The stock market rally since early March appears to have three distinct phases to it. The first phase was the backing off from the economic abyss. The second phase was a bounce to fair value normalcy. The third phase (the one we are in now) is what I would call the return to business as usual phase ...
While it is encouraging that equities have rallied to the point where many 200 day moving averages are either flat or nearly so and nearly all sectors, styles, regions, and countries are above their 50 day moving average, not to mention the fact that many 50 day MAs have an upward slope, there are reasons...
Let me start by saying that on many levels, I agree with Paul Krugman. I read his blog regularly and find his work to be of significant value. I also share many of his political views and leanings. But when he makes the market efficiency argument, he has entered a space where he is wholly unqualified...
Billionaires are now Slumdog Millionaires because: A. The credit markets remain frozen B. The US economy is falling off the cliff C. Corporate earnings are headed substantially lower (<$50 S&P 500 operating earnings) D. The socialist programs of the Obama administration threaten capitalism as...
As the alternate universe of derivatives continues their great detoxification unwind, financial assets struggle to comprehend a world in transition to a new financial and economic order. In the process, fixed income markets remain frozen while equity markets lurch from one end of the prospective economic...
It should be fairly evident by now that heavy redemptions at hedge funds over the past two months contributed significantly to the recent pounding in the one area where markets are liquid – stocks. Moreover, the deleveraging process continues to impact many hedgies as available capital (for leveraged...
Yesterday’s big stock market surge has some serious near term technical analysis legs under it. And the prospect of an attempt to rise to the S&P 500’s 50 moving average (just under 1100) looks achievable. Yet, there are also three non technical analysis reasons supporting a sustained...
Warren Buffett may have been way too premature when he declared in May of this year that the panic phase of the credit crisis was over. Recent developments suggest, however, that there are good reasons to conclude that Mr. Buffett's prediction is close at hand. Evidence for this thinking can be found...
commentary from this week’s “Sectors and Styles Strategy Report”*: Sunday evening’s US Treasury and Fed actions may seem bold to some. I beg to differ. Here are a few thoughts for your consideration: A recent report from respected consultancy Bridgewater Associates upped the ante...
There is little doubt that many counterbalancing forces are at work in today’s equity markets. The bulls argue that March 17 (“Inflection Day” – see prior blog postings) was the turning point for the longer-term bull market correction that began in earnest last October. The worst...