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The Debt Supercycle Somewhere Over the Rainbow The Path to Profligacy Things That Cannot Be Vancouver, Maine, and Europe I have been writing about The End Game for some time now. And writing a book of the same title. Consequently, I have been thinking a lot about how the credit crisis evolved into the...
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Was it only last week I was expressing outrage that US taxpayers would have to pick up the check for Greek profligacy in the form of IMF guarantees? This morning we wake to up the sound of $250 BILLION in IMF guarantees for a European rescue fund, most of which will go to countries that are eventually...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
05-10-2010
Filed under:
Filed under: Housing, Alan Greenspan, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Europe, Economic Crisis, IMF, Greece, Goldman Sachs, Capital, Michael E. Lewitt
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I have been writing about sovereign debt risk for some time. Japan, Spain, Italy and Portugal are all facing serious fiscal deficits and funding problems within a few years. But Greece may be the first country to hit the wall. In today's Outside the Box, we look at a short column by Ambrose Evans...
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My long time readers are familiar with Jeremy Grantham of GMO as I quote him a lot. He is one of the more brilliant and talented value managers (and I should mention very successful on behalf of his clients). He writes a quarterly letter which I regard as a must read. I have excerpted parts of his recent...
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Nearly everyone I talk with has the sense that we are at some critical point in our economic and national paths, not just in the US but in the world. One path will lead us back to relative growth and another set of choices leads us down a path which will put a very real drag on economic growth and recovery...
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This week's writer of the Outside the Box is no stranger to long time readers. Michael Lewitt writes the HCM Market Letter and is one of my favorite writers and truly deep thinkers. He has recently decided to turn his letter into a subscription based model and is meeting with some success, as he...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-09-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, Michael Lewitt, GDP, Global Economy, Government, Depression, Barack Obama, Economic Crisis, Economic Policy, General Motors, HCM Market Letter, DJIA, Bank Nationalization, Eastern Europe
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This week I came across two items that I think are worthy of being in Outside the Box, so I am going to give you both. The first is an essay by good friend Paul McCulley, Managing Director of PIMCO, called "Saving Capitalist Banking from Itself." The second is a recent speech by Paul Volker...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
02-23-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Paul McCulley, Banks, Government, Pimco, Bank Failures, Bailout, Economic Crisis, Minsky, Economic Policy, Paul Volker
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One of the best gauges of an economy is tax collections. No one pays taxes unless they have to, so collections are a real-world, real-time analysis of the US economy. And the best source I know of for tracking taxes is The Liscio Report , by Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood. Tax collections are down...
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Time for a Reality Check World Trade Is Falling Off a Cliff European Bank Losses Dwarf Those in the US Geithner: "You Can't Handle the Truth" Earnings Will Get Even Worse Orlando, Colorado Springs, New York, and Las Vegas It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
02-14-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: China, Japan, Globalization, Europe, GDP, Earnings, Debt, Euro, Russia, Economic Crisis, Forecast, TARP, Obama, Stimulus, World Trade, Tim Geithner, Leading Economic Indicators, Bank Losses, Exports
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The Endgame Employment Numbers Are Worse Than Posted Aye, Captain, I'm Giving Her All I've Got! Problem #1: Deflation Problem #2: Pushing on a String The Muddle Through Middle Conversations With John Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
01-17-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Employment, GDP, Debt, Economic Forecast, Muddle Through, Economic Crisis, Deflation, TARP, Obama, Pushing on a String, Stimulus
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I get a lot of newsletters from money managers around the country, which I try and read as they are written by people who are “in the trenches,” actually making decisions on behalf of their clients. It broadens my perspective. Frankly, most are not all that well written and unimaginative, but who ever...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
01-12-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, Politics, Consumer Debt, Government, Consumer Confidence, Bailout, Barack Obama, Baby Boomers, Economic Crisis, Investor Psychology, Retirement, Draughn Partners, Cliff Draughn
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Yesterday I sent you an Outside the Box from Paul McCulley who supports the government and Fed activity (in general) in the current economic crisis. Today we look at an opposing view from Bennet Sedacca of Atlantic Advisors. He asks some very interesting questions like: Shouldn't the consumer, after...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
01-07-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Mortgage, Housing, The Fed, Subprime, Interest Rates, Portfolio Diversification, Consumer Debt, Financial Reform, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bank Failures, Corporate Debt, Bennet Sedacca, Bailout, Bear Market, FOMC, Economic Crisis, T-Bills
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There is an ongoing debate on the current nature of the economic environment and what should the response be by government. Today's Outside the Box by Paul McCulley takes up one view, arguing that we need a federal response and stimulus package to protect the overall economy and save capitalism from...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
01-06-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Deflation, Politics, Ben Bernadke, Paul McCulley, Government, Pimco, Bailout, TARP, Economic Crisis, Welfare, Socialism, Minsky
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This week I have a special Outside the Box for you. My long-time friend Doug Casey wrote a very prescient piece back in 1997. He has updated it somewhat for today's times. The critical part is a summary of the work of Richard Strauss and (friend) John Howe and their book The Fourth Turning , which...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
12-29-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Economic Forecast, Doug Casey, Technology, Diversification, John Howe, Casey Research, Hari Seldon, Archetypes, The Fourth Turning, Richard Strauss, Baby Boomers, Economic Crisis
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The Economy Gets a Margin Call Where Have All the Consumers Gone? Why Is the Dollar Rising? Can We Actually Muddle Through? The Potential for a Large Stock Market Rally Is GM too Big to Let Fail? New York, Moving, and Another One Leaves the Nest As long-time readers know, my daughter Tiffani and I are...