The developed world seems to be focused on Europe, and while the next crisis in indeed brewing there, we must not forget that Asia is a large part of the future and major contributor to world GDP. My friends at GaveKal are based in Hong Kong and have staff in most Asian countries or are in them on a...
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Already Half Way Through a Lost Decade 2. Why is This Economic Recovery So Weak? 3. Where Does the Economy Go From Here? 4. The Debt Ceiling Battle Continues Already Halfway Through a Lost Decade When most people hear the term “Lost Decade,” they immediately think of Japan...
This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
One of my most significant learning experiences came from a basic forecasting mistake. Back in 1998, I looked at 40 years of documented evidence that 50% of all large programming projects ended up coming in late. That set of data was consistent over all industries and over decades. I checked it out with...
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
Filed under: Filed under: China, GDP, Recession, Depression, Financial Crisis, Growth, GaveKal, Platform Companies, David Ricardo, Joseph Schumpeter, Solow Growth Model, Johann Heinrich von Thunen, Ricardian Growth, Schumpeterian Growth, Louis Gave, Harry Browne
Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis The Right Direction, At Least The Jobs Will Come Can We Have a Little Inflation, Please? Those Wild and Crazy Analysts La Jolla, Conversations, and Richard Russell When confronted about an apparent change of his opinions, John Maynard Keynes is reported to have said...
Thoughts From The Frontline
Filed under: Filed under: Recession, Interest Rate, Employment, Inflation, GDP, Consumer Spending, Earnings, Consumer Confidence, Jobs, Richard Russell, Financial Crisis
IN THIS ISSUE: Editor's Notes On BCA & The Other Gary Halbert Obama & The New Age Of Big Government The Economy -- Have We Seen The Worst Of It? Are The Bailouts Necessary & Will They Work? The Latest Disappointing Economic Reports Stock Markets -- Might We Have Seen The Bottom? Introduction...
Forecasts & Trends
Gary D. Halbert
Filed under: Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, GDP, Economic Forecast, Barack Obama, Politics, Bailout, Economy, Scotia Partners, Halbert Wealth Management, Financial Crisis, Deflation, Government, Bank Credit Analyst
2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP The Aftermath of Financial Crises ISM: Anywhere You Look It Is Bad Another Round of Earnings Disappointments A Bear Closes His Short Fund La Jolla, Bermuda, Florida, and Writing I meant to take yet another Friday away from my writing, but as I am researching for next week's...
IN THIS ISSUE: A Look At The Latest Economic Numbers Economic Forecasts Roundly Downgraded Fallacies Of A "Buy-And-Hold" Only Approach The Goal Of Active Management Strategies The HWM Difference Is It Time To Try Active Management? Conclusions -- Don't Miss The Next Bull Market Introduction...