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As we search for "the" driver of financial markets, we look at all kinds of things. We pore over government statistics, company financial statements, and analyst research, trying to find that one nugget that will give us a glimpse of the future. Today, though, we're going to turn to literature...
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"But this time it's different!!!" Any time you hear that from a financial analyst, you should run. Or better still, take the other side of his trade! If you're numerically oriented, you know that patterns tend to revert to the mean. If you're historically oriented, you know that...
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The Rise of A New Asset Class, Part 2 Unrealistic Expectations The Boomers Break the Deal A Nation of Wal-Mart Greeters Weddings and 08-08-08 Last week's letter was the first part of a speech I have been giving on what I think will be the rise of a new asset class. This week will be the second and...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
08-08-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Social Security, Baby Boomers, GDP, Economic Forecast, Geopolitics, Stratfor, Muddle Through, George Friedman, Valuations, Georgia, Soviet Union
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Kudos to my friend George Friedman and his crew at Stratfor. If you didn't see the article in this week's Barron's about Stratfor's analysis of the geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices, you missed a really good piece of work. You've probably heard Napoleon's quote that...
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For nearly 30 years, long before it was a charter member of the "Axis of Evil," Iran and the US have been locked in a hate-hate relationship. Walk down the street any Friday afternoon, and you're as likely to hear "Death to America!" as "Hi Ali, how are you?" Three decades...
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As we begin the new quarter, now is an excellent time to take stock of your basic investment thesis. Ask yourself if your allocations still reflect what you think the world is going to look like over the next several months. And as part of that process, I'm here to tell you that making "financial"...
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This week I want to share with you one of the more important tools in my arsenal for keeping up with what is going on in the world. As I've told you before, George Friedman and his team at Stratfor are my go-to guys for geopolitical intelligence. Their insights into this facet of the world are simply...
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No matter where in the world I am, in South Africa, in Europe, in La Jolla, there's one question I get asked over and over, "What about China?" And small wonder. The increasing impact of China in the last generation is just staggering and seemingly accelerating every day. If you're...
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The greyhairs among us remember the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973 and that economists of the time called it an "exogenous" shock to the system. For the first time, geopolitical events had a huge impact on world energy markets. All the financial models in the world got thrown out the window when...
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This week we step outside the box of conventional geopolitical analysis to hear the thinking of George Friedman, founder and chief executive officer of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), on the geopolitics of Israel. George makes the key point that Israel's geography has been fundamentally important...
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I hope you enjoy this special edition of Outside the Box from my friend George Friedman and his team at Stratfor. He talks about the "good war" in Afghanistan and why in some ways it is far more difficult than the war in Iraq. This is a view that is quite different from what we read in the...
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Protecting the border is a big part of the presidential political debates. This week in a special edition of Outside the Box, my friends at Stratfor give us yet one more reason why we should be concerned when we look south. The topic not only concerns security, but our economy. The drug trade is becoming...
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This week in our Special Outside the Box, George Friedman of Stratfor addresses what many believe to be the looming war with Iran, the potential wars' strategic futility, the underlying geopolitical implications, and the inherent threats that abound on account of Iran's defensive measures and...
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This week in the Special Outside the Box, good friend George Friedman addresses the lax governance and control of Blackwater, a private security firm recently embroiled in the accusation of firing upon Iraqi civilians without provocation. George shows us that private security contractors' working...
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Introduction This week in Outside the Box good friend George Friedman of Stratfor delves into that enigma that is Executive power and Presidential elections. George ventures to assess the current President in light of former Presidents, utilizing a methodical rubric of measure to analyze the capabilities...