months after the fall of the Berlin Wall in East Germany; the city was grim, dark, and polluted. The best hotel in the city was in a state of disrepair with broken fixtures. Service was poor and the food was horrendous (the hotel was still state-run).


    PoloniaTodayPic-1
    http://www.poloniatoday.com/history13.htm


    I traveled around the country to the famous city of Gdansk, seat of the Solidarity revolution and one of the largest ship building ports on the Baltic Sea. On the road, I met a few smoky Trabants, some local versions of Fiats (1960s design), and many horse-drawn carriages (trucks were rare then). Everywhere I went, life was grim. Most enterprises were state-run with large bureaucracies and very low productivity.

    Throughout this trip, as well as many prior trips to Yugoslavia, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Romania, I remember being horrified by the state of disrepair, sadness, and darkness of the communist bloc societies.

    My trip to Poland in 1990 was in the aftermath of the fall of the Berlin Wall; in Warsaw, there was suddenly a glimmer of hope in the midst of the darkness. Many locals immediately started to set up “shops” on the sidewalks, trying to sell whatever miserable belongings they could spare in order to trade them for something else they needed.

    Over the next 3 years, I returned to Poland several times, and each time I discovered progress in this country’s steady march away from the yoke of 50 years of state dictatorship. With each trip, I saw gigantic state enterprises shutting down with all of the disruption and pain it caused in people’s lives. These inefficient monsters were soon replaced by smaller, more nimble entrepreneurial firms. Streets began to look cleaner and brighter, with new paint on many buildings and new cars parked along the roads. For many people, standards of living were visibly improving; others were still the victims of the harsh transition to capitalism.

    In 2006, I returned to Poland after 13 years of absence. I found in Warsaw a modern and vibrant city that could rival many other Western European cities of similar size. It was clean, modern, with signs of new wealth throughout its middle class. Although I am sure there are still some people left on the margins of society, they have become a small minority.


    MorePics-1


    In all, it took 15-plus years of hard work and entrepreneurship to rebuild a modern society out of the destruction brought by 50 years of socialism. The Poles rejected overwhelmingly their central government and adopted many of the free-market ideas that made for the early success of America. Their journey was often painful, but they transformed their country into a better, more prosperous land. They quickly became more successful than their East German neighbors, who were led to believe that their salvation was to come from their fellow West Germans rather than through their own enterprise and hard work.

    It is interesting to me that after having “won” the Cold War and having freed Europe, the United States is gradually becoming a centralized state where we abandon capitalism and individual liberties in the name of fear of failure or terrorism. Not all is perfect in Poland, but they have moved in the right direction (at least until their integration into the EU), while capitalism and entrepreneurship are being trampled in the U.S.

    Recessions are painful and difficult to deal with, but it is better to poke the bubble early than to prolong the pain. I do not know any other alternative than to let the market correction take its course. Delaying the burst of a bubble only makes the pain worse when it finally explodes.

    I spent several years of my working life restructuring businesses. Many people have asked me: How difficult is it to lay off half of the employees of a distressed business? How can you do it? Invariably, my answer is: very easily. I look at the remaining half and know that if I do not make a difficult choice today, the business will close and the other half will lose their jobs as well.

    After failures and bankruptcies, people and nations have the opportunity for a fresh start; with innovation and hard work, generations of Americans have managed to better their lives and those of their children. I can’t say I feel we have achieved the same in the last 10-20 years.

    Back to what comes next. I have asked our Chief Economist Bud Conrad to share a few comments and a chart that illustrates the dilemma faced by Paulson and Bernanke:

      Credit slowing problems feed on themselves. When credit slows, spending diminishes, and the lower spending weakens the economy. A weaker economy affects business expansion, slowing wage growth and reducing both spending and borrowing.

      In this interconnected world, slowing in the U.S. will also affect China, whose exports will also have to slow down. There are many interrelated problems, so the slowing will be worldwide.


      ForeignCentralBanksSoldOff


      Unfortunately, foreign reinvestment is part of the systems of U.S. debt, and we are already seeing a significant impact, as depicted in the chart above. That prompted the Fed’s reaction to the biggest stock market fall since the days just after the New York towers. On September 15, Paulson was to inject the biggest amount of daily liquidity since 2001, a whopping $70 B in just one day.

