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The Principle of History. Knowing one’s history gives us guidelines and a basis to work from. So yesterday I began to compare the last Papa Bear market we lived through, 1973-1974, which encompassed the first really oil crisis, to today’s ongoing bear market and oil shock. I said I was printing...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
05-22-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Shorting, Technical View, Stagflation, Inflation, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Seven Principles, Day to Day Action, Daily Update, 4-Day Rule, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Crashes, Market Corrections, Tops, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Trades, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, Rising Wedge, Trading Rules, Trends, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, 1974, 1973
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T HE BIG PICTURE : Written Monday, May 19th, 2008 Let’s make the three-pronged bullish Big Picture case this morning. About time, right? 1. The bullish argument starts with the assumption that the “worse financial crisis since the Great Depression” is behind us. Many Wall Street CEOs...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
05-20-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Value View, Inflation, US Economy, Bullish Signs, Weekly Letter, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Recession, Globalization, Financial Crisis, The Principle of Understanding Value
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THE BIG PICTURE & THE ECONOMY Today’s Big Picture view comes down to whether the US economy is going into a severe, long lasting recession or not. My belief remains that we are, that’s where today’s slow-motion economic slowdown is leading us, but the jury remains out & lots...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
05-12-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Commodities, Soft Commodities, US Economy, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Global Investing, Stock Market Weekly, Macroeconomics, Commodity Bull Market, Economy Weekly, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Market Corrections, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Global Trend, Recession
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THE ECONOMY Written Monday, May 5th, 2008: Regular Weekly Overview: Numerous economists are now saying the possibility of an US recession has passed. I think this change of viewpoint began about a week plus back when the Durable Goods Orders–Ex Transports for March rose +1.5%, better than the ...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
05-08-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, US Economy, Economic Data, The Principle of Primary Trend, Weekly Letter, Macroeconomics, Economy Weekly, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Deflation, Recession
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Official Recession Or Not? And Does it Matter? Written Thursday, May 1st, 2008: Yesterday our first look at the US ’s Growth Domestic Product or GDP for short, showed a gain of +0.6%, a little above the consensus view. But the US consumer, who accounts for the bulk of economic growth with our spending...
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I was just asked: “Are emerging markets overpriced?” Let me answer that question for all of us. Emerging markets are fairly valued. Not overvalued, considering their substantial going forward growth prospects but not undervalued either considering they will be hurt if the US paper economy slow down eventually...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
04-23-2008
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Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Value View, Investing Strategies, The Principle of Primary Trend, Brazil, Latin America, Macroeconomics, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Global Trend, Emerging Markets
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A friend from up in Albany emailed me the following questions. I thought my answers may help others: ” I think I understand the basics of why the dollar has fallen so fast of late but I know you will know the details. It seems like there is always controversy about the economic future but consensus on...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
04-22-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Inflation, US Dollar, US Economy, Macroeconomics, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, The Principle of History, Deflation, Fixed Income
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THE REAL ECONOMY VS. THE PAPER ECONOMY The Real Economy . Oil at a record, rice too. Gold hitting $1000 an ounce, silver way up. Corn prices boosted by ethanol demand. Food riots in Haiti, Guatemala, Argentina and more. 24 countries dropping food import tariffs because they are seeing food shortages...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
04-16-2008
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Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, China View, Gold, Alan Greenspan, Commodities, Soft Commodities, GDP, US Economy, Dow Transports, Economic Data, Global Investing, Macroeconomics, Bubbles, Commodity Bull Market, Economy Weekly, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Jim Rogers, The Big Picture, Global Trend
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SCAPEGOAT BLAMING . Boy, am I’m getting tired of the carping! Day after day, article after article. All these writers seem to think there’s something to gain in blaming former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan for the US housing bubble, the credit crisis, and in fact, all our problems. Listen,...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
04-09-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Alan Greenspan, Investing Strategies, Soft Commodities, Inflation, US Economy, Economic Data, The Fed, Stock Market Weekly, Macroeconomics, Commodity Bull Market, Economy Weekly, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Global Trend
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GLOBAL VIEW . Especially Important View Today! I’m looking around at as many global stock markets as possible this morning. To refresh myself as to exactly where they stand and what that bodes for the future. Broad brush thinking-wise, I want to confirm a global uptrend has now started if at all possible...
Posted to
Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
04-08-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Investing Strategies, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Seven Principles, Brazil, Global Investing, Latin America, Macroeconomics, Schwartz Rules, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, The Big Picture, Global Trend, The Principle of Relative Strength
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UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Tuesday, April 8 th , 2008 : Yesterday was the 4 th day in a row the stock market traded essentially flat. I believe we’re now building what the old timers called “a line.” Just means compacted trading action on lower trading volume. Can run for a week to two or much longer...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
04-08-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, Charting, Keys to the Market, Day to Day Action, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, A Line
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Mon day, April 7 th , 2008 : Watching golf over the weekend, I know it’s so boring to many, I was amazed at the gorgeous setting of Punta Espada Golf Club, the Jack Nicklaus Course in the Dominican Republic . The water was blue & beautiful, the waves strong. If I get the chance, & I may, I want...
Posted to
Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
04-07-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, US Economy, Economic Data, The Fed, Macroeconomics, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Market Corrections, Government Intervention, The Big Picture
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HISTORY VIEW. Looking Back Again in History, to 1938 . Yesterday CNBC was highlighting that we have to go back to 1938 to find such a big start (1 day) to the second quarter. Then I watched Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab , say on Bloomberg audio/video that we also have...
Posted to
Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
04-03-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Dow Theory, Keys to the Market, The Fed, Macroeconomics, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Federal Reserve, Tops, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Government Intervention
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The Principle of Understanding History (one of my seven stock market principles). The 1930s Vs. Today . I just started reading another stock market book. This time it’s 100 YEARS OF WALL STREET (2000) by Charles R. Geisst. Turns out it’s a fast and easy read. Thank goodness because that other book on...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
03-31-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Seven Principles, The Fed, Bubbles, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Federal Reserve, Extended Bear Markets, Crashes
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FINISHING UP YESTERDAY’S BANK PANIC OF 1907 COMPARISON. My theme yesterday morning – that stock markets don’t crash during financial panics --was emphasized by yesterday’s price action. Pressure was again taken off the stock market by its big rally. Every time things get bad, the Fed steps in and the...
Posted to
Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
03-19-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Technical View, Investing Strategies, Keys to the Market, Distribution, Schwartz Rules, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Extended Bear Markets, Crashes