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The Risk of Recession The Leading Indicators Are Starting to Turn Terms of Trade and US Real GDP Bernanke at the Crossroads Vancouver, Maine, and San Francisco We are halfway through the year (where did the time go?) and it is time to make some predictions about the last half of the year. This week we...
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From my friend George Friedman, founder & CEO of STRATFOR, here's my newest favorite quote concerning economic recessions: "Like forest fires, they are painful when they occur, yet without them, the forest could not survive. They impose discipline, punishing the reckless, rewarding the cautious...
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Special Report Protect Your Stocks From A Correction In This Issue: A Stock Market Downturn Is Overdue Stop-Loss Orders Can Save A Portfolio Safeguard Your Blue Chips With LEAPS Some Funds Go Up During Downturns We Don't Recommend Short Sales An All-Weather Fund For Cautious Investors The Bottom...
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........But First, A Word From Our Sponsor.......... Countries poised to benefit from rising commodity prices: combined into one CD That's the Global Power ShiftSM Basket CD from EverBank®. In one CD, get the currencies of 4 countries rich in natural resources-and whose economies may benefit from...
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There is some debate about whether the recession is over. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a non-governmental organization made up of economists, has a committee that meets and decides after the fact when recessions begin and when they end. Martin Feldstein, the former president of the...
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This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
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2010: A Year of Uncertainty "Rocking Even Me" Prisoners of Our Preconceptions The Statistical Recovery The Great Experiment Whither the Fed? London, Monte Carlo, Zurich, and Stocks "Lying here, during all this time after my own small fall, it has become my conviction that things mean pretty...
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It's All About Deleveraging Commercial Woes The Lights Of Myanmar A Lively 2010 and Buying Stocks This is the season when pundits feel compelled to make annual forecasts. I will make mine, as I traditionally do, in the first letter of January. But already we have seen a wide range of forecasted outcomes...
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Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics The Problem of Seasonal Adjustments The Job Creation Engine A Double-Dip Recession? Dad Gets a Lively Lesson We are clearly starting to get some better data points here and there. But as I pointed out this summer, it is going...
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Long time Outside of the Box readers are familiar with John Hussman of the eponymous Hussman Funds. And once again he is my selection for this week's OTB. This week he touches on several topics, all of which I find interesting. As he notes: "We face two possible states of the world. One is a...
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If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes? Last Business Standing Stimulus, What Stimulus? The Reality of Unemployment Let the Good Times Roll The Quick Double-Dip Scenario Phoenix, New York, and Thoughts on the Internet No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable...
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Catching Argentinian Disease? The Ascent of Money The Independence of the Fed Threatened A Few Quick Thoughts on the Dollar, GDP, and the Recession Uruguay, Philadelphia, Orlando, and then... I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
10-30-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Recession, Inflation, GDP, Dollar, Deficit, Niall Ferguson, Brazil, Hyperinflation, Argentina, The Ascent of Money
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I look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner...
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What We See And What We Don't See The Statistical Recovery A Double-Dip Recession? Welcome to the New Normal Birthdays, New Orleans, and then the Road Trip from Hell Unemployment is high and rising. But if the recession is over, won't employment start to rise? The quick answer is no. We look...
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IN THIS ISSUE: The Economy - More Signs of Recovery Is the Recession & Credit Crisis Over? Obama Adds $2 Trillion to Debt Forecast Economic Assumptions Still Too Optimistic What in the World Are They Thinking? Do They Want Control Even If It Ruins The Economy? Introduction In my June 16 E-Letter...