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US Unemployment Turns Back South A Synchronized Global Slowdown Why Would You Buy a Bond with Negative Interest? First Deflation, Then Inflation New York, Madrid, Tuscany, and Singapore A New Adventure And Bad Dad One of the more frequent questions I am asked in meetings or after a speech is whether...
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In This Issue: The Cure for High Prices Let’s Rewind the Inflation Tape A Shocking Development Another Important European Election Home Again, a “Sports” Injury, and My Conference Today we once again think about the inflation/deflation debate, turn our eyes to Europe and the very interesting...
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The Sputtering Economy Old and Outmoded We Have Deflation Exactly Where? O Deflation, Where is Thy Sting? Mexico, High Noon, and Thanksgiving The CPI was out this week, and it showed a continued drop in inflation. There were those who immediately pointed out that this vindicated the Fed's move to...
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Pushing on a String Let's Shift the Focus An Invitation to an Inflation Party Ten Years and Counting This week the Fed altered their end-of-meeting statement by just a few words, but those words have a lot of meaning. It seems they are paving the way to a new round of quantitative easing (QE2), if...
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This week’s Outside the Box is an incendiary blog written by Steve Keen on debt deflation and GDP growth. I am not certain as to his math (is he double counting debt and consumer spending?) but he does illustrate very well the problem of a deleveraging recession, which I have been writing about...
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I am in Minnesota this morning doing a speech, but do have a very good candidate for this week’s Outside the Box. Tony Boeckh just published a piece by George Magnus on demographics and the markets that I think is very thought-provoking. Demographics is something I think about a lot and you should...
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The Debt Supercycle Somewhere Over the Rainbow The Path to Profligacy Things That Cannot Be Vancouver, Maine, and Europe I have been writing about The End Game for some time now. And writing a book of the same title. Consequently, I have been thinking a lot about how the credit crisis evolved into the...
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It's The Best of Times The Elements of Deflation It's More Than Half Full Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay What's a Fed to do? We get talk about tightening and taking away the easy credit, but we got the fourth largest monetization on record last week. This week we examine the elements of deflation...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
10-23-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Employment, Inflation, Consumer Spending, Debt, Credit Crisis, Housing Crisis, Deflation, Jump Point, Bill Bonner, Tom Hayes, Daily Reckoning
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Killing the Goose What Were We Thinking? Let's Play Turn It Around Detroit, the Red Sox and the Yankees, and Traveling Too Much Peggy Noonan, maybe the most gifted essayist of our time, wrote a few weeks ago about the vague concern that many of us have that the monster looming up ahead of us has...
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Elements of Deflation, Part 2 The Velocity Factor Y=MV Sir, I Have Not Yet Begun to Print There Are No Good Choices Washington DC, San Diego, and New Orleans, etc. Just as water is formed by the basic elements hydrogen and oxygen, deflation has its own fundamental components. Last week we started exploring...
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This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
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There are those who sweat over every decision, worrying about how it will affect their lives and investments. Then there is the school of thought that we should focus on the big decisions. I am of the latter school. 85% of investment returns are a result of asset class allocations and only 15% come from...
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There is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. And this week's letter does just that. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
04-20-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Inflation, Deflation, Japan, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, Bonds, Economic Theory, Hoisington Management, Government Debt, M2
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What happens when inflation once again returns. As this week's Outside the Box writer, James Montier, writes, we may want to start thinking now about inflation insurance and he mentions a few ways to do so. But this letter is a must read for his bringing to light a speech by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-24-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Inflation, Deflation, Japan, GDP, James Montier, Gold, Insurance, Great Depression, Inflation Swaps, Societe Generale, Sovereign CDS, Dividend Swaps, TIPS, Ben Bernanke
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There is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. And this week's letter does just that. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst...