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In my latest interview with the Chief Investment Strategist for Legg Mason Capital Management, we discussed a bottom-up view of the markets, the sustainability of the US economic recovery, and key segments of his new book: "Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition", including concepts...
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My interview with the CEO and Chief Economist of STP Advisory Services includes her libertarian perspectives on the virtuous circle, the risks in the Fed's exit strategy, key consequences of financial innovation, and the next global financial crisis: public debt . Dr. Trimbath is also the author...
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Back on August 3rd subscribers to my weekly newsletter - Sectors and Styles Strategy Report - read the following: "China may become the bigger fly in the bullish ointment. Unlike the US, China has spent all of its stimulus package money not on consumer demand related areas (where it is most needed...
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In my second interview with the Chief Economist at Strategas Research Partners we explore the probabilities of multiple economic Ws, the importance of monitoring interest rate sensitive industries, capex for signs of economic stability, and the multiplier effect of the monetary and fiscal stimulus, and...
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“If we don’t act swiftly and boldly, we could see a much deeper economic downturn that could lead to double-digit unemployment.” President-elect Barack Obama January 3, 2009 There is a major economic battle underway pitting the resurgent Keynesian forces of President-elect Franklin...
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In his excellent book, “When Markets Collide”, PIMCO chief Mohammed El-Erian writes about the journey and the destination that the global economy and markets are undergoing and puts in context and helps clarifies much of the current economic and financial chaos. In it, Mr. El-Erian describes...
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commentary from this week's "Sector and Styles Strategy Report*: Back on February 11th I wrote a report titled “What are the Sell Side Analysts Smoking?” The commentary and report focused on the excessively optimistic outlook earnings forecasts for 2008 by bottom up analysts. Excessively...
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It hardly instills deep confidence in our government officials when, after nearly a year, its prime modus operandi is to react to the latest financial crisis with yet another 11th hour solution. This is one of the longer term implications of the bailout plan for Fannie and Freddie. For all the near term...
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This morning’s testimony before Congress affords US Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke yet another opportunity to allay the fears of all parties interested in the health and wellbeing of the world’s economies and markets. Unfortunately, however, what is likely to be heard...
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My interview with the Managing Director and Chief Economist for Deutsche Bank Securities includes the state of the global economy, prospects for stagflation in the US, the expanded role of the Fed, and the US consumer. The length of the interview is 13 minutes 21 seconds. Click here to play this audio...
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Someone help me out with this one. If, as the true believers in the purity of market forces say, the price of oil is a function of supply and demand AND considering the fact the US economy consumes more oil than any other country in the world, then how does one explain the accompanying chart from today’s...
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Commentary from this week’s Sectors and Styles Strategy Report: I found today’s Wall Street Journal story (“Pinched Consumers Scramble for Cash”) to warrant its most viewed story of the day. To quote: “As consumers max out their credit lines and banks clamp down on lending...
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The economic debate seems to have settled into which letter best fits the future trend of the US economy: V, U, L, or W? The most bullish group, which includes many in the Goldilocks-redux crew, believe in the down (maybe strong) then up US economic scenario. V for victory, perhaps. Then there is the...
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In my comprehensive interview, the Chief Economist with Strategas shares his thoughts and insights on a long and shallow US economic downturn, the US consumer - credit, spending, and savings, and residential and non residential construction and lending. The length of the interview is 17 minutes 52 seconds...
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In the past weeks, several clear signs have emerged signaling that investors are shifting their focus away from the credit crisis and toward the real economy and traditional investment analysis. The first and most obvious sign is the earnings reports. The next two are less obvious, but are no less important...