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There is some debate about whether the recession is over. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a non-governmental organization made up of economists, has a committee that meets and decides after the fact when recessions begin and when they end. Martin Feldstein, the former president of the...
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.........But First, A Word From Our Sponsor.......... Chuck Butler Will Help You Create Your Own "Dollar Oasis" in Just One Weekend This February 25 to 27, Chuck Butler is partnering up with The Sovereign Society to hold an intensive, 2-1/2-day currency boot camp in Scottsdale, Arizona. Why...
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The Statistical Recovery has Arrived This Time Is Different A Crisis of Confidence Greeks Bearing Gifts Biotech, Conversations and Babies "Our immersion in the details of crises that have arisen over the past eight centuries and in data on them has led us to conclude that the most commonly repeated...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 4Q GDP to Rise - But by How Much? Retail Sales - Worst Drop on Record in 2009 Uncertainty and the Slow Recovery Political Implications & How to Move Forward Conclusions: Expect the Economy to Disappoint P.S. Pelosi & Reid Plot Secret Plan for ObamaCare Introduction All eyes will...
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Let me welcome you to a new year of Outside the Box. I doubt we will have trouble finding interesting commentary this year, as there are many things that could happen that demand our attention. We start with a short column by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the London Telegraph giving us a quick run down...
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.........But First, A Word From Our Sponsor.......... How to Build Your Own Profit Oasis in Just One "Weekend" This February 25 to 27, Chuck Butler is partnering up with The Sovereign Society to hold an intensive, 2-1/2-day currency boot camp in Scottsdale, Arizona. Why are we doing this? Simple...
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It's All About Deleveraging Commercial Woes The Lights Of Myanmar A Lively 2010 and Buying Stocks This is the season when pundits feel compelled to make annual forecasts. I will make mine, as I traditionally do, in the first letter of January. But already we have seen a wide range of forecasted outcomes...
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Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics The Problem of Seasonal Adjustments The Job Creation Engine A Double-Dip Recession? Dad Gets a Lively Lesson We are clearly starting to get some better data points here and there. But as I pointed out this summer, it is going...
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If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes? Last Business Standing Stimulus, What Stimulus? The Reality of Unemployment Let the Good Times Roll The Quick Double-Dip Scenario Phoenix, New York, and Thoughts on the Internet No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable...
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"Why" many ask, "is the stock market going up when the bond market is telling us the recovery will be tepid? Isn't there a disconnect?" And the answer is that there is, and this week good friend and fishing buddy Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame discusses that very topic with his usual...
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IN THIS ISSUE: Overview of Recent US Economic Trends Snapshot of the Latest Economic Data Fed's "Beige Book" Sees Modest Improvement Unemployment: The 800-Pound Gorilla in the Room Conclusions - Storm Clouds on the Horizon Eyes around the world are intently focused on this Thursday's...
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What We See And What We Don't See The Statistical Recovery A Double-Dip Recession? Welcome to the New Normal Birthdays, New Orleans, and then the Road Trip from Hell Unemployment is high and rising. But if the recession is over, won't employment start to rise? The quick answer is no. We look...
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IN THIS ISSUE: The Economy - More Signs of Recovery Is the Recession & Credit Crisis Over? Obama Adds $2 Trillion to Debt Forecast Economic Assumptions Still Too Optimistic What in the World Are They Thinking? Do They Want Control Even If It Ruins The Economy? Introduction In my June 16 E-Letter...
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The Statistical Recovery, Part Three Capacity Utilization Set to Rise A Real Estate Green Shoot? The Deleveraging Society Some Thoughts on Secular Bear Markets Weddings and Ten Years of Thoughts From the Frontline This week we further explore why this recovery will be a Statistical Recovery, or one that...
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The Statistical Recovery, Part Two A Recovery Statisticians Can Love A Few Thoughts on the Housing Market Some Thoughts from Maine Tulsa, Birthdays, Weddings, and Paul McCartney A few weeks ago I first used the term "statistical recovery" to describe the nature of today's economic environment...