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Yesterday’s posted interview with David Malpass brings into sharp focus a key aspect of the US economic recovery that far too few investors are tuned into. Specifically, the underappreciated dynamic that second, third, and lower tier companies (the backbone of employment growth in the US) may not...
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Now that the S&P 500 has hit my full year target of 1050 (made last December 30 as published in the Wall Street Journal’s “MarketBeat” blog ) - with 3 months still left to go, I might note, cyclical bulls (like me) who have turned increasingly more cautious over the past two months...
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For the past two months, I have made the argument that above consensus macro economic data would lead to above consensus earnings results and that investors would see the evidence of this as 2Q09 earnings season got underway. Based on the reports issued thus far, this argument has won the day as above...
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It should be fairly evident by now that heavy redemptions at hedge funds over the past two months contributed significantly to the recent pounding in the one area where markets are liquid – stocks. Moreover, the deleveraging process continues to impact many hedgies as available capital (for leveraged...
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My conversation with Standard and Poors' Equity Research Chief Investment Strategist includes how stocks tend to perform when one party controls government, fourth quarter of an election year stock performance, first year of a new administration and stock performance, and the earnings estimate split...
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My conversation with the Director of Research for Investment Management Associates and author of "Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-bound Markets" includes the rationale why equities are in a range bound market, the "active value investing" approach to stock selection...
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In my interview with the Director of Global Equity Products for Jefferies & Co. we explored his shallow recession call, fairly strong operating earnings outlook, sectors (and industries within) that look attractive and ones to avoid, and the influence and importance of hedge funds. The length of...
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The economic debate seems to have settled into which letter best fits the future trend of the US economy: V, U, L, or W? The most bullish group, which includes many in the Goldilocks-redux crew, believe in the down (maybe strong) then up US economic scenario. V for victory, perhaps. Then there is the...
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excerpts from this week’s report: Model Growth Portfolio (MGP) “What can I say? Yet another strong relative performance week for the MGP (that makes it 7 out of the last 8, 13 out of the last 15, and 15 out of 20 for the year) lifts the year-to-date relative performance results at another...
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Friday's appearance on BNN TV enabled me to expand upon the rotational aspects of the market as well as other items. The length of the interview is 6 minutes 2 seconds.
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Since “inflection day”*, the equity markets have witnessed a modest increase in risk appetite. This is evidenced by several indicators (credit spreads, TAF and TSL auctions, for example) as well as by the trading action between and among various market indices. To illustrate, the charts to...
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text from yesterday's weekly report: As the "Inflection Day" rally rolls on, a rotational pattern seems to be emerging. The recent emerging weakness in Consumer Staples combined with strength in areas such as Consumer Discretionary and Mid Cap Growth suggest a sustainable near term rally...
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There’s a certain feebleness to the current US equity rally that the accompanying chart* shows quite clearly and should be a cause for concern to the bulls. To begin, it is always more encouraging when Momentum (first indicator) is more robust. Failing to reach even the 100 mark is not inspiring. Moving...
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In my conversation with the Chief Investment Strategist for Forbes, Inc. and author of "Even Buffett Isn't Perfect" we discussed his bearish economic outlook, a cautious equity markets view, why Financials while beginning to look attractive have more work to do before becoming a buy, his...
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My interview with the Chief Investment Strategist for Ned Davis Research includes a maximum equity underweight call, concern re key indicators in the recent market rally, and a sector, styles, and global strategy view. The length of the interview is 10 minutes 2 seconds. Click here to play this audio...