-
I am back in Tuscany and will head to Milan tomorrow early, give a speech at the Bloomberg offices and then back home. But it is Monday and that means it is time for another Outside the Box. And I have found a most excellent offering. Dylan Grice from Societe Generale in London wrote on value for an...
-
The Velocity of Money Our Little Island World GDP = (P) x (T) P=MV A Slowdown in Velocity Dallas and Thoughts on the Economy This week we do some review on a very important topic, the velocity of money. If we don’t understand the basics, it is hard to make sense of the hash that our world economy...
-
A Conversation with John Unemployment Positives New York, London, Monaco, and Zurich This week I am in New York, and have a whirlwind of meetings (and I admit, a lot of fun on the side) and not much time to write. I have been saving today's letter for a month or so, for a time such as this. Damien...
-
"Why" many ask, "is the stock market going up when the bond market is telling us the recovery will be tepid? Isn't there a disconnect?" And the answer is that there is, and this week good friend and fishing buddy Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame discusses that very topic with his usual...
-
The Present Contains All Possible Futures The Ugly Unemployment Numbers Argentinian Disease The Austrian Solution The Eastern European Solution Japanese Disease The Glide Path Option Philadelphia, Orlando, and Phoenix The present contains all possible futures. But not all futures are good ones. Some...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
11-06-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Japan, Employment, GDP, Debt, Economic Theory, Deficit, Eastern Europe, Taxes, Government Debt, Argentina, Austria
-
My long time readers are familiar with Jeremy Grantham of GMO as I quote him a lot. He is one of the more brilliant and talented value managers (and I should mention very successful on behalf of his clients). He writes a quarterly letter which I regard as a must read. I have excerpted parts of his recent...
-
"Everything, including the market, is ultimately empty of a separate self. One market can only be understood and analyzed in the context of other markets and conditions. Supply and demand, in particular, should not be considered in isolation." Long time Outside the Box readers are quite familiar...
-
Six impossible things before breakfast, or how EMH has damaged our industry The Dead Parrot of Finance The Queen of Hearts and impossible beliefs Slaves of some defunct economist Prima facie case against EMH -- Forever blowing bubbles The EMH 'Nuclear Bomb' The Efficient Market Hypothesis, according...
-
This week's Outside the box looks at some very interesting research done by two economic historians, Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley and Kevin O'Rourke of Trinity College, Dublin They give us comparisons between the Great Depression and today's downturn. They...
-
There is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. And this week's letter does just that. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
04-20-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Inflation, Deflation, Japan, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, Bonds, Economic Theory, Hoisington Management, Government Debt, M2
-
While Rome Burns The Risk in Europe The Euro Back to Parity? Really? Back to the Basics Living in Paradise The 20-Year Horizon If I Had a Hammer New York, Las Vegas, and La Jolla When I sit down each week to write, I essentially do what I did nine years ago when I started writing this letter. I write...
-
A Mid-Year Correction Whatever Happened to Decoupling? The UK Starts to Slow A Recession by Any Other Name What's a Central Banker to Do? The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was...
-
China is all the rage for the next few weeks as the Olympics are going on. Many are calling this China's time to showcase itself to the world. I have a lot of friends and analysts who are big China bulls, believing that the next few years will see continued high growth in China, although less than...
-
This week's Outside the Box will challenge a few of your base assumptions. Paul McCulley, the managing director at PIMCO, offers us a kind word for inflation and the reasons that the Fed will be on hold for a lot longer than the markets currently think. And part of that is to avoid a real recession...
-
Why Investors Fail: Analyzing Risk Investors Behaving Badly Tails You Lose, Heads I Win Ergodicity Why Investors Fail Becoming a Top 20% Investor Investors Behaving Badly South Africa, Laguna Beach, and Canada By John Mauldin This week I am in South Africa and am not as connected as I would like to be...