-
It is indeed a very interesting time in which to live, especially watching the financial markets. The disconnect among authorities, regulators, companies and investors is almost too much to comprehend. There are no precedents for the turmoil we are in. This week we read an essay by a name familiar to...
-
Introduction We are in a world far different than the one I learned about in economic text books. As I have written, the shadow banking system of hedge funds and CDOs, CLOs, PIPES, etc. have created a new financing economic reality far different than the traditional banking system was just 20 years ago...
-
Sea Change at the Fed "Of his bones are coral made: Those are pearls that were his eyes: Nothing of him that doth fade, But doth suffer a sea change Into something rich and strange" (The Tempest - Shakespeare) The term "sea change" has come to mean a profound transformation ever since...
-
Market Mayhem & Credit Fears - What's Next? IN THIS ISSUE: 1. The Economy - The News Is Not All Bad 2. Consumer Spending Remains Firm For Now 3. Housing & Subprime - More Bad News 4. Should The Government Come To The Rescue? 5. The Fed Needs To Act On September 18 6. BCA's Latest Analysis...
-
Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? The Shocker in the Employment Numbers Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? Will A Cut Make Any Difference? How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy Home Again, Home Again The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data...
-
Stock Prices Plunge In The Perfect Storm IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Stocks Make New Record Highs, Then Plummet 2. Forget The Cheese, Just Let Me Out Of The Trap! 3. Unwinding The "Yen Carry Trade" 4. Fed & Central Banks To The Rescue 5. So What Next? - BCA's Latest Analysis 6. Conclusions -...
-
The Mortgage Pig in the Python Inflation is Baked into the CPI Numbers The Mortgage Pig in the Python Housing Starts Look to Stop A Few Thoughts on the Recent Credit Crisis Half of All Hedge Funds Gone? Golf, Weddings, and Europe With the economy increasingly looking like it will slow down materially...
-
On The Economy, Stocks & Protectionism IN THIS ISSUE: 1. US Economy Improved In The 2Q 2. BCA's Latest Thinking On The Economy 3. The Bull Market In Stocks Continues, Sort Of 4. Angelina Jolie Stock Index - What's Next? 5. Fed Holds Steady Again, Lowers Inflation Concern 6. Protectionism...
-
Introduction This week we look at the yen carry trade, delve deeper into the mortgage lending world, and see if we can find a possible connection between them and the economy in general through something called complexity theory. As I have written for many months, I think the subprime mortgage problems...
-
Introduction With each new slice of economic data the past few weeks, the bond market decided that the economy was getting softer and the potential for the Fed to start cutting rates was growing. Rates have been drifting down for the past few weeks. And then came today's unemployment numbers. The...
-
Introduction Last Friday, I wrote about That Stubborn Yield Curve in my Thoughts from the Frontline letter. In it, I quoted a few paragraphs by Pimco's Paul McCulley, but upon reflection, I feel that his whole letter is worthy of taking a look at more in-depth. Paul writes a monthly commentary, the...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
10-30-2006
Filed under:
Filed under: Housing, The Fed, GDP, Yield Curve, John Mauldin, Paul McCulley, Economic Forecast, Leverage, Inverted Yield Curve, Fed Funds Rate, Time-Varying
-
Introduction "Central Bankers of the World, Unite!" That at least seems to be the theme from the central banker's playbook. The US Federal Reserve, The European Central Bank and now even the Bank of Japan all seem to be in a mood to tighten the global money supply. What does this mean?...
-
Introduction This week we will look at a few very interesting items that did not make it into last week's forecast, as that letter was already overly long. Bernanke's arrival, the importance of the housing market to the economy, the length of the recent rally and a note from good friend James...
-
Introduction Once again it's time for me to demonstrate the foolhardy part of my nature by putting to electronic pen my forecast for 2006. I spend more research time on this one letter than on any four or five combined, simply reading hundreds of pages of research, looking at mountains of data all...
-
Introduction What is the relationship between housing prices and stock market forecasting? What will happen if the housing market begins to falter? Exactly what did Greenspan say about housing at Jackson Hole? We explore these topics and a whole lot more and hopefully we can tie them all together by...