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Pushing on a String Let's Shift the Focus An Invitation to an Inflation Party Ten Years and Counting This week the Fed altered their end-of-meeting statement by just a few words, but those words have a lot of meaning. It seems they are paving the way to a new round of quantitative easing (QE2), if...
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The Case for a Fed Rate Hike Employment Is Turning the Corner The Headwinds of Money Supply Who Stole the Inflation? The Fed Is On Hold An Inverted Yield Curve? LA, Vancouver, San Francisco, and a First Often Wrong, Seldom in Doubt Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped...
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2010: A Year of Uncertainty "Rocking Even Me" Prisoners of Our Preconceptions The Statistical Recovery The Great Experiment Whither the Fed? London, Monte Carlo, Zurich, and Stocks "Lying here, during all this time after my own small fall, it has become my conviction that things mean pretty...
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Where the Wild Things Are It Is Not Just Japan The Euro-Yen Cross and the Dollar Carry Trade New York, London, and Switzerland From ghoulies and ghosties And long-leggedy beasties And things that go bump in the night, Good Lord, deliver us! --Old Scottish Prayer Where the Wild Things Are is a beloved...
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Catching Argentinian Disease? The Ascent of Money The Independence of the Fed Threatened A Few Quick Thoughts on the Dollar, GDP, and the Recession Uruguay, Philadelphia, Orlando, and then... I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
10-30-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Recession, Inflation, GDP, Dollar, Deficit, Niall Ferguson, Brazil, Hyperinflation, Argentina, The Ascent of Money
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MV=PQ Financial Innovation: The Round Trip 2010-11: Back to the Future Recession The Fed at the Crossroads How Did We Get It So Wrong? The Trend Is Not Your Friend When It Ends Orlando, Naples, Cleveland, and Grandkids This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
04-24-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Recession, Gold, Employment, Inflation, GDP, Consumer Spending, Velocity of Money, Deficit, Trend, MV=PQ, Great Experiment
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I Meant to Do That The Lights of Myanmar Some Good News for Borrowers Madoff May Give Us a Sell-Off Conversations with John Mauldin New Orleans, La Jolla, and Merry Christmas The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
12-19-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Myanmar, Interest Rate, Ben Bernanke, Inflation, Credit, International Living, Knightsbridge, LIBOR, Bernie Madoff, FOMC, Free Burma Rangers
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I mentioned in last Saturday's letter a report by Louis Gave of GaveKal fame on whether inflation may be waning and its importance. Louis gave me permission to use it as this week's Outside the Box. It is typical of the thoughtful analytical work they do. Louis and his partners and associates...
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This week's Outside the Box will challenge a few of your base assumptions. Paul McCulley, the managing director at PIMCO, offers us a kind word for inflation and the reasons that the Fed will be on hold for a lot longer than the markets currently think. And part of that is to avoid a real recession...
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Retail Sales Take a Dive Accounting for Inflation The Fed at the Crossroads Sell in May and Go Away South Africa, Flowers, and On the Road Is the economy poised for a recovery, as the stock market seems to expect? Or are we in for another few more quarters of recession and/or slow growth? In this week's...
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This week in Outside the Box we take up a topic that should be on the top of the agenda of every regulatory authority, executives at financial services firms of all types, and average investors: How do we fix the credit markets to make sure we do not have such a crisis again? Good friend Michael Lewitt...
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The BS from the BLS Help Me, Obi-John A New Program for All Investors 2,500,000 "Lost Jobs" and Counting Taking a Long-Term Perspective Leverage in Reverse Gear What's That Hissing Sound? A Response from Tiffani The official number for employment suggested a loss of 63,000 jobs. But could...
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How Do You Spell Stagflation? Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation? The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame...
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Introduction We are in a world far different than the one I learned about in economic text books. As I have written, the shadow banking system of hedge funds and CDOs, CLOs, PIPES, etc. have created a new financing economic reality far different than the traditional banking system was just 20 years ago...
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The Return of Muddle Through The dollar reaches new lows. The housing market shows no sign of a bottom. Oil almost touches $84 before backing off. Interest rates go up after the Fed cuts. So naturally the stock market keeps climbing. But then, consumer spending came in strong, employment looks like it...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
09-28-2007
Filed under:
Filed under: John Mauldin, The Dollar, The Fed, China, Recession, Inflation, GDP, Chinese Yuan, Euro, Housing Bubble, Credit Crisis, Muddle Through