    Bud correctly points out that as our domestic consumption slows, China and other exporters to the U.S. will see a decline in their activity that will be accompanied by a corresponding reduction in the financing of our debt. Continued injection in liquidity by the Fed will contribute to further devaluation of the dollar.

    Foreign lenders see their U.S. investments being hit by the combination of currency devaluation and write-offs of stocks and bonds. The only possible way for our government to retain and attract foreign funds will be to increase interest rates. This will be a very challenging decision as long as our economy is in a recession. In spite of calls to ease interest rates in the short run, it will be difficult for the Fed to continue to support a policy of negative real rates if it needs to encourage foreign investment.

    At the risk of being redundant, I have also asked Louis James to give us his thoughts on current events. Here is what he has to say:

      Two cents (Canadian) from International Speculator Senior Editor Louis James:

      As I’m sure you can imagine, we are constantly discussing unfolding events around the world among ourselves here at Casey Research. No one can predict the future entirely, but we did predict the currency and confidence crisis (that’s redundant, I know) that is shaking the U.S. and global economies. We did not – obviously – predict the specific depth and duration of the Wall of Worry correction we’ve seen this year, but we have commented repeatedly on the reasons why this phase of the bull market is called the Wall of Worry phase. And we’ve reminded readers that there was a huge, multi-year slump in the middle of the great 1970s bull market for metals. So, the vicissitudes of the market have not been comfortable, even for us, but they have not been shocking either.

      But one thing has constantly surprised me: how can people be so complacent about what’s going on?

      Wall Street has to put on a brave face, of course. There’s a very funny picture online from a man who received an advertisement from AIG in the mail, asking him if he will have the protection he needs when disaster strikes. (It’s currently the third image down.) That’s got to be a “brave face” for the record books. But it’s not hard to see the panic beneath the surface – especially when even the politicians are saying there’s a problem.

      What I don’t see is panic on Main Street – yet – and that’s genuinely puzzling to me.

      Of course, Americans have a great deal of confidence in America, the victorious military, political, and economic superpower of the 20th century. I know it takes a lot to shake that confidence. But we’ve had one or two bank failures per month this year – that’s the sort of thing that is only supposed to happen in banana republics. And these are not just little old savings & loan shops. We’re talking big names like Morgan Stanley, Washington Mutual, Merrill Lynch, AIG and Freddie and Fannie – with de facto nationalization for the latter three.

      Nationalization. Isn’t that a third-world game? Why aren’t more people shaking in their boots?

      I think I may have found an explanation. Generations of boob-tube hypnotism have conditioned people to accept the wisdom of experts, and the experts all say everything will be fine soon. For an amusing musical version of this explanation, see:

      www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwzYtdA6y_U

      (Fair warning; this is techno music, not Tchaikovsky, but the criticism of relying on experts is a bull’s-eye on an important aspect of today’s zeitgeist.)

      This explanation may sound like trite pseudo-psychology, but I mean it. Boobus Americanus is simply not equipped to comprehend, let alone deal with the ugly reality looming in his near-term economic future. Like Pavlov’s dogs, generations of public schooling have trained the species to respond to leaders, not to think independently. And that’s why the correction of the economic distortions that have been building since the early 1970s will be of such historic proportions.

      But that won’t make things easier for us, while the Wall of Worry continues, especially since we want to profit, not just survive. This is one reason why we recommend our alert services to our subscribers who are serious players in this market. “As needed” alerts are the best way to do exactly that: profit from current volatility, not just survive until the Mania phase.

      Just last week, we published a Casey Investment Alert with ten “screaming buys” – eight of which are up sharply within a week. We didn’t know the opportunity for returns would materialize so quickly, but we did know those ten were oversold and looked ripe for a rebound. And there was no time to wait for the next monthly issue of the International Speculator.

      Food for thought.



