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So, here we are. More than two years into what started out as a credit crisis, one plus year after the Lehman collapse and a question that pertains to the one of the central workings of the equities market cannot be answered. At last evening's Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation...
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Always good to check in with the Wall Street veteran and Chief Market Technical Analyst for Miller + Tabak, who stills sees an absence of public and traditional institutional investor participation in the equity markets, no trend divergences to signal a major market decline ahead, recognition that a...
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In case you hadn't noticed, there’s a big head and shoulders debate brewing. A bona fide bulls versus bear story. One side (the bulls) sees the stock market world from a decidedly more optimistic perspective with the potential of an upside breakout and a stock market run to new recovery highs...
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Time flies when you’re having fun. For it was a mere 9 ½ weeks ago stocks were as desirable as a hug and a kiss from a Mexican lover, a point President Obama made note of just a few days ago re he and Hillary. For the bulls, these 9 ½ weeks were like the movie of same name –...
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For many, today’s date has a special social significance. For prudent investors, however, today is a day that this year marks a point of caution – unless you buy into one of two arguments being passed about: stocks warrant a higher than average P/E or stocks have made their lows as certain...
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On June 25th I will have the privilege of conducting a webcast series event for the Market Technicians Association on an aspect of ETFs that gets far too little recognition – market signals with ETFs. The webcast will describe how EVERY investor is now empowered to monitor market activity via ETFs...
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While it is encouraging that equities have rallied to the point where many 200 day moving averages are either flat or nearly so and nearly all sectors, styles, regions, and countries are above their 50 day moving average, not to mention the fact that many 50 day MAs have an upward slope, there are reasons...
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Now that the outlines of the fiscal stimulus package and the so-called bank bailout plan are fully in the public domain, in other words now that the big news is out, experienced investors know it is time to see if the market action matches the real economy rhetoric. For these are such times when a mismatch...
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A number of market technicians have pointed to the S&P 500 and its approach to its 50 day moving average (see accompanying chart). While such levels have a spotty predictive track record, it does seem likely that stocks are poised to take a breather from their 20%+ climb off the floor (752.44, which...
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My interview with the Chief Market Technical Analyst for Miller + Tabak includes the conditions necessary for a successful stock market bottom, the positive secular story for commodities (especially agriculture), attractive market action in water related companies, and a dismal longer term outlook for...
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Whatever the fundamental rationale may be – November 15th and hedge fund redemptions; capital gains sales in anticipation of tax increases next year; fears of a global recession; concerns re FAS 140 and QSPEs (more on this one in a future posting); S&P 500 earnings closer to $50 with a 10 or...
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As delightful as the rally has been, a key super short-term technical indicator, Slow Stochastics, is registering an overbought reading (above 80) and a cause for a pause. As the accompanying chart* shows, while the near-term indicators, Momentum and MACD, are in fine shape (especially MACD) and supportive...
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Bottom fishers, short term traders, and market timers aside, some investors might be tempted to conclude that the sell oil/buy bank stocks trade is a sustainable trend. If, however, an investor takes a step back and utilizes one of the most consistent longer term technical analysis tools a decidedly...
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The granddaddy of the market confirmation principle, Dow Theory, states that each index (Industrials and Transports) must confirm the other in order for a move (up or down) to be considered sustainable. If one index makes a new recovery (not all-time, necessarily) high or low, the other must confirm...
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There’s a certain feebleness to the current US equity rally that the accompanying chart* shows quite clearly and should be a cause for concern to the bulls. To begin, it is always more encouraging when Momentum (first indicator) is more robust. Failing to reach even the 100 mark is not inspiring. Moving...