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There's a Slow Train Coming A Negative 2% GDP in the Third Quarter? Small Business Still Has Issues Italy, Paris, Vancouver, and San Francisco And a Forbes Cruise to Mexico Sometimes I feel so low-down and disgusted Can't help but wonder what's happenin' to my companions, Are they lost...
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O Canada The Threat to Muddle Through Back to 1971 The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports An Optimistic New Venture, San Diego, and New York If the Chinese allowed the renminbi to rise, would that make the USA better off? That is the contention of a cabal of critics...
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Things That Go Bump in the Night A Trillion Dollars as Far as the Eye Can See The Global Recession Gets Worse Where Will the Money Come From? The Paradox of Deficits Naples, London, and Eastern Europe From ghoulies and ghosties And long-leggedy beasties And things that go bump in the night, Good Lord...
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Earnings and Mr. Bear Earnings Before Bad Stuff How Ugly Can it Get? A Lean Mean Reversion Machine Some Thoughts on Energy Oregon, Maine and a Wedding "The stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run." - Benjamin Graham The voting part of the equation...
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Introduction This week we look at the links between the US trade deficit, the low savings rate in the US, home prices, and interest rates, all in an effort to answer the question: "Do trade deficits matter?" I think I will offer a few practical, if simple, insights to the matter. At the end...
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Introduction This week we look into my worry closet and ponder whether the Dubai port debacle is a one-off thing or does it signal a rise in protectionism. The recent polls suggest I will upset about 90% of you, but I look at the deal from the very negative economic impact it could have on this country...
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Introduction "I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand now, it is more likely than not that it will be a financial crisis rather than a policy foresight that will force change." - Paul Volker How long can the United States...
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Introduction This week we finish with our series on the US trade deficit. When will we see a real problem? What are the likely results from a balancing of global trade? Where are the investment opportunities, and where are the pitfalls? It should make for an interesting conclusion and hopefully an interesting...
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Introduction We have been looking at the US trade deficit and the global trade imbalance for the past two weeks. It is currently an unsustainable trend, and thus will stop at some point. The questions are when and how? We will conclude this series today, looking at several ways the trade deficit could...
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Introduction Last week we looked at my 2005 Forecast. This week, we ponder the far more interesting question of where I could (or will be!) be wrong and why and what would be the consequences. This week's topic came about as I was talking on Tuesday with Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management...
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Introduction Once again it's time for me to demonstrate the foolhardy part of my nature by putting to electronic pen my forecast for 2005. I spend more research time on this one letter than on any four or five combined, simply reading hundreds of pages of research, looking at mountains of data all...
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Introduction From ghoulies and ghosties And long-leggedy beasties And things that go bump in the night, Good Lord, deliver us! --Old Scottish Prayer Coming back from Canada this morning, where the Canadian dollar is on a breath-taking rise, and reading several lengthy (and very conflicting) reports on...
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Premise #3: A Falling Dollar In March of 2002, I wrote an e-letter entitled "King Dollar and the Guillotine," which as the title suggests was a quite negative view of the future prospects for the dollar. Two weeks earlier, I had written a bullish letter on gold, having been bearish (really...