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The Impact of Oil On US Growth Did the Fed Cause the Shale Bubble? Oil in 2015 What If We Just Need Fewer Jobs? Cincinnati, the Cayman Islands, and Florida Last week we started a series of letters on the topics I think we need to research in depth as we try to peer into the future and think about how...
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It’s About Your Presuppositions Where’s the Growth? USA: Secular Stagnation or Public Sector Drag? Land of the Setting Sun Draghi’s Turn at Abenomics? The Failure of Monetary Policy Washington DC, Dallas, Chicago, Athens (Texas), and Boston In 1633 Galileo Galilei , then an old man...
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Correlation Is Not Causation The Limits of Economic Models The Source of Growth The Real Driver of Growth Labor Day, San Antonio, and Washington DC “It's said that power corrupts, but actually it's more true that power attracts the corruptible. The sane are usually attracted by other things...
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More Questions Than Answers Read the Tea Leaves Carefully & Expect Miscues Pulling Back the Bamboo Curtain China Beige Book, Regional Overview China Beige Book, Research Highlights Growth Is Slowing But Not Collapsing (So Far…) Trequanda, Nantucket, New York, and Maine I am writing this introductory...
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In last week’s Thoughts from the Frontline I talked about the Age of Transformation , attempting to refute Robert’s Gordon rather stark and gloomy view of the future growth potential of the economy. That letter generated a rather significant amount of reader response, both pro and con, as...
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The End of Growth? Killer Robots The Primacy of Human Capital The Age of Transformation Dubai, Riyadh, Vancouver, Edmonton, and Regina It is that time of the year when we peer into our darkened crystal balls in hopes of seeing portents of the future in the shadowy mists. This year I see three distinct...
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In today’s Outside the Box, Sheraz Mian, Director of Research for Zacks Investment Research, gives us an overview of corporate earnings trends for the past several quarters and consensus expectations going forward, and asks, “How realistic are these expectations?” Not very, he says...
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Two weeks ago I wrote about the current debate over the 2010 paper by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart (hereinafter referred to as RR) on the correlation between debt and GDP growth. I said that the most important part of their work, which is the construction of an enormous database on debt and financial...
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As my good friend Gary Shilling says, in leading off his piece on 2012 investment themes, which is this week’s OTB, “This year is just the first step in the long-run journey that will continue to be dominated by The Age of Deleveraging” – which also just happens to be the title of Gary’s latest book...
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It was Gary Shilling – way back in the last century – who first woke me up to the real whys and wherefores of deflation, with his 1998 best-seller, Deflation: Why it's coming, whether it's good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business, and personal affairs. I had...
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In This Issue: The Case for Going Global Is Stronger Than Ever The US Markets Are Still In Trouble Undercapitalization Emerging Markets Still Undervalued Global Capital Shift Is Accelerating The Biggest Growth Will Be in the Most Obvious Places (and Sectors) Conventional Diversification Won’t Cut...
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This week we look at another except from Ed Easterling’s gonzo book on stock market return projections, called Probable Outcomes. This section is entitled “Game Changer,” and it is that and more. (Again, thanks to Ed for letting us read his work!) “Game Changer” is a thought...
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In This Issue: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions Three Structural Changes Lower Trend Growth Thailand, Phoenix, and Japan "My best guess is that we’ll have a continued recovery, but it won’t feel terrific. Even though technically we’ll be in recovery and the...
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Which Are We Going To Bet On? I knew I would be touching a raw nerve with my last two posts , on patents. But I was really surprised at the divergence of opinion. Entrepreneurs overwhelmingly supported my stance that software patents hamper innovation and need to be abolished, but friends at Microsoft...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
08-23-2010
Filed under:
Filed under: Economy, Growth, Jobs, Consumption, crisis, Cisco, Google, saving rate, IBM, Harvard, Oracle, Kaufman Foundation, Business Week, thrift, entrepreneur, Microsoft, Business Dynamics Statistics, Bush Tax Cuts
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This week we look at some mostly bullish analysis from my friends at GaveKal for the Outside the Box. Much of the letter is devoted to looking at why Europe may fare better than many think (which will make uber-European bull David Kotok happy to read!). But be very sure to read the last page as Steve...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
08-10-2010
Filed under:
Filed under: GDP, Monetary Policy, Growth, Europe, Jobs, Income, Greece, Sovereign Debt, Capital, crisis, money, Wage, German, Export, productivity, investment