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Yesterday’s posted interview with David Malpass brings into sharp focus a key aspect of the US economic recovery that far too few investors are tuned into. Specifically, the underappreciated dynamic that second, third, and lower tier companies (the backbone of employment growth in the US) may not...
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Now that the S&P 500 has hit my full year target of 1050 (made last December 30 as published in the Wall Street Journal’s “MarketBeat” blog ) - with 3 months still left to go, I might note, cyclical bulls (like me) who have turned increasingly more cautious over the past two months...
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For the past two months, I have made the argument that above consensus macro economic data would lead to above consensus earnings results and that investors would see the evidence of this as 2Q09 earnings season got underway. Based on the reports issued thus far, this argument has won the day as above...
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As the alternate universe of derivatives continues their great detoxification unwind, financial assets struggle to comprehend a world in transition to a new financial and economic order. In the process, fixed income markets remain frozen while equity markets lurch from one end of the prospective economic...
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It should be fairly evident by now that heavy redemptions at hedge funds over the past two months contributed significantly to the recent pounding in the one area where markets are liquid – stocks. Moreover, the deleveraging process continues to impact many hedgies as available capital (for leveraged...
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In his excellent book, “When Markets Collide”, PIMCO chief Mohammed El-Erian writes about the journey and the destination that the global economy and markets are undergoing and puts in context and helps clarifies much of the current economic and financial chaos. In it, Mr. El-Erian describes...
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Today's earnings report from Hewlett-Packard raises the question posed in this blog postings' title. To help shed some light on the subject, consider the corporate results produced thus far re 3Q08. Compiled each week from data published in the Wall Street Journal (and produced for subscribers...
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Whatever the fundamental rationale may be – November 15th and hedge fund redemptions; capital gains sales in anticipation of tax increases next year; fears of a global recession; concerns re FAS 140 and QSPEs (more on this one in a future posting); S&P 500 earnings closer to $50 with a 10 or...
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My conversation with Standard and Poors' Equity Research Chief Investment Strategist includes how stocks tend to perform when one party controls government, fourth quarter of an election year stock performance, first year of a new administration and stock performance, and the earnings estimate split...
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As delightful as the rally has been, a key super short-term technical indicator, Slow Stochastics, is registering an overbought reading (above 80) and a cause for a pause. As the accompanying chart* shows, while the near-term indicators, Momentum and MACD, are in fine shape (especially MACD) and supportive...
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The folks over at National Public Radio noticed my blog posting of yesterday re the credit markets, Treasury yields, LIBOR, and the TED spread and did an interview with me on the topic, which you can listen to by clicking on the following link. To listen to the 20 minute interview, click here . Note...
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My conversation with the Director of Research for Investment Management Associates and author of "Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-bound Markets" includes the rationale why equities are in a range bound market, the "active value investing" approach to stock selection...
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It is fascinating to listen to all the pundits wonder just when Senator Clinton will drop out of the race. What amazes me is how they accept at face value her statement that she will stay in the race “until we have a nominee”. To most, that means whenever either candidate reaches 2026 delegates...
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In my interview with the Director of Global Equity Products for Jefferies & Co. we explored his shallow recession call, fairly strong operating earnings outlook, sectors (and industries within) that look attractive and ones to avoid, and the influence and importance of hedge funds. The length of...
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The economic debate seems to have settled into which letter best fits the future trend of the US economy: V, U, L, or W? The most bullish group, which includes many in the Goldilocks-redux crew, believe in the down (maybe strong) then up US economic scenario. V for victory, perhaps. Then there is the...