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Despite the rally in stocks and other risky assets since March 9, many portfolios are still damaged from the events of the last few years. For those who are retired or near retirement, one step you have to take after such an event is to re-evaluate your retirement plan, especially your spending. Specifically...
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Retirement Watch
by
Bob Carlson
on
09-03-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Carlson, Bob Carlson, retirement plan, retirement, financial crisis, retirement plans, stock, stocks, stock market, investments, portfolios, portfolio theory
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Paying off the mortgage used to be part of the American dream and a prerequisite to retirement. Then, times changed. Debt management and the use of leverage spread from businesses to personal finance. It was not unusual for people to enter retirement with mortgages and other debt with no plans to become...
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This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
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THE BIG PICTURE The key thought: History shows the economy can be bad and the stock market good! Understanding that one idea is key to making a logical decision about the stock market here. I tried to get this across at Elizabeth ’s 9 th birthday party to the family Saturday. The stock market is...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
08-03-2009
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Investing Strategies, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Extended Bear Markets, The Principle of History, Government Intervention, The Big Picture, Elliott Wave Principle, Stock Market Lessons, Financial Crisis, Investor's Business Daily, Economic Common Sense, Stock Market, Capitalism, Big Picture, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Financial Media, Bear Markets, Economics, Investor Psychology, 1932, Depression, America, Government, Big Picture View, IBD, Great Recession, depression within a depression, unfettered capitalism, The 1930s, 1932-1937, William O'Neil, clunkers for cash, President Bush, Obama Miracle
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SCHWARTZ RECESSION CONCLUSION . Tuesday, July 28 th , 2009 . Ok, after much consideration, here’s my conclusion as to what unfolds going forward. The economy struggles through but survives the next few years. About 20% of Americans have a very, very difficult time out of work and out of hope but...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
07-28-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Historical Perspectve, Federal Reserve, Extended Bear Markets, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Recession, Financial Crisis, Bear Market Legs, History, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Big Picture, Bear Markets, Depression, Big Picture View, consumer retrenchment, Great Recession, depression within a depression
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Hedge funds used to occupy a small, obscure part of the investment world. They were out of the public eye; few investors even knew about them. Regulators ignored them, as a matter of law. Gradually hedge funds became more prominent. A few of the pioneers of the business became billionaires, drawing attention...
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Retirement Watch
by
Bob Carlson
on
07-23-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Carlson, Bob Carlson, financial crisis, stock, stock market, investments, market timing, modern portfolio theory, portfolio theory, market indicators, hedge funds
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Pilots have a saying, "Any landing you walk away from is a good landing." Even so, some landings are better than others, and pilots always strive for a smooth touchdown. A type of rough landing is call "porpoising." Instead of gently settling onto the runway, the wheels hit the runway...
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Richard Schwartz 's PRINCIPLES OF THE STOCK MARKET A learning, teaching, always evolving stock market letter and advisory service Eighteenth Consecutive Year of Publication ; Letter #1; September 18 th , 1990 Post Office Box 1236 · New Paltz, New York 12561 - U.S. A. · (845) 255-6894...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
04-06-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, Investing Strategies, 50% Rule, Green Investing, GDP, US Economy, Personal Remarks, Bullish Signs, Keys to the Market, Economic Data, Market Bottoms, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Update On The Stock Market, Stock Market Weekly, Daily Update, Weekly Letter, Macroeconomics, US Treasuries, Economy Weekly, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Market Corrections, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Government Intervention, Trades, The Big Picture, Global Trend, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Recession, Rallies, Investment Themes, Trading Rules, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Financial Crisis, Economic Common Sense, Manufacturing, Consumer Spending, Service Economy, Bear Market Rally, Discounting Mechanism, Intermediate Corrections, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Big Picture, S&P 500, Credit Crunch, Energy, Credit Crisis, Economic Trends, Bear Markets, Economics, Mr. Market, Chart Patterns, Charts, Financial Discipline, Job Growth, Trade, Natural Resources, Government, Big Picture View, Theme, Oversold, Real Economy, Alexander Elder, Market Sectors, Dollar crisis, US Dollar Index, Visit of the Three Bears, CCI, Commodity Channel Index, Swing Trading, Oliver Perez
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The swift declines in most asset classes in late 2008 and into 2009 damaged many portfolios. For those who are retired or near retirement, one necessary step after such an event is to re-evaluate retirement spending. Specifically you have to check the rate at which you are withdrawing money from the...
