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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. The Economic Slowdown Continues 2. Confidence & Employment Remain in Retreat 3. Bernanke Announces Fed’s Latest Plan 4. Is Obama Planning a “September Surprise”? Introduction We will touch several bases this week, including the latest...
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Forecasts & Trends
by
Gary D. Halbert
on
08-31-2010
Filed under:
Filed under: GDP, Consumer Confidence, Inflation, Deflation, Employment, Obama, compensation, Private Sector, stagflation, Economic Slowdown, existing home sales, Personal Income, unemployment, foreclosure
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. The Inflation/Deflation Debate 2. Why Governments Love Inflation 3. Deflation – Beyond Lower Prices 4. The Shock Doctrine 5. What You Should Be Doing Introduction Much has been written about the inflation/deflation debate, mostly by people who want to sell investors their particular...
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Forecasts & Trends
by
Gary D. Halbert
on
08-24-2010
Filed under:
Filed under: Gold, Stocks, GDP, Inflation, Economy, Deflation, Debt, stagflation, greenback emissions, downgrade, double-dip recession, governments, debate, Shock Doctrine
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The Hero's Dilemma: Kill the Dragon or Rescue the Princess? Our previous experiences with "stagflation," as the double economic whammy of slowing growth and rising inflation is known, occurred in the '70s and early '80s. Market veterans still recount the Legend of Former Fed Chief...
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Growth Report
by
Ian Wyatt
on
08-05-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: stagflation, Accuride, FOMC, short profits, oil, oil prices, dragon, short, IndyMac, Western Refining, U.S. dollar, Fed, housing market, inflation, interest rates, WCI, bonds, Bernanke, Volcker
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The Slow Motion Recession Revisited Inflation, Deflation and Stagflation An Update on Myanmar New York "We appear to be entering a period of serious stagflation with sharply rising expected and actual inflation combined with large downside risks to growth and employment." "I would argue...
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THE BIG PICTURE Ok, here’s a Big Picture of where America and we Americans stand today. A fairly downbeat Big Picture so buckle your seatbelts. America has been on the verge of a major comeuppance for many, many years. But its been postponed and postponed. Because the US dollar is the world’s...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
06-09-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, ETFs, Stagflation, Gold, Alan Greenspan, Commodities, Inflation, US Dollar, US Economy, The Principle of Primary Trend, The Fed, Macroeconomics, US Treasuries, Commodity Bull Market, Historical Perspectve, Federal Reserve, Oil, Crashes, Jim Rogers, The Big Picture, Elliott Wave Principle, Recession, Agricultural Commodities, Financial Crisis, Trader Vic, Vic Sperandeo, Manufacturing, Consumer Spending, Recessions, Industrial Economy, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Discounting Mechanism, Reflex Rally, History, Bear Market Rallies, John McCain, Democracy, Capitalism, Real Estate, Robert Reich, Ben Bernanke, Gasoline, Commodity Inflation, Hyperinflation, Congress, Recession Depression, Peter Schiff, Heating Fuel, Big Picture
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OIL VIEW . I’ve been reading a lot about oil, the current state and the history of oil as we see prices keep rising and we all wonder where a top is. So below are some interesting tidbits which I’ve unearthed from the Internet (a great modern day development!) for you to ponder, some obvious...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
05-29-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Value View, Stagflation, Commodities, Inflation, US Economy, Keys to the Market, Economic Data, The Principle of Primary Trend, Geopolitics, US Treasuries, Commodity Bull Market, Economy Weekly, Schwartz Rules, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, The Principle of History, Rallies, Investment Themes, Trend Reversals, Terrorism, Iraq, Iran, OPEC, History, Flight to Safety
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THE BIG PICTURE Last Monday I presented the bull’s three pronged case , that: (1) the credit crisis is past it’s worst stages, (2) that we can skirt a recession or just experience a mild one and (3) that we have good value in stocks today. I offered the bull’s view up for balance, to...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
05-28-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, Inflation, Jobs Report, US Economy, Economic Data, Weekly Letter, Macroeconomics, Economy Weekly, Perspective, Federal Reserve, Government Intervention, Deflation, Recession, Globalization, Bretton Woods, Economic Common Sense, Money Supply, Manufacturing, Consumer Spending, Recessions, Service Economy, Industrial Economy, Spin
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The Principle of History. Knowing one’s history gives us guidelines and a basis to work from. So yesterday I began to compare the last Papa Bear market we lived through, 1973-1974, which encompassed the first really oil crisis, to today’s ongoing bear market and oil shock. I said I was printing...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
05-22-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Shorting, Technical View, Stagflation, Inflation, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Seven Principles, Day to Day Action, Daily Update, 4-Day Rule, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Crashes, Market Corrections, Tops, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Trades, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, Rising Wedge, Trading Rules, Trends, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, 1974, 1973
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How Do You Spell Stagflation? Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation? The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame...
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INFLATION VIEW/FED’S INFLATION VIEW . Out of Touch! Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers February 14 th that “inflation expectations appear to have remained reasonably well anchored.” He says that each time he speaks and I’m totally sick of hearing it because I can’t agree. He must be...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
02-22-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, The Age of Turbulence, GDP, Inflation, US Economy, Keys to the Market, Economic Data, The Fed
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Global Inflation a Problem . We’ve got a growing problem with US and global inflation, no matter what our Federal Reserve Bank says. Although our Fed ignores them, or says they will go down soon, food and energy costs are rising and global, right? Thus higher inflation is a global issue. ASIA . Many...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
02-21-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, China View, Stagflation, Gold, Soft Commodities, GDP, Inflation, US Dollar, US Economy, Keys to the Market, Economic Data, Global Investing
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Recessions Differ from Mid-Cycle Slowdowns in that that are Self-Reinforcing . A self-reinforcing downturn, which normally leads to a recession has begun, reports Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Basically the self-reinforcing step by step downturn process...
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THE ECONOMY Monday, February 18th, 2008: Maybe I’m taking the wrong approach, updating you each Monday on the health and path of the economy. And talking about the ongoing debate about recession or not lying ahead. Maybe the best approach is to look at a couple of the classic indicators of recession...
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In This Issue: How do You Spell Stagflation? Cooking the Inflation Books Gaming the Producer Price Index Consumer Spending is Up, but then Again, It May Be Down A Two Dimensional Problem Saudi Justice New York, Toronto, Europe and Thanksgiving This week we look at inflation. Is it just over 2%, giving...