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In my interview with Nouriel Roubini's Head of Global Economic Research Mr. Menegatti expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook for the US economy with few signs of a double dip, a stagnant Eurozone outlook, limited concern re contagion from the Greek tragedy, key risks to global trade, and why Gold...
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In my second interview with the International Equity Strategist for Standard and Poors we discussed the S&P economic outlook, the rebound in global trade, the advised investment focus on global cyclical leadership, and risks of an economic double dip. The length of the interview is 12 minutes 05...
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Yesterday’s posted interview with David Malpass brings into sharp focus a key aspect of the US economic recovery that far too few investors are tuned into. Specifically, the underappreciated dynamic that second, third, and lower tier companies (the backbone of employment growth in the US) may not...
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My conversation with the Director of Research for Investment Management Associates and author of " Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-bound Markets " includes the investment significance re the wide gap between operating earnings and GAAP earnings, reasons to doubt China's published...
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The stock market rally since early March appears to have three distinct phases to it. The first phase was the backing off from the economic abyss. The second phase was a bounce to fair value normalcy. The third phase (the one we are in now) is what I would call the return to business as usual phase ...
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Back on August 3rd subscribers to my weekly newsletter - Sectors and Styles Strategy Report - read the following: "China may become the bigger fly in the bullish ointment. Unlike the US, China has spent all of its stimulus package money not on consumer demand related areas (where it is most needed...
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For the past two months, I have made the argument that above consensus macro economic data would lead to above consensus earnings results and that investors would see the evidence of this as 2Q09 earnings season got underway. Based on the reports issued thus far, this argument has won the day as above...
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Europe on the Brink And Then There Was Leverage Too Big To Save Those Wild and Crazy Swiss A Positive Third Quarter? New York and Maine We have avoided Armageddon, at least for now. The cost to the US taxpayer has been a few trillion. Some in the media are loudly announcing the end of the recession....
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Dear Friends: One of the first things you learn about analyzing a company is how to dissect a balance sheet. What assets and liabilities can be deployed by a company to create equity over time? I've enclosed a fascinating variant on this process. Take a look at how STRATFOR has analyzed the "geographic...
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IN THIS ISSUE: Obama Endorses Global Regulation For U.S. Quotes From G-20 Communiqué This Just Cannot Be True, You Conclude FSB Will Be a Giant Bureaucracy - How Will They Fund It? Is There Any Reason To Think It Won't Happen? Conclusions – Could This Really Happen? Introduction President Barack...
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Money has no soul. There are times when investing is a very callous business. Such times are now when investors must dispassionately assess the investment consequences of the swine flu disease. In this regard, it is advisable to recognize that the economic (and thus investment) impact of the virus as...
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There is considerable talk (much of it rather regressive) about the future of the financial system. In one camp are the advocates of a return to basic banking. Think George Bailey and “It’s a Wonderful Life”. Paul Krugman, John Bogle, and Meredith Whitney appear to belong to this group...
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IN THIS ISSUE: Federal Bailouts Surpassing $10 Trillion Government Finance 101 Who Will Buy All This New Debt? Bernanke: Crank Up The Printing Presses Real Storm Clouds On The Horizon Conclusions – Not Many I Can Find Introduction Over the last two weeks, I have discussed at some length President Obama's...
Posted to
Forecasts & Trends
by
Gary D. Halbert
on
02-24-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, The Fed, Recession, Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, Bailout, Globalization, Deflation, Timothy Geithner, Government Spending, Government Debt
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Time for a Reality Check World Trade Is Falling Off a Cliff European Bank Losses Dwarf Those in the US Geithner: "You Can't Handle the Truth" Earnings Will Get Even Worse Orlando, Colorado Springs, New York, and Las Vegas It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
02-14-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: China, Japan, Globalization, Europe, GDP, Earnings, Debt, Euro, Russia, Economic Crisis, Forecast, TARP, Obama, Stimulus, World Trade, Tim Geithner, Leading Economic Indicators, Bank Losses, Exports
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If you are looking for one subject that will tilt an already precarious world economy toward a very bleak future, it is the "Buy America" provision of the stimulus bill currently under negotiation. For nothing in the stimulus bill – not the ill-advised earmark pork of the power starved...