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Harry Dent gave a speech I listened to a while back, and I got him to transcribe it for this week's Outside the Box. One thing about Harry is, you are never left wondering what he thinks about a topic. He sees inevitable demography-caused deflation in our future and makes some very intriguing arguments...
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In This Issue: An Improving Economy But Where Are the Jobs? Time for the Fed to Declare Victory and Go Home Home, Fed Friday, and Tokyo I am on yet another plane and writing, and I’ll finish this letter in Phoenix. As I start, I am not sure of a theme for this week’s letter, so (with a tip...
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The Fed Adds a Third Mandate A Rational Voice in Dallas Thinking the Unthinkable The Threat of the Irish Has China Found a Miracle Business Cycle? LA, Winnipeg, Las Vegas, and Thailand Last week, in the first part of my annual forecast, I suggested that 2011 would be better than Muddle Through, with...
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Pushing on a String Let's Shift the Focus An Invitation to an Inflation Party Ten Years and Counting This week the Fed altered their end-of-meeting statement by just a few words, but those words have a lot of meaning. It seems they are paving the way to a new round of quantitative easing (QE2), if...
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The Case for a Fed Rate Hike Employment Is Turning the Corner The Headwinds of Money Supply Who Stole the Inflation? The Fed Is On Hold An Inverted Yield Curve? LA, Vancouver, San Francisco, and a First Often Wrong, Seldom in Doubt Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped...
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The Velocity of Money Our Little Island World GDP = (P) x (T) P=MV A Slowdown in Velocity Dallas and Thoughts on the Economy This week we do some review on a very important topic, the velocity of money. If we don’t understand the basics, it is hard to make sense of the hash that our world economy...
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A Bubble in Search of a Pin Unemployment Numbers: A Mixed Bag A Bubble in Search of a Pin And Speaking of Bubbles Help in Europe, California, and Tampa, and Becoming our Parents Should Greenspan and Bernanke have seen the bubble in housing and other assets and acted, or should we accept their defense...
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I have been writing for a very long time about the coming debacle that the commercial real estate problem is going to be. This week's Outside the Box is an interview that my good friend David Galland did with Andy Miller, a man on the inside of the coming commercial real estate crisis. I thought...
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When the Fed Stops the Music Who Wants the Old Maid? It's the Deleveraging, Stupid! London, Monaco, and Zurich Last week we delved into the uncertainties that face us and that make forecasting for 2010 problematical. Will the government actually increase taxes as much as they say, with unemployment...
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2010: A Year of Uncertainty "Rocking Even Me" Prisoners of Our Preconceptions The Statistical Recovery The Great Experiment Whither the Fed? London, Monte Carlo, Zurich, and Stocks "Lying here, during all this time after my own small fall, it has become my conviction that things mean pretty...
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Where the Wild Things Are It Is Not Just Japan The Euro-Yen Cross and the Dollar Carry Trade New York, London, and Switzerland From ghoulies and ghosties And long-leggedy beasties And things that go bump in the night, Good Lord, deliver us! --Old Scottish Prayer Where the Wild Things Are is a beloved...
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Catching Argentinian Disease? The Ascent of Money The Independence of the Fed Threatened A Few Quick Thoughts on the Dollar, GDP, and the Recession Uruguay, Philadelphia, Orlando, and then... I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
10-30-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Recession, Inflation, GDP, Dollar, Deficit, Niall Ferguson, Brazil, Hyperinflation, Argentina, The Ascent of Money
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I look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner...
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MV=PQ Financial Innovation: The Round Trip 2010-11: Back to the Future Recession The Fed at the Crossroads How Did We Get It So Wrong? The Trend Is Not Your Friend When It Ends Orlando, Naples, Cleveland, and Grandkids This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
04-24-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Recession, Gold, Employment, Inflation, GDP, Consumer Spending, Velocity of Money, Deficit, Trend, MV=PQ, Great Experiment
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It is important to understand the thinking of those who are in fact making the decisions at the Fed and Treasury. In today's Outside the Box, Paul McCulley, Managing Director at PIMCO, gives us some insight into the thinking that is driving the massive stimulus and bailout programs. Whether or not...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-30-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Japan, GDP, Paul McCulley, David Kotok, Pimco, FDIC, European Banks, Shadow Banking System, Tim Geithner, Public-Private Investment Program