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We have entered an era of increasing correlation among what were once considered diversified investment classes. That would not be so bad, but overall returns have been reduced as well, almost across the board. As the song says, “Nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.” (For the younger generation...
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“Tail risk (the risk of large losses) is dramatically underestimated by many investors and the tools we have available to manage such risks are hopelessly inadequate. Financial theory which is taught at business schools and universities all over the world is plainly wrong.” This week we turn...
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A quick introduction for this week's Outside the Box. This is from my London Partner Niels Jensen, talking about the problems with long only commodity funds. This is something I discuss frequently but have not written about in some time. Quite simply, many of the commodity ETFs do not deliver what...
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I wrote about Greece in last week's letter. Then I ran across this column in the Financial Times by my friend Mohammed El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco, and someone who qualifies to be introduced as one of the smartest men on the planet. It is short and to the point. ( www.pimco.com ) Then, somehow...
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Today's Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week's Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below is the November commentary...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
11-16-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: China, GDP, Russia, Economy, Niels Jensen, Trade Balance, Hugh Hendry, United Kingdom, Norway, Dollar, Eclectica Fund
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We all know that a large wave of Baby Boomers in the US are approaching retirement. But what about the rest of the world? And what happens when those retirees need to spend out of savings? There is more than just a credit crisis and a government deficit crisis in our future. A rising level of retirrees...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
10-05-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, China, Banks, Niels Jensen, Absolute Return Partners, Europe, G20, Baby Boomers, Retirement, PIGS, Exports, Savings, Brazil, Population, BRIC
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There are those who sweat over every decision, worrying about how it will affect their lives and investments. Then there is the school of thought that we should focus on the big decisions. I am of the latter school. 85% of investment returns are a result of asset class allocations and only 15% come from...
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It has long been my contention that we are entering an extraordinary period of time in which using historical analogies to plot market behavior is going to become increasingly problematical. In short, the analogies, the past performance if you will, all break down because the underlying economic backdrop...
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This week we look at the European bank markets through the eyes of my London partner Niels Jensen, head of Absolute Return Partners. I continue to believe that this is a brewing crisis which could have far more significant implications for the global economy than the Asian Crisis of 1998. In this week's...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-02-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, GDP, Global Economy, Niels Jensen, Absolute Return Partners, Germany, Europe, European Banks, European Union, Austria, Public Debt
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Milton Friedman famously predicted that the euro would not last past their first economic crisis. This week we look at commentary by Niels Jensen that explores the news from Euroland. Can the euro survive? He explores a number of options which are most definitely not on the radar screen for most investors...
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Can the credit crisis get any worse? In this week's Outside the Box my London partner Niels Jensen shows that it indeed can. Banks, and mainly European banks, have large exposure to emerging market debt of all types through both sovereign, corporate and individual loans. Just as banks have had to...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
11-10-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Credit Crisis, Hedge Funds, Recession, The Dollar, Niels Jensen, Credit Default Swaps, Deleveraging, Absolute Return Partners, Yen, Europe, European Banks, Emerging Economies, Iceland
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This week we look at a very solid piece of analysis on the world economy from my friends and London business partners Niels Jensen and Jan Wilhelmsen of Absolute Return Partners ( www.arpllp.com ). I find it is quite useful to read the considered opinions of those from outside the US and particularly...
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This week we look at yet another rather obscure credit market that is in essential lockdown as the subject of your Outside the Box. My London partner Niels Jensen, head of Absolute Return Partners, has written a very interesting piece on the leveraged loan and bank loan markets, which are now upside...
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This week in Outside the Box, good friend and London business partner Niels C. Jensen further expands upon the fat tail dilemma I recently discussed in my "Black Swan" e-letter and why many of the risk metrics we use while in theory are useful, in application are woefully misleading. Niels...