Posted to
Retirement Watch
by
Bob Carlson
on
03-27-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Bob Carson, IRA Benefits, estates, Carlson, Bob Carlson, iras, ira distributions, retirement plan, retirement, financial crisis, retirement plans, insurance, annuities, stocks, stock market, investments, portfolios, income investing
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ECONOMIC VIEW . Rising Inflation Expected . So predicts a whole slew of big names, everyone seems to be jumping on board this train in the last few days. Now Warren Buffett and Bill Gross have joined Marc Faber and Jim Rogers and more in predicting problematic inflation just out there over the horizon...
Posted to
Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
03-11-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Shorting, Investing Strategies, Inflation, Macroeconomics, US Treasuries, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Jim Rogers, Government Intervention, The Big Picture, Fixed Income, Recession, Investment Themes, Financial Crisis, Bretton Woods, Economic Common Sense, History, Commodity Inflation, Big Picture, Credit Crunch, Credit Crisis, Economic Trends, Economics, ProFunds, Inverse Funds, Rydex, Government, Change, Big Picture View, Short ETFs, Real Economy, Market Sectors, ETF, Exchange-traded fund, RTPIX, Marc Faber, Warren Buffett, RYJUX, William Gross, Dollar crisis, Bill Gross, RRPIX
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The net worth of Americans is declining. That is no secret, though the extent of the decline will surprise many. The decline has affected and will continue to affect the economy, stock market, and your portfolio. The Federal Reserve gives a picture of the net worth of Americans every quarter, in a report...
Posted to
Retirement Watch
by
Bob Carlson
on
02-27-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Bob Carson, Carlson, Bob Carlson, retirement plan, retirement, financial crisis, retirement plans, stock, stocks, stock market, investments, portfolios, indicators, market timing, modern portfolio theory, portfolio theory, market indicators
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Last week we discussed how today’s economic distress creates estate planning opportunities. Because of today’s reduced asset values, estate owners can shift assets out of their estates tax at much lower tax cost than they could have a year or two ago. We went over basic strategies for taking...
Posted to
Retirement Watch
by
Bob Carlson
on
02-20-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Bob Carson, Estate Planning, estates, Estate tax, tax-free gifts, taxable gifts, gifts, Carlson, Bob Carlson, wills, income taxes, trusts, homes, estate taxes, grandkids, annual exclusion, grandchildren, financial crisis, investments, portfolios
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There is at least one silver lining in today's dark clouds—estate planning opportunities are being created. Falling market prices and low interest rates are a great combination for estate planners. If the price depression of the assets is temporary, there is the potential to transfer significant...
Posted to
Retirement Watch
by
Bob Carlson
on
02-13-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Estate Planning, estates, Estate tax, tax-free gifts, taxable gifts, gifts, Carlson, Bob Carlson, estate taxes, grandkids, real estate, annual exclusion, grandchildren, financial crisis, stock, stocks, investments, portfolios
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Major structural changes have occurred in the economy and markets, and more changes are on the way. The failure of Lehman Brothers was a watershed event. Investors stopped making even routine transactions, bailing out of even money market funds. The effects froze the economy and greatly worsened the...
Posted to
Retirement Watch
by
Bob Carlson
on
02-10-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Bob Carson, Carlson, Bob Carlson, iras, retirement plan, retirement, financial crisis, retirement plans, stock, stocks, stock market, investments, portfolios, market timing, modern portfolio theory, portfolio theory, market indicators, income investing
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One of my most significant learning experiences came from a basic forecasting mistake. Back in 1998, I looked at 40 years of documented evidence that 50% of all large programming projects ended up coming in late. That set of data was consistent over all industries and over decades. I checked it out with...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
02-09-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: China, GDP, Recession, Depression, Financial Crisis, Growth, GaveKal, Platform Companies, David Ricardo, Joseph Schumpeter, Solow Growth Model, Johann Heinrich von Thunen, Ricardian Growth, Schumpeterian Growth, Louis Gave, Harry Browne