    Options & Futures

    Last month, several attendees to our Chicago Options & Futures Intensive asked me if Casey Research would ever consider launching an Options Alert to complement The Casey Report. At the time, I responded that Doug, David, and I had discussed the possibility of launching such a service within six months but that we would only do so if we found a very experienced editor for this service.

    I now have the pleasure of announcing that Sally Limantour, a 30-year veteran floor trader on the Chicago Commodities Exchange, has decided to join our team and launch this new alert service for us. In addition to being a professional options and futures trader, Sally is teaching online intensive training classes for traders and is a talented newsletter writer. I have asked Sally to write a short note to introduce you to her world.

      A Ride to the Rescue

      As a futures trader and global investor, this past week goes down as one of the most interesting, volatile and game-changing ones I have ever experienced in my 30 years of trading. Huge intraday swings in all the markets were the norm, and the usual suspects rode to the rescue with massive bailouts and “free” doses of socialized medicine (transfusions for the ailing institutions).

      Volatility spiked to a six-year high as fear and uncertainty spooked the market. From my perch, it looks as though this volatility is here to stay for awhile. The fear index that traders watch, called the VIX, did rally, indicating a degree of fear, but this is still way below where it has traded during other times of crisis. This indicates a relentless sense of complacency. Maybe folks don’t believe it’s really happening or they still believe in Santa Claus. Then again, systemic risk has been “managed” for all these years and has created a powerful sense of security.

      I have been saying for months that not only will we have higher levels of volatility, it will be here to stay. These high levels of “vol” will create a new floor, which is something we need to get used to. No one knows what lies inside the cooked books and mountains of derivatives. And, between the push of toxic paper and the pull of external stimulus, the markets will be hopping like Mexican jumping beans.

      Markets abhor uncertainty, and we will be bouncing between that and Big Daddy’s helping hand for a long time. All of this may drive us crazy, but it does provide fantastic possibilities for the quick and nimble.


      Multiple Personalities

      Volatile markets allow me to embrace my Sybil and for that, I am grateful. Short-term trading, intermediate and long-term time horizons all have a place in my head. As the dislocations come home to roost (and we have not seen anything yet), this creates pockets of opportunities in all time frames.

      We can practice short-term trading, which is a lot like dancing. You need good music and a flexible partner. Markets with big intraday swings make good partners. We can also employ intermediate, or “swing trading.” This requires more analysis and the use of option strategies. It has good rhythm, but you take more time before you hit the floor.

      Long-term trading requires patience, sound strategies and a smart dose of leverage. Enough leverage to hang on for the big ride, and not too much to knock you out. There are a number of futures markets that are setting up for the long haul. This will be a beautiful, slow dance.


      Buck Broke Mountain

      This week, I dipped one toe into the bond futures by going short. It may be early, but that crazy, flight-to-quality rally beckoned me. This is a long-term play I plan to build, as the inflationary forces push bond yields higher.

      The dollar index is another short to consider at this time. It has had a decent corrective rally off the lows in July. But the world is not enrolled. Yesterday, China's newspaper, the People's Daily, said that the world was "threatened by a financial tsunami." In essence, the article said that countries needed to consider building a new financial and currency order that was not dependent on the United States and the dollar.

      Then we heard from Prince Al-Walid from Saudi Arabia. He declared that he will not be making any investments in the U.S. My friends, get used to this as the rhetoric will get loud.

      On the other side of the globe, Uncle Ben is revving up the engine on the helicopter. The Middle East, Asia, and other parts of the world are saying that they do not want to be paid by a printing press.

      The metals, energy, agricultural markets and the softs (cocoa, coffee, sugar and orange juice) are all going to be dynamic markets to trade and invest in. Supply/demand fundamentals are still strong in many of these commodities and there will be both long and short opportunities.

      Speaking of shorts, SEC Chairman Chris Cox came up this week with a new ban on “naked short selling.” A house of cards is falling down all around him and this is what he is focused on? Jonathon Weil, on Bloomberg News, had this to say about it: “Going after naked shorts is just ahead of investor-protection seminars for federal prison inmates.”

      In the weeks and months ahead, the door will fly open with more skeletons in the closet. Hank, Ben and the Merry Band will frantically keep trying to close it, which will provide dynamic moves in the market.

