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Yesterday’s posted interview with David Malpass brings into sharp focus a key aspect of the US economic recovery that far too few investors are tuned into. Specifically, the underappreciated dynamic that second, third, and lower tier companies (the backbone of employment growth in the US) may not...
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Now that the S&P 500 has hit my full year target of 1050 (made last December 30 as published in the Wall Street Journal’s “MarketBeat” blog ) - with 3 months still left to go, I might note, cyclical bulls (like me) who have turned increasingly more cautious over the past two months...
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The stock market rally since early March appears to have three distinct phases to it. The first phase was the backing off from the economic abyss. The second phase was a bounce to fair value normalcy. The third phase (the one we are in now) is what I would call the return to business as usual phase ...
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The Fourth of July is just a few days away. So, how about a four step process to investment fireworks for this summer? The media is attributing yesterday’s stock market swoon as being driven by the disappointing report on US consumer sentiment. No doubt it is a contributing factor, however, a single...
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As dramatic as yesterday’s market decline was, there are several reasons to conclude that a market that was clearly fully valued (see last week’s June 9 postings) was one that was susceptible to any signs of economic and/or political areas of concern. On the economic side of the equation...
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Time flies when you’re having fun. For it was a mere 9 ½ weeks ago stocks were as desirable as a hug and a kiss from a Mexican lover, a point President Obama made note of just a few days ago re he and Hillary. For the bulls, these 9 ½ weeks were like the movie of same name –...
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For many, today’s date has a special social significance. For prudent investors, however, today is a day that this year marks a point of caution – unless you buy into one of two arguments being passed about: stocks warrant a higher than average P/E or stocks have made their lows as certain...
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Money has no soul. There are times when investing is a very callous business. Such times are now when investors must dispassionately assess the investment consequences of the swine flu disease. In this regard, it is advisable to recognize that the economic (and thus investment) impact of the virus as...
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It should be fairly evident by now that heavy redemptions at hedge funds over the past two months contributed significantly to the recent pounding in the one area where markets are liquid – stocks. Moreover, the deleveraging process continues to impact many hedgies as available capital (for leveraged...
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Yesterday’s big stock market surge has some serious near term technical analysis legs under it. And the prospect of an attempt to rise to the S&P 500’s 50 moving average (just under 1100) looks achievable. Yet, there are also three non technical analysis reasons supporting a sustained...
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The great value add in moderating events and conducting interviews is the ability to select the topics to discuss and questions to pose to some of the best minds in the investment, economic, and geopolitical worlds. So, here are a few takeaways from this Tuesday’s NYSSA Market Forecast luncheon...
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“U.S. bank stocks may be staging another suckers' rally.” Reuters, July 31, 2008 From time immemorial the four most dangerous words in the investment language has been “This time is different”. Today, however, a new phrase seems destined to join the dreaded phrase group –...
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There is little doubt that many counterbalancing forces are at work in today’s equity markets. The bulls argue that March 17 (“Inflection Day” – see prior blog postings) was the turning point for the longer-term bull market correction that began in earnest last October. The worst...
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There’s a certain feebleness to the current US equity rally that the accompanying chart* shows quite clearly and should be a cause for concern to the bulls. To begin, it is always more encouraging when Momentum (first indicator) is more robust. Failing to reach even the 100 mark is not inspiring. Moving...