Recession or Not? Look at the Oscars!

Shannara Johnson — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 19:30:00 GMT

Aside from the fact that the 80^th Academy Awards show will take its place in history as one of the most boring Oscar shows ever, I noticed another thing about it: all of the Best Picture nominees seemed exceptionally depressing and moody.

· No Country for Old Men, the winner, was described in reviews as “dark and haunting masterpiece.”

· There Will Be Blood, a movie about an evil and ruthless oil man; a Washington Post reviewer called it “a searing, apocalyptic and finally breathtaking drama.”

· Michael Clayton has a theme similar to Erin Brockovich, but with a much greater air of tragedy; George Clooney’s character looks grim and troubled throughout the movie.

· Atonement, the story of a woman seeking forgiveness for having ruined a teenage friend’s life.

· Juno, a drama about the struggles of a pregnant teenager.

You may ask what that could possibly have to do with a recession. In a word: everything.

As our resident investment guru Doug Casey, by nature a very observant man, notes in the just published March edition of the International Speculator, “A society’s mood is obviously reflected in its art, literature and movies…”

“I’m told hemlines are coming down,” he writes. “There definitely seems to be a correlation between skirt lengths and stock prices. Skirts were short during the ‘20s, the ‘60s, and in recent years – all times of boom. They were long from the ‘30s through the ‘50s, and then again in the ‘70s – times which ranged from grim to uncertain.”

(By the way, if you haven’t read the International Speculator yet, I strongly recommend you start right now. Check it out. < http://www.caseyresearch.com/learnMore.php?pubId=1>)

Back to the topic at hand: “grim to uncertain” sounds just about right to describe the situation in the U.S. these days… with millions of layoffs in an ever-growing sleuth of industries across the country, with oil at $102 at last count and food prices steadily climbing, and with a potential trip to the poorhouse for many of the holders of another 2 million ARMs due to reset this year. And let’s not forget the Forever War in Iraq and the very real possibility of a future war with Iran.

But do movies really reflect that mood?

Just for fun, I checked the Oscar nominees of March 2001, a time before the proverbial *** had started to hit the fan. The winner was Gladiator with Russell Crowe. The other nominees for Best Picture were: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, a martial arts/fantasy film; the sensual movie Chocolat; the aforementioned Erin Brockovich; and Traffic, a thriller about the drug trade. Gloom factor: 0 in 5.

It seems that in the first years after 9/11, the mood was still elevated, despite the WTC attacks. In 2002 A Beautiful Mind – a movie about a brilliant but bipolar scientist – won Best Picture. The other nominated movies were Gosford Park, a British whodunit film; In the Bedroom, a father killing his son’s killer in revenge; Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring; and Moulin Rouge, a bohemian musical. Gloom factor: 1-2 in 5.

In 2003 the big winner was the spirited musical Chicago, with co-nominees Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers; The Hours, a drama about three women of different generations; Gangs of New York and Polanski’s The Pianist. Gloom factor: 1-2 in 5.

2004 saw Lord of the Rings: Return of the King awarded with the Oscar. The other nominees were Seabiscuit (the story of a famous race horse), Lost in Translation (an awkward comedy with Bill Murray), Master and Commander (a historical naval flick) and Clint Eastwood’s crime thriller Mystic River. Gloom factor: 0 in 4.

Even though exit polls at the 2004 primaries showed that concerns about the economy took the top priority with voters, median home prices were up 9.1% from the year before, mortgage rates hit several record lows and all in all, things seemed a-OK.

The first noticeable change occurred in 2005, when Million Dollar Baby won, a boxing movie with tragic ending. However, the contenders were still of the more light-hearted kind: Aviator (the early years of Howard Hughes), Finding Neverland (the story of J.M. Barrie and how he came to write “Peter Pan”) and Sideways (a road trip comedy for wine tasters). Gloom factor: 1 in 4.

In 2006, Brokeback Mountain, a tragic story of two gay lovers, won the Oscar. The runner-ups were: Good Night and Good Luck (about the McCarthy era), Munich (the 1972 murders of 11 Israeli athletes at the Olympics), Capote and Crash (a movie about bigotry and racial stereotypes). Gloom factor: 2-3 in 4.

In 2007, The Departed won. The other nominees: Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. Gloom factor: 3 in 5.

This year, as mentioned above, the gloom factor is 5 in 5. Can the mood get any lower? I’m pretty sure it can… and probably will.

The Opinionator : society

Recession or Not? Look at the Oscars!