      We can profit in the short term from these endless games and position ourselves for the long-term trends. I look forward to sharing many ideas and opportunities with you in the months and years ahead.

      Warm Regards,
      Sally Limantour

    Especially in these tumultuous times, options and futures provide unique investment opportunities to profit from almost any major trend and to tailor investments to literally any risk/reward strategy. The Casey option alert will be a unique service that will combine both educational and trading advice. We anticipate launching this service during the second half of October and will keep you informed as soon as details are finalized.


    And from the Desk of Doug Hornig…

      As my Canadian colleagues would say: Such a week, eh?

      Bailouts, bank failures, government takeovers, money market funds “breaking the buck,” enormous price swings in equities, you name it, we got it right here, folks. Wall Street apparently believes that the Fed injecting yet more hundreds of billions into a crumbling system is a good thing. It would now seem that Washington is hell-bent on re-liquefying the entire world. Talk about chutzpah!

      Through all the sturm und drang, the media focus has been, as usual, on the wrong thing, i.e., the question of what the effect of this or that particular government move is likely to be. Hello. Is no one able to spell the word s-o-c-i-a-l-i-s-m anymore? Apparently not, except for a few Internet wags who have begun referring to Comrade Ben and Comrade Hank.

      But I’ve had the most delightful time razzing my Republican buddies, who in the past have always referred to Democrats as the “socialist party.” Plenty of facial egg for them.

      Full disclosure: I’m a diehard Ron Paul guy (though I realize our day will never come). I follow mainstream politics primarily for its entertainment value. And unlike many people I know, political affiliation has no bearing on my choice of friends. As a consequence, my email box fills up with messages from across the political spectrum, some of it rather, well, quirky.

      This one, from a committed Republican, popped up yesterday. Citing shadowy “insider info from the DNC,” my correspondent stated that, “On or about October 5th, Biden will excuse himself from the ticket, citing health problems, and he will be replaced by Hillary.”

      Hmmm. Who knows, in this silly season, what is or isn’t true. But this, which at first appears outlandish, makes an awful lot of political sense. In one fell swoop, it turns Sarah Palin into a comparative ninny and lures back into the fold a large segment of those women who have been defecting to the GOP side. It probably morphs a faltering campaign back into the sure winner it was first thought to be.

      The only part that doesn’t ring true is the date, which is after the vice presidential debate. Why would they wait, rather than let Hil have at Sarah, womano-a-womano? Now that’s entertainment...

    Olivier again for the closing remarks.


    Panama

    At Casey Research, we do not usually announce conferences until we have picked a destination, a topic, and a date. Last month in Chicago, we announced to attendees that we were planning a conference in Panama in November and that details would come in September. Unfortunately, it turned out that we could not finalize all of the arrangements to our satisfaction in order to make it happen for this date, and we will have to delay this event until after the turn of the year. We thank you for your patience and will let you know as soon as we have secured a venue and planned the program. Stay tuned…


    TV?

    Many of you have had the opportunity to hear Bud Conrad at our conferences, but have you ever seen him on TV? As one might expect, with the developing crisis, the mainstream media are beginning to pay attention to what the Casey Research contrarians have to say. In the past several weeks, it seems that the opinions of Doug Casey, David Galland, Terry Coxon, and Bud Conrad have been heavily sought by Fox Business, CNBC, the Boston Globe, and Dow Jones Newswire (WSJ), to name a few. In case you have missed Bud’s latest appearance on CNBC, I have included the link below.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=852271347&play=1

    Before I leave you to take my second son, a high school senior, for a seven-hour drive to New Jersey to visit Princeton University, I wanted to continue David’s tradition and let you enjoy a very appropriate song for these trying times.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeo0_3gN190

    While it has been a tall order to fill in for David, he will fortunately be back at the helm next week.

    Thank you for being our subscribers. It truly is a pleasure to work for such a fine group of sophisticated investors. I look forward to the opportunity to meet many more of you during future conferences or travels to cities where Casey Phyles get together.

    oliviersig-1

    Olivier Garret
    CEO
    Casey Research




    Posted 09-22-2008 3:43 PM by David Galland