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The Statistical Recovery, Part Two A Recovery Statisticians Can Love A Few Thoughts on the Housing Market Some Thoughts from Maine Tulsa, Birthdays, Weddings, and Paul McCartney A few weeks ago I first used the term "statistical recovery" to describe the nature of today's economic environment...
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.........But First, A Word From Our Sponsor.......... Now in Print: What You Need to Know About America's Economic Crisis On election night, Amazon.com's top-selling book wasn't about Obama or even McCain. Instead, it was a book about the four American deficits that threaten to steal your...
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Before we get into this week's Outside the Box, let me give you a few pieces of data that came across my desk this morning, which will help set the stage for the OTB offering. Fitch (the ratings agency), in a downgrade of yet another 543 mortgage-backed securities of 2005-07 vintage, gives us the...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
06-15-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Housing, Japan, GDP, Recession, Household Wealth, Global Economy, Germany, Europe, Employment, Will Hutton, Paul Krugman, Fitch
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This Way Be Dragons A Housing Update More Prime Foreclosures In Our Future Are We Paying Too Much for Health Care? Naples, London, and Home for June In fantasy novels the intrepid heroes come across a sign saying "This Way Be Dragons." Of course, they venture on, facing calamity and death,...
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IN THIS ISSUE: Is the US Economy Turning Around? The Housing Blues Getting Bluer Adjustable Rate Mortgage "Resets" To Soar Commercial Real Estate - The Next Shoe To Drop? Conclusions - This Can't Be Good For Stocks Introduction It's time that we had a talk about the "conventional...
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Late last week a letter from Jim Welsh crossed my desk. I started reading and found myself being pulled through his very thoughtful letter. I have not met Jim, but think this letter is worthy of an Outside the Box. Jim Welsh of Welsh Money Management has been publishing his monthly investment letter...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
05-04-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Housing, GDP, Consumer Spending, Consumer Debt, Economy, Employment, Diffusion Index, Jim Welsh, Citigroup, Industrial Production, Credit Cards
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IN THIS ISSUE: The Latest Economic Reports -- Mostly Negative Latest Wall Street Journal Survey of Economists Fed's Latest "Beige Book" Outlook is Bleak Conclusions -- What To Believe? Introduction We have clients calling us every day to ask if we believe the economy and the stock markets...
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Solving the Housing Crisis Housing Could Drop Another 20% in Pricing Buy A Home, Get a Green Card A Real Stimulus Package Las Vegas, La Jolla, and the OC This last Tuesday the Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by my friend Gary Shilling and Richard LeFrak. They offer a simple solution for the housing...
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This week we look at a short but excellent summary of the state of the current economic crisis. I always enjoy reading David Rosenberg, the North American economist of Merrill Lynch. He has a no-nonsense style that is refreshing from most mainstream economists. The reality is that things continue to...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
12-01-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Housing, The Fed, GDP, Ben Bernadke, Consumer Spending, Recession, Consumer Confidence, Merrill Lynch, Barack Obama, Capex, FOMC, David Rosenberg
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Market Mayhem & Credit Fears - What's Next? IN THIS ISSUE: 1. The Economy - The News Is Not All Bad 2. Consumer Spending Remains Firm For Now 3. Housing & Subprime - More Bad News 4. Should The Government Come To The Rescue? 5. The Fed Needs To Act On September 18 6. BCA's Latest Analysis...
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Introduction This week in Outside the Box, we take a closer look at the bond market and its underlying drivers. HMIC's Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt anticipate lower inflationary pressures on account of faltering consumer spending and further deterioration in the housing market. Hoisington Investment...
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Introduction Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right, here I am Stuck in the middle with you! - Stealers Wheel, 1974 The recent data on the economy is stronger than was expected. Does this mean that the slowdown we have seen for the past few quarters is behind us? Other data suggests the economy...
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Introduction This weekend I am in La Jolla at good friend Rob Arnott's conference. Princeton Professor Burton Malkiel, of Random Walk fame, will be one of the luminaries at the annual Research Affiliates Advisory Panel. So, with that thought in mind, this week we take a seemingly random walk through...
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Introduction On Friday, I wrote my annual forecast, " The Goldilocks Recession ," on what investment themes I expect in the coming year. This week's Outside the Box will follow up on the subject with an excellent piece written by Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt. In their fourth quarter...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
01-08-2007
Filed under:
Filed under: Mortgage, Housing, Inflation, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, John Mauldin, Bonds, Quarterly Reveiw, Consumer Spending, Economic Forecast
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Introduction I am taking some time off from writing over the holidays, but good friend Barry Ritholtz offered to write this week's letter. It is a very thought-provoking piece on the importance of what he calls the "real estate industrial complex" to the economy. Loaded with charts and...